ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia's</a> 3Q2023 results were far more illuminating and encouraging than the last 2Qs, with more progress towards adjusted EBITDA breakeven, with much more colour on its new initiatives.</li>
<li>The company's focus on budget consumers and more affordable product offerings are already expanding its TAM and improving product density and productivity, speeding progress towards productivity. </li>
<li>GoTo will continue to invest in growth, which may mean it misses its 4Q adjusted EBITDA breakeven target but it has reduced cash burn significantly giving it more breathing space.</li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia's 3Q2023 results were far more illuminating and encouraging than the last 2Qs, with more progress towards adjusted EBITDA breakeven, with much more colour on its new initiatives.
The company's focus on budget consumers and more affordable product offerings are already expanding its TAM and improving product density and productivity, speeding progress towards productivity. 
GoTo will continue to invest in growth, which may mean it misses its 4Q adjusted EBITDA breakeven target but it has reduced cash burn significantly giving it more breathing space.


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - New Initiatives Gaining Traction and Increasing Productivity

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> 3Q2023 results confirmed that it is on track to achieving EBITDA breakeven in 4Q2023, with strong revenue growth and a significant improvement in its contribution margin.</li>
<li>The was a slight slowdown in marketplace revenue QoQ due to a high Lebaran base, mainly due to slower gaming. 4Q2023 should see a strong recovery and higher take rates. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak</a> looks to be pressing all the right buttons but more granularity on what is driving higher take rates would be well-received . Valuations look attractive relative to peers.</li>
</ul>



Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) 3Q2023 results confirmed that it is on track to achieving EBITDA breakeven in 4Q2023, with strong revenue growth and a significant improvement in its contribution margin.
The was a slight slowdown in marketplace revenue QoQ due to a high Lebaran base, mainly due to slower gaming. 4Q2023 should see a strong recovery and higher take rates. 

Bukalapak looks to be pressing all the right buttons but more granularity on what is driving higher take rates would be well-received . Valuations look attractive relative to peers.


Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - Taking the Track Towards Profitability

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Indonesia's election race is about to begin with the Presidential candidates announcing running mates on 26th October and with campaigns that could boost consumer demand. </li>
<li>The Indonesian economy should see GDP growth above 5% in 2023 and 2024, with inflation already under control at 2.28% in September. FDI remains positive although may slow before elections. </li>
<li>We explore the prospects for different sectors with a positive view on banks, retail, consumer staples, property, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> as a market proxy, with some opportunities in tech.</li>
</ul>


Indonesia's election race is about to begin with the Presidential candidates announcing running mates on 26th October and with campaigns that could boost consumer demand. 
The Indonesian economy should see GDP growth above 5% in 2023 and 2024, with inflation already under control at 2.28% in September. FDI remains positive although may slow before elections. 
We explore the prospects for different sectors with a positive view on banks, retail, consumer staples, property, and Astra International as a market proxy, with some opportunities in tech.


Indonesian Strategy - Election Race Hots Up Amidst Profits Recovery

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia</a> may see a stabilisation of the declines in GTV that it has experienced over the last 2Qs, with some of the platform's new initiatives gaining traction.</li>
<li>The closure of TikTok Shop should be positive at the margin for Tokopedia but it has also rolled back its platform fee, which has had a positive impact on growth.</li>
<li>New initiatives include GoRide Transit, GoCorp, GoTo PLUS, and the GoPay app, with the latter seeing strong take-up. 3Q2023 results should reveal more details on initiatives. All-time low seems unjustified.</li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia may see a stabilisation of the declines in GTV that it has experienced over the last 2Qs, with some of the platform's new initiatives gaining traction.
The closure of TikTok Shop should be positive at the margin for Tokopedia but it has also rolled back its platform fee, which has had a positive impact on growth.
New initiatives include GoRide Transit, GoCorp, GoTo PLUS, and the GoPay app, with the latter seeing strong take-up. 3Q2023 results should reveal more details on initiatives. All-time low seems unjustified.


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Building Positive Resonance with New Initiatives

<ul>
<li>The news that the Indonesian Government will target social commerce in Indonesia, as well as placing additional scrutiny on imported products sold through digital channels will impact TikTok hard.</li>
<li>TikTok Shop will not be allowed to operate in Indonesia in its present guise given the requirement to split social media and e-commerce, which will benefit peers Shopee and Tokopedia.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd</a> through Shopee will be the biggest beneficiary given it will require less promotional spending in Indonesia and it has also re-entered the Indian market with <em>FreeFire. </em>
</li>
</ul>


The news that the Indonesian Government will target social commerce in Indonesia, as well as placing additional scrutiny on imported products sold through digital channels will impact TikTok hard.
TikTok Shop will not be allowed to operate in Indonesia in its present guise given the requirement to split social media and e-commerce, which will benefit peers Shopee and Tokopedia.

Sea Ltd through Shopee will be the biggest beneficiary given it will require less promotional spending in Indonesia and it has also re-entered the Indian market with FreeFire. 



Indonesia

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk provides e-discretionary services. The Company offers range of electronics, food, shoes, apparel, watches, bags, cosmetics products, and other accessories. Bukalapak.com serves customers in Indonesia.

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Bukalapak.com PT Tbk (BUKA IJ)

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - New Initiatives Gaining Traction and Increasing Productivity

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia's 3Q2023 results were far more illuminating and encouraging than the last 2Qs, with more progress towards adjusted EBITDA...

Angus Mackintosh

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - Taking the Track Towards Profitability

Bukalapak's 3Q23 results confirmed that it is on track to achieving EBITDA breakeven in 4Q23, with higher take rates, strong revenue growth and a...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesian Strategy - Election Race Hots Up Amidst Profits Recovery

We explore the prospects across different sectors in Indonesia with a positive view on banks, retail, consumer staples, property, and Astra...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Building Positive Resonance with New Initiatives

GoTo's new initiatives include GoRide Transit, GoCorp, GoTo PLUS, and the GoPay app, the latter seeing strong take-up. 3Q2023 results should see...

Angus Mackintosh

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Glass Half Full Again?

Sea Ltd through Shopee will be the biggest beneficiary from TikTok Shop's demise in Indonesia as it will require less promotional spending, with...

Angus Mackintosh

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