Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Circle Internet Group / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.</li>
<li>Speculative growth themes (quantum,nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar, biotech, WGMI,ARKK,ARKQ,ARKX,ARKW,ARKG, etc.) have been rolling, and we've been recommending them in this section every week for 1+ months.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.
Speculative growth themes (quantum,nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar, biotech, WGMI,ARKK,ARKQ,ARKX,ARKW,ARKG, etc.) have been rolling, and we've been recommending them in this section every week for 1+ months.


Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

StubHub Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The company priced a full-size offering of 34.04 million shares at $23.50, the midpoint of the $22–$25 range, raising more than $750 million.</li>
<li>Shares opened at $25.35, a 7.8% premium to the issue price, but that initial pop quickly evaporated. The stock closed its opening session at $22.00.</li>
<li>Over the next 30 days, we expect investors to remain cautious, with many likely trimming exposure until upcoming quarterly results offer greater clarity.</li>
</ul>


The company priced a full-size offering of 34.04 million shares at $23.50, the midpoint of the $22–$25 range, raising more than $750 million.
Shares opened at $25.35, a 7.8% premium to the issue price, but that initial pop quickly evaporated. The stock closed its opening session at $22.00.
Over the next 30 days, we expect investors to remain cautious, with many likely trimming exposure until upcoming quarterly results offer greater clarity.


StubHub Holdings (STUB): Strong Open, Quick Retreat as Debt and Flipping Pressure Loom

Gemini Space Station / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Gemini Space Station made a splashy debut on Friday, pricing 15.2 million shares at $28.00, above its upwardly-revised $24-$26 range (originally $17-$19). The stock opened at $37.01.</li>
<li>Gemini hit an intraday high of $45.89, but selling pressure quickly came in as investors took profits. The stock stabilized in the low $30s, closing at $32.00.</li>
<li>Retail investors played a central role in the offering, with 31% of shares allocated to individual investors—far above the typical 6–8% seen in traditional deals.</li>
</ul>


Gemini Space Station made a splashy debut on Friday, pricing 15.2 million shares at $28.00, above its upwardly-revised $24-$26 range (originally $17-$19). The stock opened at $37.01.
Gemini hit an intraday high of $45.89, but selling pressure quickly came in as investors took profits. The stock stabilized in the low $30s, closing at $32.00.
Retail investors played a central role in the offering, with 31% of shares allocated to individual investors—far above the typical 6–8% seen in traditional deals.


Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI): IPO Blasts Off With Retail Fuel, But Gravity Hits Late

<ul>
<li>The underwriters raised the price range from $17–$19 to $24–$26, one of the largest upward revisions in recent memory.</li>
<li>The underwriters re-filed a prospectus and added a $50 million concurrent private placement with Nasdaq on Tuesday morning.</li>
<li>From our years of experience in IPOs and short-term forecasting, one rule stands above the rest: deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


The underwriters raised the price range from $17–$19 to $24–$26, one of the largest upward revisions in recent memory.
The underwriters re-filed a prospectus and added a $50 million concurrent private placement with Nasdaq on Tuesday morning.
From our years of experience in IPOs and short-term forecasting, one rule stands above the rest: deal dynamics.


Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI): Range Increased, Next Crypto Moonshot Potentially On Deck

<ul>
<li>Commerce network Klarna Group will offer 34.3 million shares at $35-$37 and to debut on Wednesday (9/10).</li>
<li>The direct comp, Affirm, posted a strong quarter but some of Klarna's metrics are on par or potentially stronger than its competitor. </li>
<li>The valuation, both relative to peers and compared with prior “bloated” rounds, looks far more reasonable this time.</li>
</ul>


Commerce network Klarna Group will offer 34.3 million shares at $35-$37 and to debut on Wednesday (9/10).
The direct comp, Affirm, posted a strong quarter but some of Klarna's metrics are on par or potentially stronger than its competitor. 
The valuation, both relative to peers and compared with prior “bloated” rounds, looks far more reasonable this time.


Klarna Group (KLAR): Discounted Down-Round Valuation Draws Interest, Multiple-Times Oversubscribed

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Bullish US (BLSH US)

Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

Downgrading Financials $XLF to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore: quantum, nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar,...

Vermilion Research

StubHub Holdings (STUB): Strong Open, Quick Retreat as Debt and Flipping Pressure Loom

Company raises over $750 million in IPO, but stock price quickly drops after initial pop, leaving investors cautious for next 30 days.

IPO Boutique

Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI): IPO Blasts Off With Retail Fuel, But Gravity Hits Late

Gemini Space Station debuts with a strong IPO, pricing shares above range and attracting retail investors, closing at $32.00 after hitting highs...

IPO Boutique

Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI): Range Increased, Next Crypto Moonshot Potentially On Deck

Underwriters significantly increase price range for IPO, emphasizing importance of deal dynamics in short-term forecasting.

IPO Boutique

Klarna Group (KLAR): Discounted Down-Round Valuation Draws Interest, Multiple-Times Oversubscribed

Backed by major venture capital investors a steep discount at IPO may attract both new buyers and existing holders for Klarna Group's IPO.

IPO Boutique

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

Downgrading Financials $XLF to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore: quantum, nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar,...

Vermilion Research

StubHub Holdings (STUB): Strong Open, Quick Retreat as Debt and Flipping Pressure Loom

​Company raises over $750 million in IPO, but stock price quickly drops after initial pop, leaving investors cautious for next 30 days.

IPO Boutique

Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI): IPO Blasts Off With Retail Fuel, But Gravity Hits Late

​Gemini Space Station debuts with a strong IPO, pricing shares above range and attracting retail investors, closing at $32.00 after hitting highs...

IPO Boutique

Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI): Range Increased, Next Crypto Moonshot Potentially On Deck

​Underwriters significantly increase price range for IPO, emphasizing importance of deal dynamics in short-term forecasting.

IPO Boutique

Klarna Group (KLAR): Discounted Down-Round Valuation Draws Interest, Multiple-Times Oversubscribed

Backed by major venture capital investors a steep discount at IPO may attract both new buyers and existing holders for Klarna Group's IPO.

IPO Boutique

Company raises over $750 million in IPO, but stock price quickly drops after initial pop, leaving investors cautious for next 30 days.

Gemini Space Station debuts with a strong IPO, pricing shares above range and attracting retail investors, closing at $32.00 after hitting highs...

Underwriters significantly increase price range for IPO, emphasizing importance of deal dynamics in short-term forecasting.