Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.</li>
<li>Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.</li>
<li>Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.</li>
</ul>


Precious and energy-transition metals lead as structural scarcity, central-bank demand, and electrification support gold, silver, copper, aluminium, zinc, and rare earths into 2026.
Bulks and hydrocarbons lag with weak China demand, oversupply, and compressed margins across iron ore, nickel, steel, coal, and crude, keeping the segment firmly underweight.
Top Asia exposures include Zijin, Korea Zinc, Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, CMOC, JXAM, SMM, Mitsui, Jiangxi Copper, NALCO, Hongqiao, Hindalco, Shenghe, and CNRE.


Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Equity Bottom-Up

Merdeka Gold Resources / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Largest IPO 2025: EMAS IJ raised ~USD 281m, 4.6× oversubscribed, spun off from MDKA to fund Sulawesi’s Pani Gold Project.</li>
<li>Asset Scale: Pani holds 1.9 Moz reserves, 7 Moz resources; production to ramp from 145 koz (2026) to ~500 koz (2032).</li>
<li>Valuation &amp; Risks: IPO EV ~USD 3.2 bn; ~8–9× EV/EBITDA during 2026–29 heap leach, falling to ~2–3× at 2032 steady-state; execution, funding risks remain.</li>
</ul>


Largest IPO 2025: EMAS IJ raised ~USD 281m, 4.6× oversubscribed, spun off from MDKA to fund Sulawesi’s Pani Gold Project.
Asset Scale: Pani holds 1.9 Moz reserves, 7 Moz resources; production to ramp from 145 koz (2026) to ~500 koz (2032).
Valuation &amp; Risks: IPO EV ~USD 3.2 bn; ~8–9× EV/EBITDA during 2026–29 heap leach, falling to ~2–3× at 2032 steady-state; execution, funding risks remain.


Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

<ul>
<li>Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.</li>
<li>Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).</li>
<li>Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.</li>
</ul>


Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.
Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).
Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.


Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

<ul>
<li>US$418m of passive inflows set to enter Indonesia as Amman (AMMN) and Bumi (BRMS) join MVGDX.</li>
<li>Amman’s inclusion may prove temporary as copper smelter mandates tilt revenues away from gold.</li>
<li>Archi (ARCI) emerges as a future candidate, while Merdeka (MDKA) fails the gold dependency test.</li>
</ul>


US$418m of passive inflows set to enter Indonesia as Amman (AMMN) and Bumi (BRMS) join MVGDX.
Amman’s inclusion may prove temporary as copper smelter mandates tilt revenues away from gold.
Archi (ARCI) emerges as a future candidate, while Merdeka (MDKA) fails the gold dependency test.


Indonesia Joins MVGDX: US$418m Passive Flows, but Amman’s Inclusion Looks Fragile

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

Indonesia

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk PT is an exploration and exploitation mining company.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ)

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

EMAS IJ's successful IPO raised $281m to fund Sulawesi's Pani Gold Project, with production expected to ramp up to 500 koz by 2032. Valuation at...

Rahul Jain

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Indonesia Joins MVGDX: US$418m Passive Flows, but Amman’s Inclusion Looks Fragile

Indonesia set to receive US$418m in passive inflows as Amman and Bumi join MVGDX, with Archi emerging as a future candidate for inclusion.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asia Metals Outlook 2026: Scarcity Favours Gold, Copper, Aluminium

​Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

Rahul Jain

Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ): Indonesia’s Largest IPO of 2025

​EMAS IJ's successful IPO raised $281m to fund Sulawesi's Pani Gold Project, with production expected to ramp up to 500 koz by 2032. Valuation at...

Rahul Jain

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

​Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Indonesia Joins MVGDX: US$418m Passive Flows, but Amman’s Inclusion Looks Fragile

​Indonesia set to receive US$418m in passive inflows as Amman and Bumi join MVGDX, with Archi emerging as a future candidate for inclusion.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

Precious and energy-transition metals set to outperform bulks and hydrocarbons through 2026, with top Asia exposures including Zijin, Korea Zinc,...

EMAS IJ's successful IPO raised $281m to fund Sulawesi's Pani Gold Project, with production expected to ramp up to 500 koz by 2032. Valuation at...

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Indonesia set to receive US$418m in passive inflows as Amman and Bumi join MVGDX, with Archi emerging as a future candidate for inclusion.