Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Semiconductor Industry Association in the US released the latest WSTS figures for January chip revenues.  Monthly revenues are down 15.6% from January of 2018.  While this is not a surprise to our clients it is frightening to those who anticipated that 2019 would be a continuation of the bonanza enjoyed in 2018.

The Semiconductor Industry Association in the US released the latest WSTS figures for January chip revenues.  Monthly revenues are down 15.6% from January of 2018.  While this is not a surprise to our clients it is frightening to those who anticipated that 2019 would be a continuation of the bonanza enjoyed in 2018.

January Chip Revenues Down 15.6% Year-On-Year

This is the time of year that Objective Analysis releases its semiconductor forecast.  This post is based upon a video posted on the WeSRCH website that explains the Objective Analysis 2019 semiconductor forecast.Although accurate semiconductor forecasts are straightforward to produce, the consistently-accurate methodology spelled out in this Insight is rarely used.The forecast predicts that the downturn that the industry is currently entering will be longer than most, with profits eluding chip companies until 2022.

This is the time of year that Objective Analysis releases its semiconductor forecast.  This post is based upon a video posted on the WeSRCH website that explains the Objective Analysis 2019 semiconductor forecast.Although accurate semiconductor forecasts are straightforward to produce, the consistently-accurate methodology spelled out in this Insight is rarely used.The forecast predicts that the downturn that the industry is currently entering will be longer than most, with profits eluding chip companies until 2022.

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<h2>TSMC's 30th Anniversary Celebration Forum</h2><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11230" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1">Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (2330 TT)</a> is holding its 30th Anniversary Celebration Forum on October 23 today, inviting the key customers and supplier (which total have over US$1.2tn market cap) to join a panel discussion. The topic of the panel discussion is “Semiconductors: the Next 10 Years”. Chairman Dr. Morris Chang has personally moderated a discussion between Jensen Huang (President &amp; CEO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5891" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1">Nvidia Corp (NVDA US)</a> ), Steve Mollenkopf (CEO…

TSMC's 30th Anniversary Celebration ForumTaiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (2330 TT) is holding its 30th Anniversary Celebration Forum on October 23 today, inviting the key customers and supplier (which total have over US$1.2tn market cap) to join a panel discussion. The topic of the panel discussion is “Semiconductors: the Next 10 Years”. Chairman Dr. Morris Chang has personally moderated a discussion between Jensen Huang (President &amp; CEO, Nvidia Corp (NVDA US) ), Steve Mollenkopf (CEO…

TSMC's 30th Anniversary Celebration - Takeaways from Panel Discussion on Semis: The Next 10 Years

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to current first movers from Tesla to Nvidia look excessive.</li>
<li>It’s striking that Wal-Mart and GM are outperforming Amazon and Tesla, while Intel is outperforming AMD as it reinvents itself as an AI player - some incumbents are adapting fast to disruption risks.</li>
<li>I’ve been covering AI regularly since 2013/4 as a theme, but every IB tech analyst is now an…</li>
</ul>


The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to current first movers from Tesla to Nvidia look excessive.
It’s striking that Wal-Mart and GM are outperforming Amazon and Tesla, while Intel is outperforming AMD as it reinvents itself as an AI player - some incumbents are adapting fast to disruption risks.
I’ve been covering AI regularly since 2013/4 as a theme, but every IB tech analyst is now an…


Incumbent 'Second Mover' Advantage as AI Hype Risks Reality Check...

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We revise down <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a>’s full-year 2026 revenue growth forecast revised down from original 47% to 38–40%, still far exceeding last year’s 30% growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a>’s 1Q26 revenue YoY +2–3%, better than original expectations (previously feared a 1–2% decline)</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a>’s 2026 capex reaches NT$50 billion, with cash dividend only NT$1 + 0.5 shares, lowering yield</li>
</ul>


We revise down King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)’s full-year 2026 revenue growth forecast revised down from original 47% to 38–40%, still far exceeding last year’s 30% growth.

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)’s 1Q26 revenue YoY +2–3%, better than original expectations (previously feared a 1–2% decline)

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)’s 2026 capex reaches NT$50 billion, with cash dividend only NT$1 + 0.5 shares, lowering yield


KYEC (2449.TT): 2026 Growth Forecast Cut to 38–40% from 47%, Still Far Above 2025.

United States

Broadcom Corporation provides integrated silicon solutions that enable broadband digital data transmission of voice, data, and video content to the home and within the business enterprise.  The Company designs, develops, and supplies integrated circuits for cable set-top boxes, cable modems, high-speed networking, direct satellite and digital broadcast, and digital subscriber line.

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Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US)

January Chip Revenues Down 15.6% Year-On-Year

The Semiconductor Industry Association in the US released the latest WSTS figures for January chip revenues. Monthly revenues are down 15.6% from...

Jim Handy

Forecasting the Semiconductor Market

This is the time of year that Objective Analysis releases its semiconductor forecast. This post is based upon a video posted on the WeSRCH website...

Jim Handy

TSMC's 30th Anniversary Celebration - Takeaways from Panel Discussion on Semis: The Next 10 Years

TSMC's 30th Anniversary Celebration ForumTaiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (2330 TT) is holding its 30th Anniversary Celebration Forum on October...

Andrew Lu

Incumbent 'Second Mover' Advantage as AI Hype Risks Reality Check...

The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to...

Sean Maher

KYEC (2449.TT): 2026 Growth Forecast Cut to 38–40% from 47%, Still Far Above 2025.

KYEC revises down 2026 revenue growth forecast to 38-40%, still exceeding last year's growth, with 1Q26 revenue YoY +2-3% better than expected....

Patrick Liao

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