Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The change to the YCC-policy in Japan caught a majority of investors off guard, but so did the subsequent flows and moves in Japanese markets.</li>
<li>We kept reiterating that JGB yield risks were to the upside, while the JPY could see downside, which is exactly what has happened.</li>
<li>In this piece, we will try to elaborate on why that is and why we see a slow grind to 1% in 10yr JGB yields alongside a move in USDJPY to +150 territory.</li>
</ul>


The change to the YCC-policy in Japan caught a majority of investors off guard, but so did the subsequent flows and moves in Japanese markets.
We kept reiterating that JGB yield risks were to the upside, while the JPY could see downside, which is exactly what has happened.
In this piece, we will try to elaborate on why that is and why we see a slow grind to 1% in 10yr JGB yields alongside a move in USDJPY to +150 territory.


Japan Watch: Flows in JPY and JGBs after the YCC decision

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Main takeaways: Brazilian Equities are on offer and provide solid value for long-only. If commodities are in for a rebound Brazil may be a decent option to seek exposure.</li><li>Plenty of recessionary clouds near mid-term and while fixed income remain the game in town, yields coming down may provide a narrow opportunity for equities. Regular EM readers here would know that we have been bullish on Brazilian Sovereigns since March.</li><li>The fundamental drivers behind this thesis have roughly been two folded: The market being over-pessimistic of the re-ascension of Lula to the office and over-concerned with the inflationary resilience of the Brazilian Economy.</li></ul>

Main takeaways: Brazilian Equities are on offer and provide solid value for long-only. If commodities are in for a rebound Brazil may be a decent option to seek exposure.Plenty of recessionary clouds near mid-term and while fixed income remain the game in town, yields coming down may provide a narrow opportunity for equities. Regular EM readers here would know that we have been bullish on Brazilian Sovereigns since March.The fundamental drivers behind this thesis have roughly been two folded: The market being over-pessimistic of the re-ascension of Lula to the office and over-concerned with the inflationary resilience of the Brazilian Economy.

EM by EM #13 – A sweetspot for Brazilian Equities?

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

<ul>
<li>The CPI report: once again, the inflation momentum is accelerating and inflationary pressures are broadening.</li>
<li>While mainstream headlines would focus on the 9.1% YoY print, I’d like to highlight two more relevant statistics that would worry the Fed further here.</li>
<li>MoM headline and core inflation are the highest in 20+ years: the inflation momentum is not only failing to decelerate, but it’s even picking up!</li>
</ul>


The CPI report: once again, the inflation momentum is accelerating and inflationary pressures are broadening.
While mainstream headlines would focus on the 9.1% YoY print, I’d like to highlight two more relevant statistics that would worry the Fed further here.
MoM headline and core inflation are the highest in 20+ years: the inflation momentum is not only failing to decelerate, but it’s even picking up!


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>USD/RUB was a high conviction long at 75 at 81. Today's gap higher warrants a closer look at where to reduce. Next major projection lies at 112.80.</li>
<li>More importantly the knock on effect into other EM FX is unfolding. USD/BRL met our macro USD long entry point. A major USD breakout is in the works for Q2/Q3.</li>
<li>NZD and AUD short focus as risk off bets. NZD compelling bear wedge stands out.</li>
</ul>


USD/RUB was a high conviction long at 75 at 81. Today's gap higher warrants a closer look at where to reduce. Next major projection lies at 112.80.
More importantly the knock on effect into other EM FX is unfolding. USD/BRL met our macro USD long entry point. A major USD breakout is in the works for Q2/Q3.
NZD and AUD short focus as risk off bets. NZD compelling bear wedge stands out.


iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We touted shorting EEM at 52/53 over recent weeks with risk of a big move lower once we crack 49.50 pivot support opening the way lower from the flat range.</li>
<li>We laid our synergies between flat bearish patterns in HK tech, HSI, EEM, USD/BRL that raised some big red flags that will come to a head in late December.</li>
<li>Expulsive USD moves are unfolding in EM that align with a bearish EEM view.</li>
</ul>


We touted shorting EEM at 52/53 over recent weeks with risk of a big move lower once we crack 49.50 pivot support opening the way lower from the flat range.
We laid our synergies between flat bearish patterns in HK tech, HSI, EEM, USD/BRL that raised some big red flags that will come to a head in late December.
Expulsive USD moves are unfolding in EM that align with a bearish EEM view.


Brazil

The Brazilian real is the official currency of the Federative Republic of Brazil.  

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Japan Watch: Flows in JPY and JGBs after the YCC decision

The change to the YCC-policy in Japan caught a majority of investors off guard, but so did the subsequent flows and moves in Japanese markets. We...

Steno Research

EM by EM #13 – A sweetspot for Brazilian Equities?

Main takeaways:Brazilian Equities are on offer and provide solid value for long-only. If commodities are in for a rebound Brazil may be a decent...

Steno Research

Nothing Else (Except Macro) Matters

While mainstream headlines would focus on the 9.1% YoY print, I’d like to highlight two more relevant statistics that would worry the Fed further...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

USD/RUB Long Lock in Zone

USD/RUB was a high conviction long at 75 at 81. Today's gap higher warrants a closer look at where to reduce. Next major projection lies at 112.80.

Thomas Schroeder

EEM a Top December Short

We touted shorting EEM at 52/53 over recent weeks with risk of a big move lower once we crack 49.50 pivot support opening the way lower from the...

Thomas Schroeder

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