Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We touted shorting EEM at 52/53 over recent weeks with risk of a big move lower once we crack 49.50 pivot support opening the way lower from the flat range.</li>
<li>We laid our synergies between flat bearish patterns in HK tech, HSI, EEM, USD/BRL that raised some big red flags that will come to a head in late December.</li>
<li>Expulsive USD moves are unfolding in EM that align with a bearish EEM view.</li>
</ul>


We touted shorting EEM at 52/53 over recent weeks with risk of a big move lower once we crack 49.50 pivot support opening the way lower from the flat range.
We laid our synergies between flat bearish patterns in HK tech, HSI, EEM, USD/BRL that raised some big red flags that will come to a head in late December.
Expulsive USD moves are unfolding in EM that align with a bearish EEM view.


Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Last week's spike in US asset prices, including US Treasuries, in the wake of gangbuster US CPI-inflation data for October, has proved short-lived.  </li>
<li>However, EM currencies have outperformed developed currencies since 1st November thanks partly to EM central bank policy rate hikes, a lack of currency contagion and domestic macro data.</li>
<li>We focus on low-volatility Asian currencies, the under-pressure Norwegian Krone, Polish Zloty,  Hungarian Forint and Euro and the importance of the release of UK retail sales data on Friday.</li>
</ul>


Last week's spike in US asset prices, including US Treasuries, in the wake of gangbuster US CPI-inflation data for October, has proved short-lived.  
However, EM currencies have outperformed developed currencies since 1st November thanks partly to EM central bank policy rate hikes, a lack of currency contagion and domestic macro data.
We focus on low-volatility Asian currencies, the under-pressure Norwegian Krone, Polish Zloty,  Hungarian Forint and Euro and the importance of the release of UK retail sales data on Friday.


FX Round-Up – Calm Before the Next Storm

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

<ul>
<li>The Chilean peso (CLP) has begun to recover after being one of the worst-performing EM currencies over the past 6 months.</li>
<li>I expect CLP to continue to outperform as the central bank is likely to stay aggressive with inflation expectations continuing to rise. Moreover, the presidential election polls have turned market-friendly.</li>
<li>I will be looking for an opportunity to exit from my recommendation to buy CLP against the South African rand, which has worked well.</li>
</ul>


The Chilean peso (CLP) has begun to recover after being one of the worst-performing EM currencies over the past 6 months.
I expect CLP to continue to outperform as the central bank is likely to stay aggressive with inflation expectations continuing to rise. Moreover, the presidential election polls have turned market-friendly.
I will be looking for an opportunity to exit from my recommendation to buy CLP against the South African rand, which has worked well.


Chilean Peso’s Recovery to Continue but With High Volatility

Between July and October, Asian currencies underperformed against the rest of EM. In this note, I address the question: Is the period of underperformance for Asian currencies now behind? With the economic recovery back on track as coronavirus cases drop amid high levels of vaccinations, further monetary easing no longer in the cards, and FX interventions slowing, I expect Asian currencies on aggregate to trade broadly in line with the rest of EM in the near term but not outperform. From a strategy standpoint, I would opportunistically target specific currencies that have underperformed, such as the Thai baht.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

Between July and October, Asian currencies underperformed against the rest of EM. In this note, I address the question: Is the period of underperformance for Asian currencies now behind? With the economic recovery back on track as coronavirus cases drop amid high levels of vaccinations, further monetary easing no longer in the cards, and FX interventions slowing, I expect Asian currencies on aggregate to trade broadly in line with the rest of EM in the near term but not outperform. From a strategy standpoint, I would opportunistically target specific currencies that have underperformed, such as the Thai baht.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

Is the Period of Underperformance for Asian Currencies Over?

A month ago, I recommended hedging broad EM currency exposure with the euro. In this note, I first evaluate how well the hedge worked and then address the question of whether to continue to hold the hedge or not. I demonstrate that the hedge has been very effective based on the hedged returns and I also recommend continuing to hold on to the hedge as risks remain on the horizon.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

A month ago, I recommended hedging broad EM currency exposure with the euro. In this note, I first evaluate how well the hedge worked and then address the question of whether to continue to hold the hedge or not. I demonstrate that the hedge has been very effective based on the hedged returns and I also recommend continuing to hold on to the hedge as risks remain on the horizon.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

How Effective Has the Euro Hedge Been for EM FX?

Brazil

The Brazilian real is the official currency of the Federative Republic of Brazil.  

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BRL (USDBRL CURNCY)

EEM a Top December Short

We touted shorting EEM at 52/53 over recent weeks with risk of a big move lower once we crack 49.50 pivot support opening the way lower from the...

Thomas Schroeder

FX Round-Up – Calm Before the Next Storm

Interest rate and FX vol has subsided with directionality in EM and developed market currencies driven by domestic macro data and monetary...

Olivier Desbarres

Chilean Peso’s Recovery to Continue but With High Volatility

I would be looking for an opportunity to exit from my recommendation to buy Chilean peso vs South African rand as I expect the currency to continue...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Is the Period of Underperformance for Asian Currencies Over?

After underperforming between July and October, I expect Asian currencies on aggregate to perform broadly in line with the rest of EM in the near...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

How Effective Has the Euro Hedge Been for EM FX?

In this note, I first evaluate how well has the euro hedge for EM FX that I recommended a month ago worked and then address the question of whether...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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