Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite a strong surge in sales in the Sept. quarter, most Indian consumer companies reported weak profit growth given negative impact of inflation, currency and interest rates.</li>
<li>Inflationary pressures from higher raw material costs, rise in fuel costs and higher wages have affected volume growth as companies attempted to effect price hikes to mitigate margin impact.</li>
<li>Leading FMCG companies have temporarily cut back on marketing spend during the quarter to offset the impact of cost pressures on operating margins.</li>
</ul>


Despite a strong surge in sales in the Sept. quarter, most Indian consumer companies reported weak profit growth given negative impact of inflation, currency and interest rates.
Inflationary pressures from higher raw material costs, rise in fuel costs and higher wages have affected volume growth as companies attempted to effect price hikes to mitigate margin impact.
Leading FMCG companies have temporarily cut back on marketing spend during the quarter to offset the impact of cost pressures on operating margins.


Inflation Bites: India Consumer Sector - Rising Revenues, Dipping Margins in Sept. Quarter

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<h3>About The Narrative</h3>
<p>Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. </p>
<p>The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-unilever-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-wellness-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4353:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Wellness (ZYWL IN)</a> </p>
<p>We have separated the quotes to highlight<em><strong> Business Performance, Operating Environment, Commodity Inflation and Margins, Competition, Pricing, Direct to Consumer / E-commerce, Channel and GTM and Outlook.</strong></em></p>

About The Narrative
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) / Marico Ltd (MRCO IN) / Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) / Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) / Zydus Wellness (ZYWL IN) 
We have separated the quotes to highlight Business Performance, Operating Environment, Commodity Inflation and Margins, Competition, Pricing, Direct to Consumer / E-commerce, Channel and GTM and Outlook.

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India Staples -  Hindustan Unilever, Marico, Dabur, Britannia, Zydus Well

<div><div id="annotable-executive_summary-1">The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. </div></div><div><div id="annotable-executive_summary-2"></div></div><div><p>For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on the Demand environment, Business performance, Consumer behaviour, Pricing action, Gross margins, commodity inflation &amp; Inventory, Advertising spends, Marketshare movements, New launches, Capex and PLI, Online and D2C, International business and exports and Future outlook.</p></div><div><p>Companies covered include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-unilever-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a></p></div>

The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on the Demand environment, Business performance, Consumer behaviour, Pricing action, Gross margins, commodity inflation &amp; Inventory, Advertising spends, Marketshare movements, New launches, Capex and PLI, Online and D2C, International business and exports and Future outlook.Companies covered include Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) / Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) / Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) / Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Staples - BRIT, DABUR, HUVR, MRCO

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

<p>This insight aims to track data related to discretionary spends on consumer goods. It covers a range of aspects - from the adoption of new payment methods, consumer income growth and savings data, freight and travel, rural development and agriculture to the availability of finance and liquidity. </p>
<p>The Indicators for the month of June indicate a recovery in most aspects of the economy. Rural Economy continues to be the main engine and is expected to remain so. </p>
<p></p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The data tracker is a joint initiative done along with insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nitin-mangal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1988" rel="noopener">Nitin Mangal.</a></p>
</div>

This insight aims to track data related to discretionary spends on consumer goods. It covers a range of aspects - from the adoption of new payment methods, consumer income growth and savings data, freight and travel, rural development and agriculture to the availability of finance and liquidity. 
The Indicators for the month of June indicate a recovery in most aspects of the economy. Rural Economy continues to be the main engine and is expected to remain so. 


The data tracker is a joint initiative done along with insight provider Nitin Mangal.


Alternative Data | India Consumer Tracker - Rural India Is Firing Recovery

India

Britannia Industries Ltd is an Indian multinational food products company, primarily manufacturing and selling biscuits, bread, and dairy products. Approximately 80% of its revenue comes from biscuit products, with popular brands like Good Day, Marie Gold, and Tiger. The company is headquartered in Kolkata, India, and was founded in 1892.

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Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)

Inflation Bites: India Consumer Sector - Rising Revenues, Dipping Margins in Sept. Quarter

Cost pressures could continue to impact volume and margins for most India consumer stocks. Impact of Inflation, currency and interest rates are key...

Devi Subhakesan

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India Staples - Hindustan Unilever, Marico, Dabur, Britannia, Zydus Well

The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Hindustan Unilever / Marico / Dabur / Britannia / Zydus Wellness

Pranav Bhavsar

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Staples - BRIT, DABUR, HUVR, MRCO

For the narrative, we will be covering commentary from Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) / Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) / Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) /...

Pranav Bhavsar

Alternative Data | India Consumer Tracker - Rural India Is Firing Recovery

This insight aims to track data related to discretionary spends on consumer goods. It covers a range of aspects - from the adoption of new payment...

Pranav Bhavsar

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