External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The CAD has outperformed most of its major currency peers this week but that is reflecting its tendency to trade more or less in line with the broader USD tone at the moment.</li>
<li>USDCAD is little changed on the week overall, with the CAD pacing USD gains on the major crosses.</li>
<li>The data run in Canada this week reflected softer than expected June CPI and May Retail Sales activity; early estimates for June Retail Sales were flat. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


The CAD has outperformed most of its major currency peers this week but that is reflecting its tendency to trade more or less in line with the broader USD tone at the moment.
USDCAD is little changed on the week overall, with the CAD pacing USD gains on the major crosses.
The data run in Canada this week reflected softer than expected June CPI and May Retail Sales activity; early estimates for June Retail Sales were flat. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Slips into Range versus USD

<ul>
<li>CFTC data for the week through July 18th reflect a significant deterioration in USD sentiment.</li>
<li>Speculative Accounts’ overall positioning against the USD versus the major currencies reflected an aggregate short position of USD 19.9bn in the latest week.</li>
<li>The week-over-week increase in aggregate USD shorts of USD7.4bn was the largest single week positioning shift against the USD since 2020. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


CFTC data for the week through July 18th reflect a significant deterioration in USD sentiment.
Speculative Accounts’ overall positioning against the USD versus the major currencies reflected an aggregate short position of USD 19.9bn in the latest week.
The week-over-week increase in aggregate USD shorts of USD7.4bn was the largest single week positioning shift against the USD since 2020. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global FX Strategy - USD Sentiment Deteriorates Sharply

<ul><li>USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.</li><li>There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.</li><li>There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>The CAD got the lift I was looking for from this week’s events.</li>
<li>US CPI came in lower than expected and the Bank of Canada raised interest rates 25bps.</li>
<li>The broader import of the slide in US CPI is a clearer shift in the narrative surrounding the USD—the fact that the peak in the Fed tightening cycle is now very close, perhaps just a couple of weeks away. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


The CAD got the lift I was looking for from this week’s events.
US CPI came in lower than expected and the Bank of Canada raised interest rates 25bps.
The broader import of the slide in US CPI is a clearer shift in the narrative surrounding the USD—the fact that the peak in the Fed tightening cycle is now very close, perhaps just a couple of weeks away. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook – CAD’s Grind Higher Should Extend

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn) and Speculative Accounts retain a net short USD position on aggregate of USD12.5bn.</li><li>This is little changed over the past three weeks, perhaps reflecting light, summer trading. Real Money Accounts retain a sizeable aggregate USD short position (USD38bn, up a little under USD2bn on the week) while Leveraged Accounts reversed a small, aggregate USD short position to a minor net long (USD5bn).</li><li>These hedge fund traders have tended to hold a similarly sized net USD long on aggregate since March.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn) and Speculative Accounts retain a net short USD position on aggregate of USD12.5bn.This is little changed over the past three weeks, perhaps reflecting light, summer trading. Real Money Accounts retain a sizeable aggregate USD short position (USD38bn, up a little under USD2bn on the week) while Leveraged Accounts reversed a small, aggregate USD short position to a minor net long (USD5bn).These hedge fund traders have tended to hold a similarly sized net USD long on aggregate since March.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Sentiment Improves Slightly

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Slips into Range versus USD

The CAD has outperformed most of its major currency peers this week but that is reflecting its tendency to trade more or less in line with the...

Scotiabank

Global FX Strategy - USD Sentiment Deteriorates Sharply

Speculative Accounts’ overall positioning against the USD versus the major currencies reflected an aggregate short position of USD 19.9bn in the...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - GBP Tumbles on Lower UK CPI

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly Outlook – CAD’s Grind Higher Should Extend

The CAD got the lift I was looking for from this week’s events. US CPI came in lower than expected and the Bank of Canada raised interest rates 25bps.

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Sentiment Improves Slightly

CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn)

Scotiabank

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