Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong markets continue to outperform this year with the HSCEI up 30% year to date.  Market breadth continues to be healthy with 80% of stocks over &gt; 200 DMA.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> announced its new hybrid technology which gives vehicles a range of more than 870 miles (1400 Kms).  The company has delivered more than 120k vehicles YTD.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)</a> benefits from increased market turnover.   <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> beat consensus for 3Q24 earnings and will continue its buyback program.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong markets continue to outperform this year with the HSCEI up 30% year to date.  Market breadth continues to be healthy with 80% of stocks over &gt; 200 DMA.

XPeng (9868 HK) announced its new hybrid technology which gives vehicles a range of more than 870 miles (1400 Kms).  The company has delivered more than 120k vehicles YTD.

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK) benefits from increased market turnover.   Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) beat consensus for 3Q24 earnings and will continue its buyback program.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 7)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While Trump's sweeping wins in presidential, senate and house, and supreme court earlier gave him unprecedented mandate to reform the US economy, his agenda is unrealistic to begin with; </li>
<li>ADS/Electrification, GAI/renewable/employment, (3) inflation/trade/ immigration are just three that the Trump Administration will likely backpedal.  Execution of Trump's economic agenda requires perfect coordination which is tough to pull off</li>
<li>For a short term trade, we recommend PDD and BYD. We also like Xiaomi. Consumption stocks can benefit from stimulus package from the Chinese government.</li>
</ul>


While Trump's sweeping wins in presidential, senate and house, and supreme court earlier gave him unprecedented mandate to reform the US economy, his agenda is unrealistic to begin with; 
ADS/Electrification, GAI/renewable/employment, (3) inflation/trade/ immigration are just three that the Trump Administration will likely backpedal.  Execution of Trump's economic agenda requires perfect coordination which is tough to pull off
For a short term trade, we recommend PDD and BYD. We also like Xiaomi. Consumption stocks can benefit from stimulus package from the Chinese government.


What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

<ul>
<li>300750 CH/601012 CH/2208 HK/300274 CH:The growth rate of photovoltaic new installed capacity continued to slow down in the third quarter but rebounded in September.(///////)</li>
<li>300750 CH: CATL's all-solid-state battery enters prototype verification phase, faster than expected.(/)</li>
<li>NIO US/ LI US/1211 HK: NIO is rumoured to launch hybrid vehicles overseas in 2026 and sell them in the Middle East, North Africa and Europe.(/////)</li>
</ul>


300750 CH/601012 CH/2208 HK/300274 CH:The growth rate of photovoltaic new installed capacity continued to slow down in the third quarter but rebounded in September.(///////)
300750 CH: CATL's all-solid-state battery enters prototype verification phase, faster than expected.(/)
NIO US/ LI US/1211 HK: NIO is rumoured to launch hybrid vehicles overseas in 2026 and sell them in the Middle East, North Africa and Europe.(/////)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 CH/601012 CH/2208 HK/300274 CH/NIO US/ LI US/1211 HK

<ul>
<li>BYD reported C3Q24 top line, non-IFRS operating income and IFRS net income 2.7%, (28%) and (12%) vs. our estimates. </li>
<li>Our ASP tracker showed promotional activities abated industry wide in October, boding well for profitability in C4Q24. </li>
<li>We maintain the stock at BUY and TP of HK$372.</li>
</ul>


BYD reported C3Q24 top line, non-IFRS operating income and IFRS net income 2.7%, (28%) and (12%) vs. our estimates. 
Our ASP tracker showed promotional activities abated industry wide in October, boding well for profitability in C4Q24. 
We maintain the stock at BUY and TP of HK$372.


[BYD Company (1211 HK, BUY, TP HK$372) Review]: Great Earnings Linearity Stays the Same This Quarter

<ul>
<li>1211 HK/XPEV US:Shanghai Further Offers Car Trade-in Subsidies . (+)</li>
<li>ATAT US: China hotel industry remains lukewarm in 3Q24 (-)</li>
<li>ATAT US:Hotel bookings in Shanghai during the CIIE increase by 80% year-on-year (+)</li>
</ul>


1211 HK/XPEV US:Shanghai Further Offers Car Trade-in Subsidies . (+)
ATAT US: China hotel industry remains lukewarm in 3Q24 (-)
ATAT US:Hotel bookings in Shanghai during the CIIE increase by 80% year-on-year (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/XPEV US/ATAT US/ZTO US/BABA US/Real Estate News Update/Consumer Sector

China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

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BYD (002594 CH)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 7)

Hong Kong markets are among the top performers this year. Short selling has declined as Southbound buying increases. Xpeng introduced a new hybrid...

David Mudd

What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 CH/601012 CH/2208 HK/300274 CH/NIO US/ LI US/1211 HK

Photovoltaic new installed capacity growth slows in Q3 but rebounds in September; CATL's all-solid-state battery advances quickly; NIO rumored to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[BYD Company (1211 HK, BUY, TP HK$372) Review]: Great Earnings Linearity Stays the Same This Quarter

BYD's recent financial results fell short of estimates, but decreased promotional activities in October suggest improved profitability in the next...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/XPEV US/ATAT US/ZTO US/BABA US/Real Estate News Update/Consumer Sector

Shanghai offers car trade-in subsidies, China hotel industry lukewarm in 3Q24, but hotel bookings in Shanghai during CIIE surge by 80% year-on-year.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 7)

Hong Kong markets are among the top performers this year. Short selling has declined as Southbound buying increases. Xpeng introduced a new hybrid...

David Mudd

What Trump Can and Cannot Accomplish in His 2nd Term

​Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 CH/601012 CH/2208 HK/300274 CH/NIO US/ LI US/1211 HK

​Photovoltaic new installed capacity growth slows in Q3 but rebounds in September; CATL's all-solid-state battery advances quickly; NIO rumored to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[BYD Company (1211 HK, BUY, TP HK$372) Review]: Great Earnings Linearity Stays the Same This Quarter

​BYD's recent financial results fell short of estimates, but decreased promotional activities in October suggest improved profitability in the next...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/XPEV US/ATAT US/ZTO US/BABA US/Real Estate News Update/Consumer Sector

​Shanghai offers car trade-in subsidies, China hotel industry lukewarm in 3Q24, but hotel bookings in Shanghai during CIIE surge by 80% year-on-year.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trump's ambitious economic agenda faces challenges and backpedaling. We see energy electrification, GAI power demand and inflation/immigration...

Photovoltaic new installed capacity growth slows in Q3 but rebounds in September; CATL's all-solid-state battery advances quickly; NIO rumored to...

BYD's recent financial results fell short of estimates, but decreased promotional activities in October suggest improved profitability in the next...

Shanghai offers car trade-in subsidies, China hotel industry lukewarm in 3Q24, but hotel bookings in Shanghai during CIIE surge by 80% year-on-year.