Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and physical resistance at the 53 trendline barrier.</p><p>This is an undercurrent not apparent in the DXY or USD weakness in Asia (risk-on).</p><p>USD/BRL macro bullish flat may need more time but is setting up for a macro USD breakout higher. USD/ZAR bull triangle also taking shape.</p><p>EEM relative chart due to break lower vs SPX and must see varying degrees of USD strength that will stems from BRL and ZAR sensitivity.</p>

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and physical resistance at the 53 trendline barrier.This is an undercurrent not apparent in the DXY or USD weakness in Asia (risk-on).USD/BRL macro bullish flat may need more time but is setting up for a macro USD breakout higher. USD/ZAR bull triangle also taking shape.EEM relative chart due to break lower vs SPX and must see varying degrees of USD strength that will stems from BRL and ZAR sensitivity.

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Macroeconomics

<p>In early July, our sentiment indicators flagged a pending downturn in Brazilian equities as we saw the emergence of political risk in a wave of anti-Bolsonaro protests and new corruption scandals, along with Lula's re-emergence as the favored candidate for '22 (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshots-brazil-macro-sentiment-peaking-pboc-easing-not-a-buy-signal-yet-crypto-sentiment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54390" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshots:  Brazil Macro Sentiment Peaking, PBOC Easing Not a Buy Signal Yet, Crypto Sentiment.)</a> In addition, we flagged Brazil's hydro crisis as key potential driver of inflationary shock, with spot electricity pricing set to double.</p><p>Although Brazil remains fragile, we are seeing early signs of a bottoming process as sentiment momentum has turned less negative following the Q3 selloff, and is no longer accelerating to the downside after 3 months of relentless deterioration from June to September:</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/233/606/original/BRAZIL_SENTIMENT_OCTOBER.png?1633429628" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="233606"></figure><div class="content-caption">Brazil Sentiment Momentum (90D, STDEV Units) vs. EWZ</div> Correlation between our Brazil Macro Sentiment indicator and the iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ) has been 92% in the T6M, 48% T12M and 47% T24M.  Brazil underperformed sharply in Q3, down -21% in USD terms vs. MSCI EM's -9%, with BRL down -9%.  Following this outlier move, it appears that EM fund positioning has turned neutral to slightly OW Brazil (along with only 2 other OWs in EM - Russia and India - as per EPFR.)</section><section class="figure"></section><div class="content-highlight"><section class="figure">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </section></div>

In early July, our sentiment indicators flagged a pending downturn in Brazilian equities as we saw the emergence of political risk in a wave of anti-Bolsonaro protests and new corruption scandals, along with Lula's re-emergence as the favored candidate for '22 (see TMI Snapshots:  Brazil Macro Sentiment Peaking, PBOC Easing Not a Buy Signal Yet, Crypto Sentiment.) In addition, we flagged Brazil's hydro crisis as key potential driver of inflationary shock, with spot electricity pricing set to double.Although Brazil remains fragile, we are seeing early signs of a bottoming process as sentiment momentum has turned less negative following the Q3 selloff, and is no longer accelerating to the downside after 3 months of relentless deterioration from June to September:Brazil Sentiment Momentum (90D, STDEV Units) vs. EWZ Correlation between our Brazil Macro Sentiment indicator and the iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ) has been 92% in the T6M, 48% T12M and 47% T24M.  Brazil underperformed sharply in Q3, down -21% in USD terms vs. MSCI EM's -9%, with BRL down -9%.  Following this outlier move, it appears that EM fund positioning has turned neutral to slightly OW Brazil (along with only 2 other OWs in EM - Russia and India - as per EPFR.)TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Early Signs of Bottoming in Brazil Macro Sentiment

<ul>
<li>After a remarkable recovery from March to late June, TMI's Brazil Macro Sentiment indicator has been losing momentum in recent weeks together with BRL sentiment; political risk has resurfaced with the Bolsonaro vaccine scandal and Lula's lead in the polls</li>
<li>Our PBOC Easing-Tightening Diffusion suggests further downside to Chinese 10yr yields and the China FXI, having been strongly negatively correlated with both</li>
<li>While cryptocurrency sentiment remains subdued, negative momentum peaked in June; environmental concerns appear to be easing on the margin, aided by proof-of-stake optimism</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


After a remarkable recovery from March to late June, TMI's Brazil Macro Sentiment indicator has been losing momentum in recent weeks together with BRL sentiment; political risk has resurfaced with the Bolsonaro vaccine scandal and Lula's lead in the polls
Our PBOC Easing-Tightening Diffusion suggests further downside to Chinese 10yr yields and the China FXI, having been strongly negatively correlated with both
While cryptocurrency sentiment remains subdued, negative momentum peaked in June; environmental concerns appear to be easing on the margin, aided by proof-of-stake optimism
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots:  Brazil Macro Sentiment Peaking, PBOC Easing Not a Buy Signal Yet, Crypto Sentiment

<p>USD shows lead lows versus IDR, THB and INR that are trending higher already ahead of the likes of the SGD and KRW. USD/ZAR is making a macro low near 14 that has our attention and will see the EM complex follow this lead.</p><p>DXY staged an impressive reversal Friday off of the 90.40 buy support (trendline and price) but our attention is centered around more bullish macro signals unfolding in the weekly cycle.</p><p>A dollar low align nicely with our call for an SPX top near wedge line resistance. Short have been recommended in EEM and EWZ on the back of a USD low and rally cycle.</p>

USD shows lead lows versus IDR, THB and INR that are trending higher already ahead of the likes of the SGD and KRW. USD/ZAR is making a macro low near 14 that has our attention and will see the EM complex follow this lead.DXY staged an impressive reversal Friday off of the 90.40 buy support (trendline and price) but our attention is centered around more bullish macro signals unfolding in the weekly cycle.A dollar low align nicely with our call for an SPX top near wedge line resistance. Short have been recommended in EEM and EWZ on the back of a USD low and rally cycle.

<p>Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a USD low base to form as a rally platform for a risk off cycle in May/June.</p><p>Expect some key lows for the USD in EM to pressure EM equities in coming months. USD in Asia bearish tactically into targeted lows to reverse positioning to long the USD.</p>

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a USD low base to form as a rally platform for a risk off cycle in May/June.Expect some key lows for the USD in EM to pressure EM equities in coming months. USD in Asia bearish tactically into targeted lows to reverse positioning to long the USD.

Brazil

The Brazilian real is the official currency of the Federative Republic of Brazil.  

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BRL (USDBRL CURNCY)

TRY Bleed into EEM

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and...

Thomas Schroeder

TMI Snapshot: Early Signs of Bottoming in Brazil Macro Sentiment

Our Brazil macro sentiment indicators are showing early signs of bottoming as we see improvement in the hydro crisis, "peak unrest" and other...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshots: Brazil Macro Sentiment Peaking, PBOC Easing Not a Buy Signal Yet, Crypto Sentiment

After a remarkable 3-month recovery, our Brazil Macro Sentiment has pulled back as political risk is resurfacing with Bolsonaro's vaccine scandal...

Elan Gore

USD Low Ties in with Risk Peak

DXY staged an impressive reversal Friday off of the 90.40 buy support (trendline and price) but our attention is centered around more bullish macro...

Thomas Schroeder

USD Buy Levels to Sync with Peak in Risk

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a...

Thomas Schroeder

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