European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>GIP/Brookfield/ACS weigh launching a €15 billion unsolicited offer for Atlantia. Blackstone may partner with the Benettons to acquire Atlantia at €24/share (26% premium ). Italian Government's role will be key.</li>
<li>Atlantia trades at higher multiples than ACS (EV/22e EBITDA: 12.8x vs 3.2x, Capital IQ consensus). A hypothetical ACS/Abertis would become a world leader in infrastructure, but leverage is key. </li>
<li>The opposition of Edizione makes the operation difficult/more expensive. A joint-bid Edizione/Blackstone, would force the GIP-led group to present an improved offer. Nearly 50% of Atlantia's NAV is cash.</li>
</ul>


GIP/Brookfield/ACS weigh launching a €15 billion unsolicited offer for Atlantia. Blackstone may partner with the Benettons to acquire Atlantia at €24/share (26% premium ). Italian Government's role will be key.
Atlantia trades at higher multiples than ACS (EV/22e EBITDA: 12.8x vs 3.2x, Capital IQ consensus). A hypothetical ACS/Abertis would become a world leader in infrastructure, but leverage is key. 
The opposition of Edizione makes the operation difficult/more expensive. A joint-bid Edizione/Blackstone, would force the GIP-led group to present an improved offer. Nearly 50% of Atlantia's NAV is cash.


<ul>
<li>Brookfield has agreed to acquire (scheme of arrangement) underperforming Hibernia REIT at €1.60 + €0.034 dividend, a 35.6% premium and 5.7% discount to EPRA NTA (above other recent deals in the sector).</li>
<li>Hibernia's shares are trading at 0.92x BVPS; the offer represents a premium to peers both on trailing and forward 12-month EV/revenue. Capital IQ consensus expects little improvement in EPS growth.</li>
<li>Consideration looks fair and terms are final (except in case of competing offers). Gross spread is 1.22%, 6.54% annualised (assuming settlement on 15 June). Long HBRN ID.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield has agreed to acquire (scheme of arrangement) underperforming Hibernia REIT at €1.60 + €0.034 dividend, a 35.6% premium and 5.7% discount to EPRA NTA (above other recent deals in the sector).
Hibernia's shares are trading at 0.92x BVPS; the offer represents a premium to peers both on trailing and forward 12-month EV/revenue. Capital IQ consensus expects little improvement in EPS growth.
Consideration looks fair and terms are final (except in case of competing offers). Gross spread is 1.22%, 6.54% annualised (assuming settlement on 15 June). Long HBRN ID.


Brookfield/Hibernia REIT: Agreed Fair Offer

<ul>
<li>Brookfield intends to launch an all-cash voluntary and conditional (50%+1) offer for underperforming, leveraged and Belgium-portfolio concentrated <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/befimmo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21316:1" rel="noopener">Befimmo SA (BEFB BB)</a> at a 52% premium, 0.82x P/Fwd BV and 21.3x equity value/FFOe.</li>
<li>The offer represents a 21% discount to EPRA NTA (€60.32/share), large in comparison with other recent deals in the European space (in line with EPRA NTA).</li>
<li>Considering the share price underperformance, shareholders are likely to take the cash. Gross spread is -0.1%. Trading volume has been rather high over the last sessions.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield intends to launch an all-cash voluntary and conditional (50%+1) offer for underperforming, leveraged and Belgium-portfolio concentrated Befimmo SA (BEFB BB) at a 52% premium, 0.82x P/Fwd BV and 21.3x equity value/FFOe.
The offer represents a 21% discount to EPRA NTA (€60.32/share), large in comparison with other recent deals in the European space (in line with EPRA NTA).
Considering the share price underperformance, shareholders are likely to take the cash. Gross spread is -0.1%. Trading volume has been rather high over the last sessions.


Brookfield/Befimmo: Recommended (Cheap) Cash Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>AFR revealed late Saturday that Brookfield and Atlassian billionaire and recent green warrior Mike Cannon-Brookes had lobbed an A$8bn (4.7% premium) bid for AGL ahead of its vote to split.</li>
<li>The bid is too low, and would be fraught with competition issues, but it begs the question of whether the company would be better un-split and made greener, faster.</li>
<li>Other megacaps out there have expressed interest in owning Australian integrated utilities, and there are plans on the drawing board which would allow greening if more firming capacity investment arrived.</li>
</ul>


AFR revealed late Saturday that Brookfield and Atlassian billionaire and recent green warrior Mike Cannon-Brookes had lobbed an A$8bn (4.7% premium) bid for AGL ahead of its vote to split.
The bid is too low, and would be fraught with competition issues, but it begs the question of whether the company would be better un-split and made greener, faster.
Other megacaps out there have expressed interest in owning Australian integrated utilities, and there are plans on the drawing board which would allow greening if more firming capacity investment arrived.


Brookfield/Cannon-Brookes Lowball Bid for AGL (AGL AU) Likely to Get the Kibosh.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> after the close of trading on 4 February and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arena-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12209:1" rel="noopener">Arena Reit (ARF AU)</a> will be included.</li>
<li>With this change announced, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telix-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26052:1" rel="noopener">Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU)</a> is a high probability inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> next week when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arena-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12209:1" rel="noopener">Arena Reit (ARF AU)</a> has outperformed its peers over the last year and now trades at higher valuations. We would use price spikes on inclusion to rotate into its peers.</li>
</ul>



Ausnet Services (AST AU) will be deleted from the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) after the close of trading on 4 February and Arena Reit (ARF AU) will be included.
With this change announced, Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) is a high probability inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) next week when Sydney Airport (SYD AU) will be deleted.

Arena Reit (ARF AU) has outperformed its peers over the last year and now trades at higher valuations. We would use price spikes on inclusion to rotate into its peers.


ASX200 Index Rebalance: Arena REIT to Replace Ausnet

Canada

Brookfield Corporation operates as an asset management company. The Company invests in long-life, high-quality assets and businesses, as well as focuses on real estate, infrastructure, and renewable power sectors. Brookfield serves customers worldwide.

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Brookfield (BN CN)

Atlantia in Play?

The GIP/Brookfield/ACS deal seems a priori difficult, due to the size of Atlantia (for ACS) but above all because of the possibility that the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Brookfield/Hibernia REIT: Agreed Fair Offer

Brookfield agreed to acquire Hibernia Reit for €1.09 billion (scheme of agreement). The board of Hibernia recommends shareholders accept what I...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Brookfield/Befimmo: Recommended (Cheap) Cash Offer

Brookfield takes advantage of the discount to NAV of Befimmo to launch a €1.4 bin offer at a 52% premium. Considering 2-year share price...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Brookfield/Cannon-Brookes Lowball Bid for AGL (AGL AU) Likely to Get the Kibosh.

Brookfield and billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes presented a bid to buy out AGL; the Board met Sunday. I expect it gets no play, but recent coal...

Travis Lundy

ASX200 Index Rebalance: Arena REIT to Replace Ausnet

Arena REIT will replace Ausnet in the ASX200 at the close on 4 Feb. That should mean Telix Pharma replaces Sydney Airport at the close on 9 Feb....

Brian Freitas

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