Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>As we move beyond the final Fed decision of the year, we can speculate on how the EM space may respond to Powell’s press conference tonight.</li><li>Before diving into that, let’s discuss some recent developments that have occurred in China since our last update on the situation in Beijing.</li><li>While the market and all the mainstream news outlets have been awaiting the third plenum to take place in vain,  China’s Central Economic Work Conference was held the past two days.</li></ul>

As we move beyond the final Fed decision of the year, we can speculate on how the EM space may respond to Powell’s press conference tonight.Before diving into that, let’s discuss some recent developments that have occurred in China since our last update on the situation in Beijing.While the market and all the mainstream news outlets have been awaiting the third plenum to take place in vain,  China’s Central Economic Work Conference was held the past two days.

EM by EM #34: Xi’s Whip and Powell’s Kneeling

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It’s central bank week once again, and that of course calls for us to share our thoughts ahead of the biggest meeting over the next week with Powell being the first to take the stage on Wednesday, expecting to hawk up the rhetoric a bit whilst keeping the Fed funds upper band steady at 5.5%.</li>
<li>The ECB has recently claimed the title as the most dovish central bank in G10 after markets have added roughly 20 bps of cuts in 2024 to market pricing, and markets now price in approx.</li>
<li>115 bps of cuts in 2024.</li>
</ul>


It’s central bank week once again, and that of course calls for us to share our thoughts ahead of the biggest meeting over the next week with Powell being the first to take the stage on Wednesday, expecting to hawk up the rhetoric a bit whilst keeping the Fed funds upper band steady at 5.5%.
The ECB has recently claimed the title as the most dovish central bank in G10 after markets have added roughly 20 bps of cuts in 2024 to market pricing, and markets now price in approx.
115 bps of cuts in 2024.


5 (+1) Central Banks We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoE, Norge’s Bank, BoJ & BCB

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.</li><li>To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch where we run through interesting observations found in positioning data for the latest week (now back on schedule).</li><li>Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about discount rates and swap-pricing of the future of central bank policy.</li><li>As we have addressed, conditions are slowly but surely starting to decrease the risk/reward of going long-risk assets at current junctures.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch where we run through interesting observations found in positioning data for the latest week (now back on schedule).Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about discount rates and swap-pricing of the future of central bank policy.As we have addressed, conditions are slowly but surely starting to decrease the risk/reward of going long-risk assets at current junctures.

Positioning Watch – Positioning for Lower Yields and Weaker USD

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Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

EM by EM #34: Xi’s Whip and Powell’s Kneeling

Despite aiming for growth, China won’t employ potent fiscal or monetary policies; instead, the focus is on boosting confidence and shaping a...

Steno Research

5 (+1) Central Banks We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoE, Norge’s Bank, BoJ & BCB

It’s central bank week once again, and that of course calls for us to share our thoughts ahead of the biggest meeting over the next week with...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Positioning for Lower Yields and Weaker USD

Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about...

Steno Research

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