Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After failing to take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/calbee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17054:1" rel="noopener">Calbee Inc (2229 JP)</a> forward for 4+ years, CEO Mr. Shuji Ito is retiring at the end of the next quarter.</li>
<li>He is being replaced by the current COO and the former EVP of Calbee’s Overseas business Mr. Makoto Ehara.</li>
<li>From what he has done since he was appointed the COO and in the Overseas business, we are hopeful that he will turn Calbee’s fortunes around in the medium term.</li>
</ul>


After failing to take Calbee Inc (2229 JP) forward for 4+ years, CEO Mr. Shuji Ito is retiring at the end of the next quarter.
He is being replaced by the current COO and the former EVP of Calbee’s Overseas business Mr. Makoto Ehara.
From what he has done since he was appointed the COO and in the Overseas business, we are hopeful that he will turn Calbee’s fortunes around in the medium term.


Calbee: New CEO Seems Ready To Make Necessary Action

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX close near Feb lows as US 2Y hits 4.82%; Inflation -   Mkt sees higher for longer; AMAT disrupt ASML Monopoly? ;  GS gets thumbs down; TESLA DAY</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 136.2;  Toshiba Deal in Doubt; Bullish Calbee Investment Plan; Chinese Real Estate Mkt looking up: + Daikin/Toto; Broker Sell D/G: Makita, Nippon Steel</li>
<li>NUGGET:  Cyberagent - Loss Making Media business set for a turnaround. Looking discounted and the sell off since late 2021,  and given the outlook for its 3 businesses.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX close near Feb lows as US 2Y hits 4.82%; Inflation -   Mkt sees higher for longer; AMAT disrupt ASML Monopoly? ;  GS gets thumbs down; TESLA DAY
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 136.2;  Toshiba Deal in Doubt; Bullish Calbee Investment Plan; Chinese Real Estate Mkt looking up: + Daikin/Toto; Broker Sell D/G: Makita, Nippon Steel
NUGGET:  Cyberagent - Loss Making Media business set for a turnaround. Looking discounted and the sell off since late 2021,  and given the outlook for its 3 businesses.


Good Morning Japan |SPX: Top-Left, Bottom-Right Feb; US2YR@4.82 ; JP Baby Crisis; Nugget: CyberAgent

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Pulls Back for 2nd day as Spy Balloons dominate - mkts just stretched;  Google responds to ChatGPT with BARD; Dell cuts headcount as PC struggle continues</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Fut flat vs Cash; USDJPY 132.63; Govt denies BOJ-Amamiya claim(really !); Son to skip Softban earnings call; Masa Takafumi wins Grammy with Sakura!</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. MHI  formalizes exit from Spacejet. No surprise as it has been on ice for 2 years.   Opportunity to put a positive spin on the $7bn failure.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Pulls Back for 2nd day as Spy Balloons dominate - mkts just stretched;  Google responds to ChatGPT with BARD; Dell cuts headcount as PC struggle continues
JAPAN. NKY Fut flat vs Cash; USDJPY 132.63; Govt denies BOJ-Amamiya claim(really !); Son to skip Softban earnings call; Masa Takafumi wins Grammy with Sakura!
DAILY NUGGET. MHI  formalizes exit from Spacejet. No surprise as it has been on ice for 2 years.   Opportunity to put a positive spin on the $7bn failure.


Good Morning Japan | Spy Balloons?? SPX Holds; Google Responds with BARD; BOJ AMAMIYA Story Refuted!

<ul>
<li>Japan’s largest snacks maker, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/calbee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17054:1" rel="noopener">Calbee Inc (2229 JP)</a> has raised prices by 10-20% for almost 75% of its product range.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, main inputs such as potatoes and palm oil have seen extensive price drops in the past few months.</li>
<li>With margin pressures alleviating from both angles (revenue &amp; cost), we think Calbee’s FY24 OP is bound to exceed ¥30.0bn.</li>
</ul>


Japan’s largest snacks maker, Calbee Inc (2229 JP) has raised prices by 10-20% for almost 75% of its product range.
Meanwhile, main inputs such as potatoes and palm oil have seen extensive price drops in the past few months.
With margin pressures alleviating from both angles (revenue &amp; cost), we think Calbee’s FY24 OP is bound to exceed ¥30.0bn.


Calbee’s FY24 OP Is Bound to Exceed ¥30.0bn

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/calbee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17054:1" rel="noopener">Calbee Inc (2229 JP)</a>’s share price fell 4% today from the top end of the trend channel as 2QFY23 OP fell short of consensus by ¥658m to ¥4.9bn.</li>
<li>There was also a ¥3.5bn downgrade to full-year OP guidance on higher-than-expected energy and raw material costs. However, this seems too conservative, especially with 10-20% price hikes in September-November.</li>
<li>In addition, share buy-backs are starting to become a regular part of shareholder returns with ¥12.0bn per-year in share buybacks in the previous fiscal year and the current fiscal year.</li>
</ul>



Calbee Inc (2229 JP)’s share price fell 4% today from the top end of the trend channel as 2QFY23 OP fell short of consensus by ¥658m to ¥4.9bn.
There was also a ¥3.5bn downgrade to full-year OP guidance on higher-than-expected energy and raw material costs. However, this seems too conservative, especially with 10-20% price hikes in September-November.
In addition, share buy-backs are starting to become a regular part of shareholder returns with ¥12.0bn per-year in share buybacks in the previous fiscal year and the current fiscal year.


Calbee – Price Hikes to Deliver Upside As Buybacks Provide Downside Protection

Japan

CALBEE, Inc. manufactures a wide range of snack foods using potato, wheat, and corn as a main ingredient. The company also manufactures bakery products and cereals.

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Calbee Inc (2229 JP)

Calbee: New CEO Seems Ready To Make Necessary Action

From what he has done since he was appointed the COO and in the Overseas business, we are hopeful that the new CEO will turn Calbee’s fortunes...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Good Morning Japan |SPX: Top-Left, Bottom-Right Feb; [email protected] ; JP Baby Crisis; Nugget: CyberAgent

SPX closes Feb on the lows; Baby Crisis in Japan. Toshiba Deal in Doubt; Bullish Calbee Investment Plan; Chinese Real Estate Mkt looking up: +...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | Spy Balloons?? SPX Holds; Google Responds with BARD; BOJ AMAMIYA Story Refuted!

NKY Fut flat vs Cash; USDJPY 132.63; Govt denies BOJ-Amamiya claim(really !); Son to skip Softban earnings call; Masa Takafumi wins Grammy with...

Mark Chadwick

Calbee’s FY24 OP Is Bound to Exceed ¥30.0bn

With both pricing growth and lower input costs pushing up the company’s earnings, we think Calbee’s FY24 OP could easily surpass ¥30.0bn to beat...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Calbee – Price Hikes to Deliver Upside As Buybacks Provide Downside Protection

There was also a ¥3.5bn downgrade to full-year OP guidance on energy and raw material costs growth. However, this downgrade seems too conservative,...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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