Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.</li>
<li>With float below 10%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> should miss inclusion in the index in December, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dundee-precious-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42245:1" rel="noopener">Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)</a> is a potential inclusion.</li>
<li>There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Northern Star Resources / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> is looking to raise around US$725m in a secondary placement.</li>
<li>The proceeds will be used to pay down Gold Fields.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Northern Star Resources (NST AU) is looking to raise around US$725m in a secondary placement.
The proceeds will be used to pay down Gold Fields.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Northern Star Placement: Secondary Sell Down by Gold Fields; Tight Discount

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Northern Star Resources / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Northern Star Resources Ltd's March 2025 quarterly results showcased a strong financial and operational performance, despite facing some operational challenges.</li><li>The company generated robust net mine cash flow of $295 million, with positive contributions from all production centers.</li><li>The gold price, exceeding AUD 5,000 per ounce, aided this financial strength, alongside the company's low-risk mining jurisdictions in Western Australia and Alaska.</li></ul>

Northern Star Resources Ltd's March 2025 quarterly results showcased a strong financial and operational performance, despite facing some operational challenges.The company generated robust net mine cash flow of $295 million, with positive contributions from all production centers.The gold price, exceeding AUD 5,000 per ounce, aided this financial strength, alongside the company's low-risk mining jurisdictions in Western Australia and Alaska.

Northern Star Resources: Initiation of Coverage- Why Mining Stabilization at Super Pit Could Be a Game-Changer!

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> shareholders approving the acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>, we move to the phase of passive index flows. </li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/generation-development-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14945:1" rel="noopener">Generation Development Group (GDG AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 23 April to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>There will be passive inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.</li>
</ul>


With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows. 
As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU). 
There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.


De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

Australia

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

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Northern Star Resources (NST AU)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

DPM Metals is a potential add, Zijin Gold is a likely miss in Dec. There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a...

Brian Freitas

Northern Star Placement: Secondary Sell Down by Gold Fields; Tight Discount

Northern Star Resources is looking to raise around US$725m in a secondary placement. In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the...

Nicholas Tan

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

Northern Star Resources: Initiation of Coverage- Why Mining Stabilization at Super Pit Could Be a Game-Changer!

Northern Star Resources Ltd's March 2025 quarterly results showcased a strong financial and operational performance, despite facing some...

Baptista Research

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

There will be passive buying in Northern Star Resources (NST) today at the close following the acquisition of De Grey Mining. The stock is up a lot...

Brian Freitas

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