Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Various prior leadership areas from the April lows appear ready to continue higher following 1+ month consolidations. IGV, PLTR, APP, SOUN, RZLV, SHOP, FROG, U, CDNS, RDDT, JMIA, RR, Z,HIMS,MU,GRAL</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Short-Term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.
Various prior leadership areas from the April lows appear ready to continue higher following 1+ month consolidations. IGV, PLTR, APP, SOUN, RZLV, SHOP, FROG, U, CDNS, RDDT, JMIA, RR, Z,HIMS,MU,GRAL


Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Political scrutiny and perception issues form a tense backdrop ahead of Tan’s Oval Office meeting.</li>
<li>Strategic rifts over investment pace, 14A development, and fab build-outs are at the heart of the discussion.</li>
<li>The meeting’s outcome may hinge on whether Tan can align Intel’s roadmap with Trump’s manufacturing agenda.</li>
</ul>


Political scrutiny and perception issues form a tense backdrop ahead of Tan’s Oval Office meeting.
Strategic rifts over investment pace, 14A development, and fab build-outs are at the heart of the discussion.
The meeting’s outcome may hinge on whether Tan can align Intel’s roadmap with Trump’s manufacturing agenda.


What’s Trump After in Lip-Bu Tan’s Oval Office Meeting?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits</li>
<li>Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. </li>
<li>Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits
Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. 
Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.


US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CDNS, SNPS each fall &gt;10% on the back of further US restrictions on sale to China</li>
<li>Both of their China revenues were around 10% in the most recent quarter, albeit in the case of CDNS, it was 15% in the year ago quarter</li>
<li>China's domestic EDA ecosystem has grown significantly in recent years. These latest restrictions, if fully implemented, will simply serve to further accelerate its development</li>
</ul>


CDNS, SNPS each fall &gt;10% on the back of further US restrictions on sale to China
Both of their China revenues were around 10% in the most recent quarter, albeit in the case of CDNS, it was 15% in the year ago quarter
China's domestic EDA ecosystem has grown significantly in recent years. These latest restrictions, if fully implemented, will simply serve to further accelerate its development


Latest US Restrictions On EDA Sales To China Tanks CDNS, SNPS

<ul>
<li>China represents ~11% of revenues for Cadence and Synopsys. The weight of China has been declining. </li>
<li>China has a number of startup working on replacement software, the leader is Empyrean – good but some years behind Cadence and Synopsys and focused on legacy chip design. </li>
<li>Between this news today and more restrictions on Nvidia’s sales to China, it looks like more US restrictions will come.</li>
</ul>


China represents ~11% of revenues for Cadence and Synopsys. The weight of China has been declining. 
China has a number of startup working on replacement software, the leader is Empyrean – good but some years behind Cadence and Synopsys and focused on legacy chip design. 
Between this news today and more restrictions on Nvidia’s sales to China, it looks like more US restrictions will come.


President Trump “orders US Chip Software Suppliers to Stop Selling to China”

United States

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. provides software technology, design and consulting services and technology.  The Company licenses its electronic design automation software technology and provides a variety of professional services.  Cadence's design realization solutions are used to design and develop complex chips and electronic systems, including semiconductors.

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Cadence Design Sys (CDNS US)

Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

Downgrading Utilities $XLU to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Time for Prior Leadership to Shine? $IGV $PLTR $APP $SOUN $RZLV $SHOP $FROG $U...

Vermilion Research

What’s Trump After in Lip-Bu Tan’s Oval Office Meeting?

Tensions rise as Intel CEO Tan prepares to meet with Trump, facing strategic differences over investments and manufacturing alignment.

Mint Finance

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Nicolas Baratte

Latest US Restrictions On EDA Sales To China Tanks CDNS, SNPS

China's domestic EDA ecosystem has grown significantly in recent years. These latest restrictions, if fully implemented, will simply serve to...

William Keating

President Trump “orders US Chip Software Suppliers to Stop Selling to China”

US could restrict US chip design software vendors to sell to China. China represents 11% of Cadence and Synopsys revenues. Leading Chinese...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

Downgrading Utilities $XLU to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Time for Prior Leadership to Shine? $IGV $PLTR $APP $SOUN $RZLV $SHOP $FROG $U...

Vermilion Research

What’s Trump After in Lip-Bu Tan’s Oval Office Meeting?

​Tensions rise as Intel CEO Tan prepares to meet with Trump, facing strategic differences over investments and manufacturing alignment.

Mint Finance

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

​Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Nicolas Baratte

Latest US Restrictions On EDA Sales To China Tanks CDNS, SNPS

China's domestic EDA ecosystem has grown significantly in recent years. These latest restrictions, if fully implemented, will simply serve to...

William Keating

President Trump “orders US Chip Software Suppliers to Stop Selling to China”

US could restrict US chip design software vendors to sell to China. ​China represents 11% of Cadence and Synopsys revenues. Leading Chinese...

Nicolas Baratte

Tensions rise as Intel CEO Tan prepares to meet with Trump, facing strategic differences over investments and manufacturing alignment.

Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

US could restrict US chip design software vendors to sell to China. China represents 11% of Cadence and Synopsys revenues. Leading Chinese...