Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).</li>
<li>The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.</li>
<li>If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership</li>
</ul>


Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).
The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.
If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership


Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In its recent earnings, Burlington Stores reported revenues and earnings growth for the first quarter of 2024.</li><li>Total sales grew by 11% compared to the same quarter in the previous year, driven by new store openings and comparable store sales growth.</li><li>The company opened 14 new stores during the quarter, expanding the total count to 1,021 stores.</li></ul>

In its recent earnings, Burlington Stores reported revenues and earnings growth for the first quarter of 2024.Total sales grew by 11% compared to the same quarter in the previous year, driven by new store openings and comparable store sales growth.The company opened 14 new stores during the quarter, expanding the total count to 1,021 stores.

Burlington Stores Inc.: Growing Brand Mix & Elevated Assortments Catalyzing Growth!  - Major Drivers

<ul><li>In the fourth quarter of 2023, Burlington Stores reported their total sales growth to be 9% which exceeded their initial guidance projections of 5% to 7%.</li><li>This was a result of better than expected comparative store sales, which increased by 2% against a guidance of "-2% to flat." Contributing to this growth was the strong response of lower income customers, often referred to as "need a deal shoppers", who favoured Burlington's opening price points.</li><li>Furthermore, the company managed to tap into a slightly higher income consumer base, the trade-down shoppers, who showed positive responses to the recognizable brands offered in Burlington's merchandise mix.</li></ul>

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Burlington Stores reported their total sales growth to be 9% which exceeded their initial guidance projections of 5% to 7%.This was a result of better than expected comparative store sales, which increased by 2% against a guidance of "-2% to flat." Contributing to this growth was the strong response of lower income customers, often referred to as "need a deal shoppers", who favoured Burlington's opening price points.Furthermore, the company managed to tap into a slightly higher income consumer base, the trade-down shoppers, who showed positive responses to the recognizable brands offered in Burlington's merchandise mix.

Burlington Stores: Improved Execution Of The Off-Price Model Providing A Competitive Edge? - Key Drivers

<ul><li>Burlington Stores and its management reported a 6% increase in comparable store sales, aligning with the midpoint of their projected range of 5% to 7%.</li><li>Despite a slight outperformance through September, unseasonably warm weather in October impacted the growth trajectory, particularly affecting outerwear sales, an area of strength for Burlington.</li><li>Despite anticipating some variability, the company aims for mid-single-digit annual comparable store sales growth over the next five years, building on strategies implemented since 2019 to enhance its off-price model.</li></ul>

Burlington Stores and its management reported a 6% increase in comparable store sales, aligning with the midpoint of their projected range of 5% to 7%.Despite a slight outperformance through September, unseasonably warm weather in October impacted the growth trajectory, particularly affecting outerwear sales, an area of strength for Burlington.Despite anticipating some variability, the company aims for mid-single-digit annual comparable store sales growth over the next five years, building on strategies implemented since 2019 to enhance its off-price model.

Burlington Stores Inc.: Reinventing the Off-Price Retail Model! - Major Drivers

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.</li>
<li>New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond</li>
<li>Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)</li>
</ul>


Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.
New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond
Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

United States

Burlington Stores, Inc. owns and operates clothing retail stores. The Company offers, through its stores and internet sites, men's, women's, and children's apparel. Burlington Holding operates within the United States and Puerto Rico.

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Burlington Stores (BURL US)

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Bullish Outlook Intact; Expecting Short-term Support at $SPX 5370-5380 and $QQQ $468-469 (20-day MAs...

Vermilion Research

Burlington Stores Inc.: Growing Brand Mix & Elevated Assortments Catalyzing Growth! - Major Drivers

In its recent earnings, Burlington Stores reported revenues and earnings growth for the first quarter of 2024. Total sales grew by 11% compared to...

Baptista Research

Burlington Stores: Improved Execution Of The Off-Price Model Providing A Competitive Edge? - Key Drivers

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Burlington Stores reported their total sales growth to be 9% which exceeded their initial guidance projections of...

Baptista Research

Burlington Stores Inc.: Reinventing the Off-Price Retail Model! - Major Drivers

Burlington Stores and its management reported a 6% increase in comparable store sales, aligning with the midpoint of their projected range of 5%...

Baptista Research

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

New market-generated information continues to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. We still expect...

Vermilion Research

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