Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Our quantitative models last week indicated <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-company-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD Company (1211 HK)</a> had <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/weekly-tactical-recap-asymmetric-setup-catl-advantest-corp-tokyo-electron-zijin-mining-nifty" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reached oversold territory</a>. The stock could rally back towards 90 from here, and possibly change long-term trend.</li>
<li>Valuation multiples have de-rated significantly, pricing in worst-case domestic price-war scenarios while underappreciating higher-margin overseas export growth and AI-driven smart driving adoption.</li>
<li>A tactical LONG position from current price levels, targeting a mean-reversion move toward 90-100 (near our model + consensus target) could offer more reward potential than downside risk (good asymmetry).</li>
</ul>


Our quantitative models last week indicated BYD Company (1211 HK) had reached oversold territory. The stock could rally back towards 90 from here, and possibly change long-term trend.
Valuation multiples have de-rated significantly, pricing in worst-case domestic price-war scenarios while underappreciating higher-margin overseas export growth and AI-driven smart driving adoption.
A tactical LONG position from current price levels, targeting a mean-reversion move toward 90-100 (near our model + consensus target) could offer more reward potential than downside risk (good asymmetry).


Let's Make a Case for a BYD (1211 HK) Rally (Tactical View)

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Overseas revenue is 60-100% more profitable, and interestingly, it has reached more than 50% of BYD's total revenue for the first time. </li>
<li>The recent recall is not significant enough to dent the group's overall business. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-company-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD Company (1211 HK)</a> has one of the highest overseas sales contributions compared to the peers. </li>
<li>The lower valuation, combined with a stronger operation including higher overall margin thanks to the growing overseas business, presents an opportunity to own BYD. </li>
</ul>


Overseas revenue is 60-100% more profitable, and interestingly, it has reached more than 50% of BYD's total revenue for the first time. 
The recent recall is not significant enough to dent the group's overall business. BYD Company (1211 HK) has one of the highest overseas sales contributions compared to the peers. 
The lower valuation, combined with a stronger operation including higher overall margin thanks to the growing overseas business, presents an opportunity to own BYD. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We spent the past week meeting ECM focused clients in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Overall, IPO flow doesn’t appear to be showing any signs of slowing down with multiple investor teams being in expansion mode.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about some of the feedback for the upcoming IPOs and placements.</li>
</ul>


We spent the past week meeting ECM focused clients in Hong Kong.
Overall, IPO flow doesn’t appear to be showing any signs of slowing down with multiple investor teams being in expansion mode.
In this note, we talk about some of the feedback for the upcoming IPOs and placements.


Aequitas: ECM Asia Takeaways from Hong Kong Investor Meetings- Innolight, Shein, A/H Listings, Gcash

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus., Carbon Tracker Initiative

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus.

Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker - part of the Tracker Group - are award-winning, non-profit financial think tanks focused on the climate–nature nexus.

<ul><li>This report uses outputs from the University of Exeter’s Future Technology Transformations model, calibrated with Carbon Tracker’s proprietary market, asset and cost data, to assess how heavy-duty vehicle markets could evolve as battery-electric trucks approach TCO parity.</li><li> The analysis focuses on two questions: when the commercial economics are likely to trigger faster adoption, and which manufacturers are best positioned for that transition.</li><li> The analysis indicates that electric truck sales can accelerate rapidly along a non-linear S-curve, creating transition risks for manufacturers with large exposures to internal combustion technology and opportunities for companies better positioned for an increasingly electric market.</li></ul>

This report uses outputs from the University of Exeter’s Future Technology Transformations model, calibrated with Carbon Tracker’s proprietary market, asset and cost data, to assess how heavy-duty vehicle markets could evolve as battery-electric trucks approach TCO parity. The analysis focuses on two questions: when the commercial economics are likely to trigger faster adoption, and which manufacturers are best positioned for that transition. The analysis indicates that electric truck sales can accelerate rapidly along a non-linear S-curve, creating transition risks for manufacturers with large exposures to internal combustion technology and opportunities for companies better positioned for an increasingly electric market.

BYD Company Limited Class H - Trucking’s Tipping Point

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>The deliveries still grew strongly by 24% YoY in November 2025.</li>
<li>We believe Geely will take BYD’s place as the largest Chinese producer.</li>
<li>We also believe the stock has an upside of 49% for the next twelve months.</li>
</ul>


The deliveries still grew strongly by 24% YoY in November 2025.
We believe Geely will take BYD’s place as the largest Chinese producer.
We also believe the stock has an upside of 49% for the next twelve months.


2026 High Conviction: Geely (175 HK) To Be the Largest

China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

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BYD (002594 CH)

Let's Make a Case for a BYD (1211 HK) Rally (Tactical View)

Tactical LONG setup for BYD (1211 HK): our model sees rally potential over the next 3 weeks. Downside risk bounded at clearly defined supports...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211): Mid-Term Value Opportunity

The recent recall is manageable, while overseas business keeps on growing with a much higher operating margin as well. The weaker share price...

Henry Soediarko

Aequitas: ECM Asia Takeaways from Hong Kong Investor Meetings- Innolight, Shein, A/H Listings, Gcash

We spent the past week meeting ECM focused clients in Hong Kong. This note contains some of the key takeaways from the upcoming listings.

Sumeet Singh

BYD Company Limited Class H - Trucking’s Tipping Point

This report uses outputs from the University of Exeter’s Future Technology Transformations model, calibrated with Carbon Tracker’s proprietary...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

2026 High Conviction: Geely (175 HK) To Be the Largest

The deliveries grew strongly by 24% YoY in Nov. 2025. We believe Geely will take BYD’s place as the largest Chinese producer. We believe the stock...

Ming Lu

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