New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Briscoes Group (BGP) reported 3Q26 sales down -2% year on year as the company pulled back on promotional activity to protect gross margins.</li><li>BGP reiterated its guidance of NPAT of NZ$60m for FY26; albeit we think performance needs to improve in 4Q26 to achieve this target, and there may be some downside risk to earnings with the arrival of IKEA in December and continued promotional pricing pressure.</li><li>Trading on a 12-month forward PE of ~19x on our revised estimates, we continue to view the risk-reward as skewed to the downside.</li></ul>

Briscoes Group (BGP) reported 3Q26 sales down -2% year on year as the company pulled back on promotional activity to protect gross margins.BGP reiterated its guidance of NPAT of NZ$60m for FY26; albeit we think performance needs to improve in 4Q26 to achieve this target, and there may be some downside risk to earnings with the arrival of IKEA in December and continued promotional pricing pressure.Trading on a 12-month forward PE of ~19x on our revised estimates, we continue to view the risk-reward as skewed to the downside.

Briscoe Group 3Q26 Trading Update—Balancing Act

<ul><li>Briscoes Group (BGP) delivered an in-line 1H26 result at the bottom line.</li><li>BGP also guided to full-year NPAT of 'around NZ$60m'—an -11% fall versus FY25 and the third consecutive annual earnings decline for the business.</li><li>We continue to view the risk–reward as skewed to the downside.</li></ul>

Briscoes Group (BGP) delivered an in-line 1H26 result at the bottom line.BGP also guided to full-year NPAT of 'around NZ$60m'—an -11% fall versus FY25 and the third consecutive annual earnings decline for the business.We continue to view the risk–reward as skewed to the downside.

Briscoe Group 1H26 Result—Paying Full Price

<ul><li>Briscoe Group's (BGP) 2Q26 sales update was solid from a sales perspective, but gross margins remained under significant pressure.</li><li>Management commentary suggested that margin pressure continues to be a key challenge.</li><li>We view the earnings risk from here as skewed to the downside, and with BGP trading on a 20x 12-month forward PE multiple — more than three standard deviations above its long-run average — the risk of a material de-rating remains elevated.</li></ul>

Briscoe Group's (BGP) 2Q26 sales update was solid from a sales perspective, but gross margins remained under significant pressure.Management commentary suggested that margin pressure continues to be a key challenge.We view the earnings risk from here as skewed to the downside, and with BGP trading on a 20x 12-month forward PE multiple — more than three standard deviations above its long-run average — the risk of a material de-rating remains elevated.

Briscoe Group 2Q26 Trading Update — The Gross Profit Game

<ul><li>Briscoe Group (BGP) has been downgraded from NEUTRAL to UNDERPERFORM following a significant rally in its share price, driven by its inclusion in the NZ50.</li><li>The current valuation of BGP is unsustainable, as it trades at a high forward PE ratio, requiring earnings to increase significantly to justify this valuation.</li><li>Risks are skewed to the downside due to a challenging domestic consumer environment and potential competitive pressures from IKEA's upcoming entry into the market.</li></ul>

Briscoe Group (BGP) has been downgraded from NEUTRAL to UNDERPERFORM following a significant rally in its share price, driven by its inclusion in the NZ50.The current valuation of BGP is unsustainable, as it trades at a high forward PE ratio, requiring earnings to increase significantly to justify this valuation.Risks are skewed to the downside due to a challenging domestic consumer environment and potential competitive pressures from IKEA's upcoming entry into the market.

Briscoe Group Nothing on Sale; Down to UNDERPERFORM

<ul><li>Briscoes Group's annual shareholder meeting outlined key medium-term initiatives tied to the distribution-centre project.</li><li>Execution risk and costs of the distribution-centre project are not included in current estimates but present potential upside.</li><li>Near-term operations remain challenging with a projected 10% decline in 1H26 NPAT compared to the prior year.</li></ul>

Briscoes Group's annual shareholder meeting outlined key medium-term initiatives tied to the distribution-centre project.Execution risk and costs of the distribution-centre project are not included in current estimates but present potential upside.Near-term operations remain challenging with a projected 10% decline in 1H26 NPAT compared to the prior year.

New Zealand

Briscoe Group Limited owns and operates the Briscoes Homeware chain of retail stores and the Rebel Sport chain of retail sporting goods stores throughout New Zealand, under a limited franchise agreement with Australian company Rebel Sport Limited.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Briscoe (BGP NZ)

Briscoe Group 3Q26 Trading Update—Balancing Act

Briscoes Group (BGP) reported 3Q26 sales down -2% year on year as the company pulled back on promotional activity to protect gross margins.

Forsyth Barr

Briscoe Group 1H26 Result—Paying Full Price

BGP also guided to full-year NPAT of 'around NZ$60m'—an -11% fall versus FY25 and the third consecutive annual earnings decline for the business.

Forsyth Barr

Briscoe Group 2Q26 Trading Update — The Gross Profit Game

Briscoe Group's (BGP) 2Q26 sales update was solid from a sales perspective, but gross margins remained under significant pressure.

Forsyth Barr

Briscoe Group Nothing on Sale; Down to UNDERPERFORM

Briscoe Group (BGP) has been downgraded from NEUTRAL to UNDERPERFORM following a significant rally in its share price, driven by its inclusion in...

Forsyth Barr

Briscoe Group - Scanning Ahead

Briscoes Group's annual shareholder meeting outlined key medium-term initiatives tied to the distribution-centre project.

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)