ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> has seen a sharp share price rebound recently with speculation over a tie up with Temu, which appears ill-founded, with the only newsflow being a Director resigning.</li>
<li>The company swung back into a slight negative adjusted EBITDA in 2Q2024, mainly due to the seasonal impact of Lebaran on its O2O business and increased competition in virtual products.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak</a> remains a differentiated player in Indonesian e-commerce with a focus on serving MSMEs through its marketplace, with increasing take rates ahead. Dealing with excess cash is a potential catalyst. </li>
</ul>



Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) has seen a sharp share price rebound recently with speculation over a tie up with Temu, which appears ill-founded, with the only newsflow being a Director resigning.
The company swung back into a slight negative adjusted EBITDA in 2Q2024, mainly due to the seasonal impact of Lebaran on its O2O business and increased competition in virtual products.

Bukalapak remains a differentiated player in Indonesian e-commerce with a focus on serving MSMEs through its marketplace, with increasing take rates ahead. Dealing with excess cash is a potential catalyst. 


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 stocks added into portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 268% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 128%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 stocks added into portfolio
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 268% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 128%


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dian Swastatika Sentosa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended on 30 June. The changes should be announced later in two weeks, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>We highlight 2 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance, though there is a possibility that there are no constituent changes.</li>
<li>Both potential inclusions will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers and the flow is significant for one stock.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended on 30 June. The changes should be announced later in two weeks, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
We highlight 2 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance, though there is a possibility that there are no constituent changes.
Both potential inclusions will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers and the flow is significant for one stock.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Indonesia

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk provides e-discretionary services. The Company offers range of electronics, food, shoes, apparel, watches, bags, cosmetics products, and other accessories. Bukalapak.com serves customers in Indonesia.

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Bukalapak.com PT Tbk (BUKA IJ)

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - Changes Afoot?

Bukalapak remains a differentiated player in Indonesian e-commerce with a focus on serving MSMEs through its marketplace and increasing take rates...

Angus Mackintosh

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top...

Angus Mackintosh

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 50

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 stocks added.

A. Stotz Investment Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We highlight 2 sets of changes for the LQ45 in July. The forecast adds and deletes have traded in a range over the last few months. Historically,...

Brian Freitas

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