New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Four NZ-listed retailers report in September against a backdrop that has deteriorated since the positive start to 2026.</li><li>The August ASX reporting season reinforced that the NZ retail recovery remains patchy, but not entirely bleak, with some operators (notably JB Hi-Fi) delivering strong growth in a challenged market.</li><li>Quality of execution has become more important over recent months, and our preference heading into reporting season is for quality operators—with strong balance sheets (Hallenstein Glassons [HLG]).</li></ul>

Four NZ-listed retailers report in September against a backdrop that has deteriorated since the positive start to 2026.The August ASX reporting season reinforced that the NZ retail recovery remains patchy, but not entirely bleak, with some operators (notably JB Hi-Fi) delivering strong growth in a challenged market.Quality of execution has become more important over recent months, and our preference heading into reporting season is for quality operators—with strong balance sheets (Hallenstein Glassons [HLG]).

Retail Sector: Checking Out Reporting Season

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Briscoes Group’s (BGP) FY26 result was in line with recently provided guidance, with NPAT falling -13% on the prior year to NZ$59m.</li><li>Management is targeting a return to record profits in three to four years, suggesting low-teens earnings growth over the medium term, broadly in line with our estimates.</li><li>Given its current one-year forward PE multiple of ~17x (two standard deviations above history), the market is already pricing in strong growth, with BGP expected to grow into its long-run multiple by FY29 on our estimates.</li></ul>

Briscoes Group’s (BGP) FY26 result was in line with recently provided guidance, with NPAT falling -13% on the prior year to NZ$59m.Management is targeting a return to record profits in three to four years, suggesting low-teens earnings growth over the medium term, broadly in line with our estimates.Given its current one-year forward PE multiple of ~17x (two standard deviations above history), the market is already pricing in strong growth, with BGP expected to grow into its long-run multiple by FY29 on our estimates.

Briscoe Group FY26 Result—Delivered As Expected

<ul><li>BGP’s 4Q26 trading update was better than expected, with its revised FY26 NPAT guidance range of NZ$59m–NZ$60m, +2% ahead of our prior expectations.</li><li>The impact on BGP’s bottom line was insulated through solid cost control, as 2H26 opex fell -4% on the prior year.</li><li>We expected the opening of IKEA would have a meaningfully negative impact on the Homeware business.</li></ul>

BGP’s 4Q26 trading update was better than expected, with its revised FY26 NPAT guidance range of NZ$59m–NZ$60m, +2% ahead of our prior expectations.The impact on BGP’s bottom line was insulated through solid cost control, as 2H26 opex fell -4% on the prior year.We expected the opening of IKEA would have a meaningfully negative impact on the Homeware business.

Briscoe Group 4Q26 Trading Update—Cost Control

<ul><li>Briscoes Group (BGP) reported 3Q26 sales down -2% year on year as the company pulled back on promotional activity to protect gross margins.</li><li>BGP reiterated its guidance of NPAT of NZ$60m for FY26; albeit we think performance needs to improve in 4Q26 to achieve this target, and there may be some downside risk to earnings with the arrival of IKEA in December and continued promotional pricing pressure.</li><li>Trading on a 12-month forward PE of ~19x on our revised estimates, we continue to view the risk-reward as skewed to the downside.</li></ul>

Briscoes Group (BGP) reported 3Q26 sales down -2% year on year as the company pulled back on promotional activity to protect gross margins.BGP reiterated its guidance of NPAT of NZ$60m for FY26; albeit we think performance needs to improve in 4Q26 to achieve this target, and there may be some downside risk to earnings with the arrival of IKEA in December and continued promotional pricing pressure.Trading on a 12-month forward PE of ~19x on our revised estimates, we continue to view the risk-reward as skewed to the downside.

Briscoe Group 3Q26 Trading Update—Balancing Act

<ul><li>After a challenging few years for NZX-listed retailers, we are starting to see signs that the worst may be over.</li><li>Australian retailers that reported in August indicated that the consumer backdrop has improved sequentially throughout 2025 in New Zealand.</li><li>For the upcoming September reporting season, we will be looking for updates on recent trading, promotional pricing activity, cost control, and capital management.</li></ul>

After a challenging few years for NZX-listed retailers, we are starting to see signs that the worst may be over.Australian retailers that reported in August indicated that the consumer backdrop has improved sequentially throughout 2025 in New Zealand.For the upcoming September reporting season, we will be looking for updates on recent trading, promotional pricing activity, cost control, and capital management.

Retail Sector Checking Out Reporting Season

New Zealand

Briscoe Group Limited owns and operates the Briscoes Homeware chain of retail stores and the Rebel Sport chain of retail sporting goods stores throughout New Zealand, under a limited franchise agreement with Australian company Rebel Sport Limited.

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Briscoe (BGP NZ)

Retail Sector: Checking Out Reporting Season

Four NZ-listed retailers report in September against a backdrop that has deteriorated since the positive start to 2026. The August ASX reporting...

Forsyth Barr

Briscoe Group FY26 Result—Delivered As Expected

Briscoes Group’s (BGP) FY26 result was in line with recently provided guidance, with NPAT falling -13% on the prior year to NZ$59m.

Forsyth Barr

Briscoe Group 4Q26 Trading Update—Cost Control

BGP’s 4Q26 trading update was better than expected, with its revised FY26 NPAT guidance range of NZ$59m–NZ$60m, +2% ahead of our prior expectations.

Forsyth Barr

Briscoe Group 3Q26 Trading Update—Balancing Act

Briscoes Group (BGP) reported 3Q26 sales down -2% year on year as the company pulled back on promotional activity to protect gross margins.

Forsyth Barr

Retail Sector Checking Out Reporting Season

Australian retailers that reported in August indicated that the consumer backdrop has improved sequentially throughout 2025 in New Zealand.

Forsyth Barr

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