Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they <em>are</em> in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/068/original/2020-07-09_13-43-33.png?1594269841" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145068"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>WHAT CURRENCY RISK?</strong> - It seems rather old-fashioned to raise the topic of currency risk in relation to potential stressors on Japanese listed companies. Compared to the thirty-five years to 2015, the last five years have been a period of benign calm in the USD/JPY exchange rate, aided and abetted by the action of central banks to eliminate interest rates and the functioning of the bond markets. Most observers expect this currency stability regime to continue and COVID-19 has so far only seen one short 'blip' to ¥102.36 on 9th March.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/095/original/2020-07-09_15-04-02.png?1594274675" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145095"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>¥ BELOW 100</strong> -  If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when Yen has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975. The three Yen 'peaks' we have highlighted above in 1995, 2011, and 2016 proved excellent entry points. The subsequent trough-to-peak performance was 43%, 139%, and 60%, respectively. The COVID-19-induced trough-to-peak is, so far, just 31%.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/101/original/2020-07-09_15-13-11.png?1594275216" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145101"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>KEY DRIVER </strong>- Nevertheless, for an increasingly-global Japan, the USDJPY exchange rate remains a key driver of earnings. With a lag of six months, the peaks and troughs of the USDJPY exchange rate have coincided with turning points in the earnings cycle as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score. The six-month lag suggests that ignoring the impact of COVID-19, the exchange rate is mildly supportive of earnings momentum for the balance of 2020.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• CORRELATION ANALYSIS •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/499/original/2020-07-12_12-55-49.png?1594526165" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145499"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/500/original/2020-07-12_13-13-53.png?1594527254" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145500"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>CORRELATIONS</strong> - Our analysis of the currency risk of specific companies will be in two parts. The first and simplest is to examine the long-term positive and negative correlations of each listed larger-capitalisation company against the US dollar and Euro for the split-adjusted share price. This analysis will yield some surprising results, including the positive US Dollar correlation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18582:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Express (9062 JP)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7117:1" rel="noopener">Nikon (7731 JP)</a> is negatively correlated. </p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/502/original/2020-07-12_13-22-12.png?1594527750" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145502"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>FCTA </strong>- The second part is perhaps more abstruse, however but is a more accurate estimation of the actual currency risk embedded in the business model.  The Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment (FCTA) is part of Other Comprehensive Income and has been disclosed in Japanese GAAP-based balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored. For example, the decline in the US dollar from ¥123 to ¥101 in 2016 resulted in a six-quarter ¥53 trillion negative FCTA adjustment, 65% of the gap between Net Income and CITC over that period.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/273/original/2020-07-10_16-08-25.png?1594364929" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145273"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>CITC &amp; NET INCOME</strong> - Comprehensive Income adds a series of adjustments to Net Income to reflect as-yet-unrealised changes from currency translations, securities valuation differences, pensions, and deferred hedges. These adjustments are subsequently 'recycled' as and when realisations occur. In aggregate over the last seven years, Comprehensive Income has exceeded Net Income by a cumulative ¥56 trillion or 7%. However, as Comprehensive Income is inherently a more volatile data series, it is eschewed or overlooked by most analysts despite the direct impact on Shareholders' Equity. Nevertheless, Comprehensive Income illustrates that, as a result of increased globalisation and investments in marketable securities, the underlying earnings of Japanese corporates have become riskier than is implied by Net Income. In 2017, the FCTA resulted in an aggregate loss for Comprehensive Income to Common (CITC) and a corresponding decline in Shareholders' Equity for non-financial Japanese companies.  In the last two reported quarters, the 'gap' between Net Income and CITC has begun to widen again as both Valuation Differences and the FCTA have turned negative.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/447/original/2020-07-12_10-58-45.png?1594519146" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145447"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FCTA BY SECTOR</strong> - Two-thirds of the total absolute FCTA over the last seven years comes from seven Sectors - <strong>Autos</strong>, <strong>Wholesale</strong>, <strong>Electrical Equipment</strong>,<strong> Technology Hardware</strong>, <strong>Machinery</strong>, <strong>Other Consumer Products</strong> and <strong>Telecommunications </strong>(Softbank Group). The least-exposed Sectors are<strong> Services</strong>, <strong>IT</strong> &amp;<strong> Internet</strong>,<strong> Multi-Industry</strong> and<strong> Restaurants</strong>.</p><hr><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall look at the Accumulated Balance Sheet Foreign Currency Adjustments where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> have the most significant amounts of positive and negative Accumulated FCTA's relative to Equity, respectively.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/448/original/2020-07-12_11-12-20.png?1594519955" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145448"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/617/original/2020-07-13_15-35-04.png?1594622118" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145617"></figure><p>Source • Japan Analytics</p>
</div><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>This Part 6 concludes our Stress Test series. However, forthcoming Insights will look at the Valuation Differences component of Other Comprehensive Income and those companies with the most substantial CITC/Net Income 'gaps'.</strong></p></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsWHAT CURRENCY RISK? - It seems rather old-fashioned to raise the topic of currency risk in relation to potential stressors on Japanese listed companies. Compared to the thirty-five years to 2015, the last five years have been a period of benign calm in the USD/JPY exchange rate, aided and abetted by the action of central banks to eliminate interest rates and the functioning of the bond markets. Most observers expect this currency stability regime to continue and COVID-19 has so far only seen one short 'blip' to ¥102.36 on 9th March.Source • Japan Analytics¥ BELOW 100 -  If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when Yen has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975. The three Yen 'peaks' we have highlighted above in 1995, 2011, and 2016 proved excellent entry points. The subsequent trough-to-peak performance was 43%, 139%, and 60%, respectively. The COVID-19-induced trough-to-peak is, so far, just 31%.Source • Japan AnalyticsKEY DRIVER - Nevertheless, for an increasingly-global Japan, the USDJPY exchange rate remains a key driver of earnings. With a lag of six months, the peaks and troughs of the USDJPY exchange rate have coincided with turning points in the earnings cycle as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score. The six-month lag suggests that ignoring the impact of COVID-19, the exchange rate is mildly supportive of earnings momentum for the balance of 2020.• CORRELATION ANALYSIS •Source • Japan AnalyticsCORRELATIONS - Our analysis of the currency risk of specific companies will be in two parts. The first and simplest is to examine the long-term positive and negative correlations of each listed larger-capitalisation company against the US dollar and Euro for the split-adjusted share price. This analysis will yield some surprising results, including the positive US Dollar correlation of Nippon Express (9062 JP), while Nikon (7731 JP) is negatively correlated. • THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT •Source • Japan AnalyticsFCTA - The second part is perhaps more abstruse, however but is a more accurate estimation of the actual currency risk embedded in the business model.  The Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment (FCTA) is part of Other Comprehensive Income and has been disclosed in Japanese GAAP-based balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored. For example, the decline in the US dollar from ¥123 to ¥101 in 2016 resulted in a six-quarter ¥53 trillion negative FCTA adjustment, 65% of the gap between Net Income and CITC over that period.Source • Japan AnalyticsCITC &amp; NET INCOME - Comprehensive Income adds a series of adjustments to Net Income to reflect as-yet-unrealised changes from currency translations, securities valuation differences, pensions, and deferred hedges. These adjustments are subsequently 'recycled' as and when realisations occur. In aggregate over the last seven years, Comprehensive Income has exceeded Net Income by a cumulative ¥56 trillion or 7%. However, as Comprehensive Income is inherently a more volatile data series, it is eschewed or overlooked by most analysts despite the direct impact on Shareholders' Equity. Nevertheless, Comprehensive Income illustrates that, as a result of increased globalisation and investments in marketable securities, the underlying earnings of Japanese corporates have become riskier than is implied by Net Income. In 2017, the FCTA resulted in an aggregate loss for Comprehensive Income to Common (CITC) and a corresponding decline in Shareholders' Equity for non-financial Japanese companies.  In the last two reported quarters, the 'gap' between Net Income and CITC has begun to widen again as both Valuation Differences and the FCTA have turned negative.Source • Japan AnalyticsFCTA BY SECTOR - Two-thirds of the total absolute FCTA over the last seven years comes from seven Sectors - Autos, Wholesale, Electrical Equipment, Technology Hardware, Machinery, Other Consumer Products and Telecommunications (Softbank Group). The least-exposed Sectors are Services, IT &amp; Internet, Multi-Industry and Restaurants.In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the Accumulated Balance Sheet Foreign Currency Adjustments where Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) and Dic Corp (4631 JP) have the most significant amounts of positive and negative Accumulated FCTA's relative to Equity, respectively.
Source • Japan Analytics
This Part 6 concludes our Stress Test series. However, forthcoming Insights will look at the Valuation Differences component of Other Comprehensive Income and those companies with the most substantial CITC/Net Income 'gaps'.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 6: Currency Risk

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>The following is an in-depth review of the big three Japanese convenience store (CVS) players, Seven Eleven (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1041" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">Familymart (8028 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1040" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a>. This follows <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-convenience-stores-still-innovating-in-a-saturated-market" target="_blank">our review of the Japanese convenience store sector overall</a>, which is best to read first.</p>
<p>The key operational and strategic themes relevant to investors regarding the Big Three in Japan:</p>
<ul class="">
<li>Saturation has encouraged the top three operators to take over the remaining smaller chains while pushing into regions where they have fewer stores.</li>
<li>All are expanding new forms of retail:
<ul>
<li>Seven Eleven and Lawson have launched new e-commerce ventures that make the best use of their existing store networks and could reach national coverage quite soon.</li>
<li>Diversification: Familymart, in particular, is tying with all manner of partners to try and come up with a hit hybrid format to find new growth.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>While competition from drugstores and discount food retailers is a threat, convenience stores will continue to find new growth from e-commerce, hybrid stores and innovative products.</li>
</ul>

The following is an in-depth review of the big three Japanese convenience store (CVS) players, Seven Eleven (Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)), Familymart (8028 JP) and Lawson Inc (2651 JP). This follows our review of the Japanese convenience store sector overall, which is best to read first.
The key operational and strategic themes relevant to investors regarding the Big Three in Japan:

Saturation has encouraged the top three operators to take over the remaining smaller chains while pushing into regions where they have fewer stores.
All are expanding new forms of retail:

Seven Eleven and Lawson have launched new e-commerce ventures that make the best use of their existing store networks and could reach national coverage quite soon.
Diversification: Familymart, in particular, is tying with all manner of partners to try and come up with a hit hybrid format to find new growth.


While competition from drugstores and discount food retailers is a threat, convenience stores will continue to find new growth from e-commerce, hybrid stores and innovative products.


Seven Eleven, Familymart and Lawson Find New Growth Strategies in Tighter Market

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<p><strong>INTRODUCTION</strong> - The second, and final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review for Summer 2018 will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters among larger and middle capitalisation companies in Japan based on their most recent quarterly results and forecasts. The data series covers over 160,000 quarterly results and 120,000 initial forecasts or forecasts revisions. The scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measure for each metric the rate, degree and consistency of change. Each score ranges from a maximum of +30 to a minimum of -30 for each period.</p><p><strong>SUMMARY TABLES</strong> - The tables below give the top and bottom ten companies by Results Score and the ten 'Most Optimistic' and ten 'Most Pessimistic companies based on the difference between their Results Scores and Revision Scores. </p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RESULTS SCORE TOP 10</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/232/original/2018-08-21_11-07-40.png?1534817272" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61232"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>RESULTS SCORE BOTTOM 10</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/247/original/2018-08-21_11-48-00.png?1534819694" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61247"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>MOST OPTIMISTIC </strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/341/original/2018-08-22_10-41-33.png?1534902426" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61341"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>MOST PESSIMISTIC</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/342/original/2018-08-22_10-44-42.png?1534902469" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61342"></figure><div class="content-caption">All tables &gt; Source: Japan Analytics</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">
<strong>Legend:</strong> ▲ and ▼ arrows indicate Score changes in the top and bottom ten per cent, respectively. The Relative Price Score measures the difference between the current relative price and the mean absolute deviation of relative prices since listing which allows for a comparison of all companies on the same absolute scale. We consider differences in the top or bottom percentiles of historical observations to be 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' and these states mark them "•" and "+", respectively.  Valuation 'QUADrants' group companies into the top and bottom 20% of TTM PER and PBR ranges and categorise companies that are outliers in both into four quadrants: "FP" = Fully Priced, "SP" = Speculative, "MT" = Mature and "DV" = Deep Value. 'NE' represents negative TTM Net Income. Forecasts older than 180 days are excluded. The Forecast Accuracy Score ('FAS') is a measure of a company’s forecast accuracy-very time and is derived from the cumulative deviations of the Revenue and Operating Income forecasts from the year-end results. 100 is a perfect score; there is no minimum score. The fewer and the more accurate the forecasts, the higher the score.  A score of over 70 indicates that the current forecast is likely to be achieved. Where there is insufficient data, or if the company has not made any forecasts in the last five years, the column entry will be blank. We would be cautious reading too much into the forecasts of the companies with low Forecast Accuracy.</div><p><strong>LONG AND SHORT PORTFOLIOS</strong> - Also, we provide below long and shorts portfolios of companies where we see a significant divergence between the business performance and current share prices.</p>

INTRODUCTION - The second, and final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review for Summer 2018 will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters among larger and middle capitalisation companies in Japan based on their most recent quarterly results and forecasts. The data series covers over 160,000 quarterly results and 120,000 initial forecasts or forecasts revisions. The scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measure for each metric the rate, degree and consistency of change. Each score ranges from a maximum of +30 to a minimum of -30 for each period.SUMMARY TABLES - The tables below give the top and bottom ten companies by Results Score and the ten 'Most Optimistic' and ten 'Most Pessimistic companies based on the difference between their Results Scores and Revision Scores. RESULTS SCORE TOP 10RESULTS SCORE BOTTOM 10MOST OPTIMISTIC MOST PESSIMISTICAll tables &gt; Source: Japan Analytics
Legend: ▲ and ▼ arrows indicate Score changes in the top and bottom ten per cent, respectively. The Relative Price Score measures the difference between the current relative price and the mean absolute deviation of relative prices since listing which allows for a comparison of all companies on the same absolute scale. We consider differences in the top or bottom percentiles of historical observations to be 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' and these states mark them "•" and "+", respectively.  Valuation 'QUADrants' group companies into the top and bottom 20% of TTM PER and PBR ranges and categorise companies that are outliers in both into four quadrants: "FP" = Fully Priced, "SP" = Speculative, "MT" = Mature and "DV" = Deep Value. 'NE' represents negative TTM Net Income. Forecasts older than 180 days are excluded. The Forecast Accuracy Score ('FAS') is a measure of a company’s forecast accuracy-very time and is derived from the cumulative deviations of the Revenue and Operating Income forecasts from the year-end results. 100 is a perfect score; there is no minimum score. The fewer and the more accurate the forecasts, the higher the score.  A score of over 70 indicates that the current forecast is likely to be achieved. Where there is insufficient data, or if the company has not made any forecasts in the last five years, the column entry will be blank. We would be cautious reading too much into the forecasts of the companies with low Forecast Accuracy.LONG AND SHORT PORTFOLIOS - Also, we provide below long and shorts portfolios of companies where we see a significant divergence between the business performance and current share prices.

Japan: Scoring Results & Revisions Summer 2018 - Top and Bottom Companies + Long & Short Portfolios

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>With a good portion of Japanese companies having already announced 1H results, we looked at the names that are well positioned for the second half. Names that could potentially beat full-year estimates. We basically screened for names that have already achieved greater than 60% of full-year consensus OP estimates and have also increased full-year Company OP guidance in the last month. </p><h2>Screen Criteria</h2><ol>
<li>Mkt-cap above ¥50bn</li>
<li>Fiscal year ending on March 31</li>
<li>Greater than 60% of full-year OP consensus is…</li>
</ol>

With a good portion of Japanese companies having already announced 1H results, we looked at the names that are well positioned for the second half. Names that could potentially beat full-year estimates. We basically screened for names that have already achieved greater than 60% of full-year consensus OP estimates and have also increased full-year Company OP guidance in the last month. Screen Criteria
Mkt-cap above ¥50bn
Fiscal year ending on March 31
Greater than 60% of full-year OP consensus is…


Names Potentially Well Positioned to Beat Year-End Estimates

Japan

CALBEE, Inc. manufactures a wide range of snack foods using potato, wheat, and corn as a main ingredient. The company also manufactures bakery products and cereals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Calbee Inc (2229 JP)

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 6: Currency Risk

WHAT CURRENCY RISK? - It seems rather old-fashioned to raise the topic of currency risk in relation to potential stressors on Japanese listed...

Campbell Gunn

Seven Eleven, Familymart and Lawson Find New Growth Strategies in Tighter Market

The following is an in-depth review of the big three Japanese convenience store (CVS) players, Seven Eleven (Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)),...

Michael Causton

Japan: Scoring Results & Revisions Summer 2018 - Top and Bottom Companies + Long & Short Portfolios

INTRODUCTION - The second, and final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review for Summer 2018 will look at the leading and lagging...

Campbell Gunn

Names Potentially Well Positioned to Beat Year-End Estimates

With a good portion of Japanese companies having already announced 1H results, we looked at the names that are well positioned for the second half....

Custom Products Group

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)