HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Liuliu Orchard Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Liuliumei is shifting resources to the Prune-based/plum jelly categories, but gross margins declined. The shrinking of dried plum snacks hasn’t been effectively replaced by emerging categories, presenting a structural risk</li>
<li>The sudden dividend is widely interpreted by the market as a benefit cash-out arrangement for existing shareholders and key stakeholders before the listing, causing serious damage to Liuliumei's governance image</li>
<li>A neutral scenario is 16-20x P/E, reflecting the market’s recognition of Liuliumei’s leading position in the segment, and certain premium has been given for the potential of new growth point.</li>
</ul>


Liuliumei is shifting resources to the Prune-based/plum jelly categories, but gross margins declined. The shrinking of dried plum snacks hasn’t been effectively replaced by emerging categories, presenting a structural risk
The sudden dividend is widely interpreted by the market as a benefit cash-out arrangement for existing shareholders and key stakeholders before the listing, causing serious damage to Liuliumei's governance image
A neutral scenario is 16-20x P/E, reflecting the market’s recognition of Liuliumei’s leading position in the segment, and certain premium has been given for the potential of new growth point.


Pre-IPO Liuliumei Co., Ltd. (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the Hang Seng family of indices were announced post market close on Friday - final capping will use closing prices from 2 June.</li>
<li>There are 3 adds for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, 2 changes each for the<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener"> HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, 1 change for the HSBIO Index and 7 adds for the HSCI Index.</li>
<li>There will be positioning in most stocks but there could be continued positioning in the names that will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Hang Seng family of indices were announced post market close on Friday - final capping will use closing prices from 2 June.
There are 3 adds for the HSI, 2 changes each for the HSCEI and HSTECH, 1 change for the HSBIO Index and 7 adds for the HSCI Index.
There will be positioning in most stocks but there could be continued positioning in the names that will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.


Hang Seng Indexes: Changes Lead to US$6.6bn Trade; Plus Stock Connect & Global Index Inclusions

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng announced six immediate Connect ADDs and zero DELETEs, effective 8 Jun 2026. Three delayed ADDs remain outside this study pending stock splits.</li>
<li>Our 4 May forecast called five of six ADDs correctly.</li>
<li>Pre-Announcement cohort return matched history, but stock dispersion was far wider than prior cycles. Opening-gap size should drive bridge-window entry.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng announced six immediate Connect ADDs and zero DELETEs, effective 8 Jun 2026. Three delayed ADDs remain outside this study pending stock splits.
Our 4 May forecast called five of six ADDs correctly.
Pre-Announcement cohort return matched history, but stock dispersion was far wider than prior cycles. Opening-gap size should drive bridge-window entry.


HSCI / HK Connect June 2026 Implementation: Post-Announcement Positioning

<ul>
<li>We screen the HSCI eligible universe for Q1 fast-entry candidates ahead of the May 2026 review.</li>
<li>Five stocks qualify as ADD candidates for HSCI inclusion this cycle. Fast entry rules apply.</li>
<li>The sixth name is mid-conviction, contingent on the committee's read of its specialist listing status.</li>
</ul>


We screen the HSCI eligible universe for Q1 fast-entry candidates ahead of the May 2026 review.
Five stocks qualify as ADD candidates for HSCI inclusion this cycle. Fast entry rules apply.
The sixth name is mid-conviction, contingent on the committee's read of its specialist listing status.


HSCI / HK Connect May 2026 Review Forecast

<ul>
<li>There were 39 new listings on the Main Board of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> in the first quarter of the calendar year. </li>
<li>Of the 39 new listings, we forecast 7 inclusions to the HSCI Index in June. 6 of those stocks will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect from 8 June.</li>
<li>Over US$15.5bn of cornerstone and pre-IPO shares will unlock in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax Group (100 HK)</a> on 9 July. The stock will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect in August.</li>
</ul>


There were 39 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in the first quarter of the calendar year. 
Of the 39 new listings, we forecast 7 inclusions to the HSCI Index in June. 6 of those stocks will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect from 8 June.
Over US$15.5bn of cornerstone and pre-IPO shares will unlock in MiniMax Group (100 HK) on 9 July. The stock will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect in August.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & Index Buying Vs Lock-Up Expiry Selling

China

Busy Ming is a Chinese snack and beverage retailer that operates a vast network of stores across China. The company offers a wide range of snacks and beverages, including bakery, confectionery, biscuits, nuts, puffed snacks, instant meals, chocolates, and preserves. It operates under the "Busy for You" and "Super Ming" brands through self-operated and franchised stores, focusing on a value retail model. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Changsha, China.

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Busy Ming (1768 HK)

Pre-IPO Liuliumei Co., Ltd. (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Liuliumei shift focus to new categories but face declining margin. Dividend seen as cash-out before IPO damages governance image.16-20x PE is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hang Seng Indexes: Changes Lead to US$6.6bn Trade; Plus Stock Connect & Global Index Inclusions

There are a number of constituent, float and capping changes for the Hang Seng family, leading to a US$6.6bn trade. Stock Connect additions, lock...

Brian Freitas

HSCI / HK Connect June 2026 Implementation: Post-Announcement Positioning

HSCI / HK Connect June cycle is post-announcement. Six ADDs enter the bridge window with no DELETEs. Opening-gap discipline matters, alongside...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI / HK Connect May 2026 Review Forecast

HSCI May 2026 rebalance announcement due after market close today: a good time to revisit our review forecast as the decision approaches.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & Index Buying Vs Lock-Up Expiry Selling

Announcement after market close tomorrow. There could be last-minute positioning next 2 weeks ahead of inclusion of the stocks in Stock Connect....

Brian Freitas

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Pre-IPO Liuliumei Co., Ltd. (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Liuliumei shift focus to new categories but face declining margin. Dividend seen as cash-out before IPO damages governance image.16-20x PE is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hang Seng Indexes: Changes Lead to US$6.6bn Trade; Plus Stock Connect & Global Index Inclusions

There are a number of constituent, float and capping changes for the Hang Seng family, leading to a US$6.6bn trade. Stock Connect additions, lock...

Brian Freitas

HSCI / HK Connect June 2026 Implementation: Post-Announcement Positioning

HSCI / HK Connect June cycle is post-announcement. Six ADDs enter the bridge window with no DELETEs. Opening-gap discipline matters, alongside...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI / HK Connect May 2026 Review Forecast

HSCI May 2026 rebalance announcement due after market close today: a good time to revisit our review forecast as the decision approaches.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & Index Buying Vs Lock-Up Expiry Selling

Announcement after market close tomorrow. There could be last-minute positioning next 2 weeks ahead of inclusion of the stocks in Stock Connect....

Brian Freitas

Liuliumei shift focus to new categories but face declining margin. Dividend seen as cash-out before IPO damages governance image.16-20x PE is...