'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/068/original/2020-07-09_13-43-33.png?1594269841" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145068"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>WHAT CURRENCY RISK? - It seems rather old-fashioned to raise the topic of currency risk in relation to potential stressors on Japanese listed companies. Compared to the thirty-five years to 2015, the last five years have been a period of benign calm in the USD/JPY exchange rate, aided and abetted by the action of central banks to eliminate interest rates and the functioning of the bond markets. Most observers expect this currency stability regime to continue and COVID-19 has so far only seen one short 'blip' to ¥102.36 on 9th March.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/095/original/2020-07-09_15-04-02.png?1594274675" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145095"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>¥ BELOW 100 -  If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when Yen has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975. The three Yen 'peaks' we have highlighted above in 1995, 2011, and 2016 proved excellent entry points. The subsequent trough-to-peak performance was 43%, 139%, and 60%, respectively. The COVID-19-induced trough-to-peak is, so far, just 31%.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/101/original/2020-07-09_15-13-11.png?1594275216" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145101"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>KEY DRIVER - Nevertheless, for an increasingly-global Japan, the USDJPY exchange rate remains a key driver of earnings. With a lag of six months, the peaks and troughs of the USDJPY exchange rate have coincided with turning points in the earnings cycle as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score. The six-month lag suggests that ignoring the impact of COVID-19, the exchange rate is mildly supportive of earnings momentum for the balance of 2020.<hr>• CORRELATION ANALYSIS •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/499/original/2020-07-12_12-55-49.png?1594526165" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145499"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/500/original/2020-07-12_13-13-53.png?1594527254" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145500"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div>CORRELATIONS - Our analysis of the currency risk of specific companies will be in two parts. The first and simplest is to examine the long-term positive and negative correlations of each listed larger-capitalisation company against the US dollar and Euro for the split-adjusted share price. This analysis will yield some surprising results, including the positive US Dollar correlation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18582:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Express (9062 JP)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7117:1" rel="noopener">Nikon (7731 JP)</a> is negatively correlated. <hr>• THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/502/original/2020-07-12_13-22-12.png?1594527750" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145502"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>FCTA - The second part is perhaps more abstruse, however but is a more accurate estimation of the actual currency risk embedded in the business model.  The Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment (FCTA) is part of Other Comprehensive Income and has been disclosed in Japanese GAAP-based balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored. For example, the decline in the US dollar from ¥123 to ¥101 in 2016 resulted in a six-quarter ¥53 trillion negative FCTA adjustment, 65% of the gap between Net Income and CITC over that period.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/273/original/2020-07-10_16-08-25.png?1594364929" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145273"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>CITC &amp; NET INCOME - Comprehensive Income adds a series of adjustments to Net Income to reflect as-yet-unrealised changes from currency translations, securities valuation differences, pensions, and deferred hedges. These adjustments are subsequently 'recycled' as and when realisations occur. In aggregate over the last seven years, Comprehensive Income has exceeded Net Income by a cumulative ¥56 trillion or 7%. However, as Comprehensive Income is inherently a more volatile data series, it is eschewed or overlooked by most analysts despite the direct impact on Shareholders' Equity. Nevertheless, Comprehensive Income illustrates that, as a result of increased globalisation and investments in marketable securities, the underlying earnings of Japanese corporates have become riskier than is implied by Net Income. In 2017, the FCTA resulted in an aggregate loss for Comprehensive Income to Common (CITC) and a corresponding decline in Shareholders' Equity for non-financial Japanese companies.  In the last two reported quarters, the 'gap' between Net Income and CITC has begun to widen again as both Valuation Differences and the FCTA have turned negative.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/447/original/2020-07-12_10-58-45.png?1594519146" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145447"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>FCTA BY SECTOR - Two-thirds of the total absolute FCTA over the last seven years comes from seven Sectors - Autos, Wholesale, Electrical Equipment, Technology Hardware, Machinery, Other Consumer Products and Telecommunications (Softbank Group). The least-exposed Sectors are Services, IT &amp; Internet, Multi-Industry and Restaurants.<hr>In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the Accumulated Balance Sheet Foreign Currency Adjustments where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> have the most significant amounts of positive and negative Accumulated FCTA's relative to Equity, respectively.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/448/original/2020-07-12_11-12-20.png?1594519955" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145448"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/617/original/2020-07-13_15-35-04.png?1594622118" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145617"></figure>Source • Japan Analytics
</div><div class="content-highlight">This Part 6 concludes our Stress Test series. However, forthcoming Insights will look at the Valuation Differences component of Other Comprehensive Income and those companies with the most substantial CITC/Net Income 'gaps'.</div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsWHAT CURRENCY RISK? - It seems rather old-fashioned to raise the topic of currency risk in relation to potential stressors on Japanese listed companies. Compared to the thirty-five years to 2015, the last five years have been a period of benign calm in the USD/JPY exchange rate, aided and abetted by the action of central banks to eliminate interest rates and the functioning of the bond markets. Most observers expect this currency stability regime to continue and COVID-19 has so far only seen one short 'blip' to ¥102.36 on 9th March.Source • Japan Analytics¥ BELOW 100 -  If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when Yen has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975. The three Yen 'peaks' we have highlighted above in 1995, 2011, and 2016 proved excellent entry points. The subsequent trough-to-peak performance was 43%, 139%, and 60%, respectively. The COVID-19-induced trough-to-peak is, so far, just 31%.Source • Japan AnalyticsKEY DRIVER - Nevertheless, for an increasingly-global Japan, the USDJPY exchange rate remains a key driver of earnings. With a lag of six months, the peaks and troughs of the USDJPY exchange rate have coincided with turning points in the earnings cycle as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score. The six-month lag suggests that ignoring the impact of COVID-19, the exchange rate is mildly supportive of earnings momentum for the balance of 2020.• CORRELATION ANALYSIS •Source • Japan AnalyticsCORRELATIONS - Our analysis of the currency risk of specific companies will be in two parts. The first and simplest is to examine the long-term positive and negative correlations of each listed larger-capitalisation company against the US dollar and Euro for the split-adjusted share price. This analysis will yield some surprising results, including the positive US Dollar correlation of Nippon Express (9062 JP), while Nikon (7731 JP) is negatively correlated. • THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT •Source • Japan AnalyticsFCTA - The second part is perhaps more abstruse, however but is a more accurate estimation of the actual currency risk embedded in the business model.  The Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment (FCTA) is part of Other Comprehensive Income and has been disclosed in Japanese GAAP-based balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored. For example, the decline in the US dollar from ¥123 to ¥101 in 2016 resulted in a six-quarter ¥53 trillion negative FCTA adjustment, 65% of the gap between Net Income and CITC over that period.Source • Japan AnalyticsCITC &amp; NET INCOME - Comprehensive Income adds a series of adjustments to Net Income to reflect as-yet-unrealised changes from currency translations, securities valuation differences, pensions, and deferred hedges. These adjustments are subsequently 'recycled' as and when realisations occur. In aggregate over the last seven years, Comprehensive Income has exceeded Net Income by a cumulative ¥56 trillion or 7%. However, as Comprehensive Income is inherently a more volatile data series, it is eschewed or overlooked by most analysts despite the direct impact on Shareholders' Equity. Nevertheless, Comprehensive Income illustrates that, as a result of increased globalisation and investments in marketable securities, the underlying earnings of Japanese corporates have become riskier than is implied by Net Income. In 2017, the FCTA resulted in an aggregate loss for Comprehensive Income to Common (CITC) and a corresponding decline in Shareholders' Equity for non-financial Japanese companies.  In the last two reported quarters, the 'gap' between Net Income and CITC has begun to widen again as both Valuation Differences and the FCTA have turned negative.Source • Japan AnalyticsFCTA BY SECTOR - Two-thirds of the total absolute FCTA over the last seven years comes from seven Sectors - Autos, Wholesale, Electrical Equipment, Technology Hardware, Machinery, Other Consumer Products and Telecommunications (Softbank Group). The least-exposed Sectors are Services, IT &amp; Internet, Multi-Industry and Restaurants.In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the Accumulated Balance Sheet Foreign Currency Adjustments where Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) and Dic Corp (4631 JP) have the most significant amounts of positive and negative Accumulated FCTA's relative to Equity, respectively.
Source • Japan Analytics
This Part 6 concludes our Stress Test series. However, forthcoming Insights will look at the Valuation Differences component of Other Comprehensive Income and those companies with the most substantial CITC/Net Income 'gaps'.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 6: Currency Risk

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1H and 9MFY2019 earnings misses forced Calbee to revise its FY2019 estimates</li>
<li>Increased costs, slower progress in international markets and sluggish Frugra brand sales led the company to revise its FY2019 estimates</li>
<li>Nikkei POS data: average price per unit is on a decline</li>
<li>Frugra brand recovery comes at the expense of average price per unit</li>
<li>Potato chips and potato-based snacks: sluggish performance driven by declining average price per unit</li>
<li>Unable to pass the cost inflation to customers due to falling average price per unit</li>
<li>Mid-term plan: unconvinced by Calbee’s plan for its domestic business</li>
<li>Falling out of favor with the Buy Side</li>
<li>The status quo on which the investment thesis is based on is changing</li>
<li>Conclusion</li>
</ul>


1H and 9MFY2019 earnings misses forced Calbee to revise its FY2019 estimates
Increased costs, slower progress in international markets and sluggish Frugra brand sales led the company to revise its FY2019 estimates
Nikkei POS data: average price per unit is on a decline
Frugra brand recovery comes at the expense of average price per unit
Potato chips and potato-based snacks: sluggish performance driven by declining average price per unit
Unable to pass the cost inflation to customers due to falling average price per unit
Mid-term plan: unconvinced by Calbee’s plan for its domestic business
Falling out of favor with the Buy Side
The status quo on which the investment thesis is based on is changing
Conclusion


Calbee Inc: Falling Average Price Per Unit Causes Concern Among Investors

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/230/original/2019-02-26_16-49-25.png?1551182690" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80230"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 
<ul>
<li>The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.</li>
<li>By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.</li>
<li>As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.
<ul>
<li>In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. </li>
<li>For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.</li>
<li>The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   </li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.</li>
</ul>



Source: Japan Analytics

LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 

The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.
By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.
As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.

In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. 
For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.
The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   


Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.


🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

The following is an in-depth review of the big three Japanese convenience store (CVS) players, Seven Eleven (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1041" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">Familymart (8028 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1040" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a>. This follows <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-convenience-stores-still-innovating-in-a-saturated-market" target="_blank">our review of the Japanese convenience store sector overall</a>, which is best to read first.
The key operational and strategic themes relevant to investors regarding the Big Three in Japan:
<ul class="">
<li>Saturation has encouraged the top three operators to take over the remaining smaller chains while pushing into regions where they have fewer stores.</li>
<li>All are expanding new forms of retail:
<ul>
<li>Seven Eleven and Lawson have launched new e-commerce ventures that make the best use of their existing store networks and could reach national coverage quite soon.</li>
<li>Diversification: Familymart, in particular, is tying with all manner of partners to try and come up with a hit hybrid format to find new growth.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>While competition from drugstores and discount food retailers is a threat, convenience stores will continue to find new growth from e-commerce, hybrid stores and innovative products.</li>
</ul>

The following is an in-depth review of the big three Japanese convenience store (CVS) players, Seven Eleven (Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)), Familymart (8028 JP) and Lawson Inc (2651 JP). This follows our review of the Japanese convenience store sector overall, which is best to read first.
The key operational and strategic themes relevant to investors regarding the Big Three in Japan:

Saturation has encouraged the top three operators to take over the remaining smaller chains while pushing into regions where they have fewer stores.
All are expanding new forms of retail:

Seven Eleven and Lawson have launched new e-commerce ventures that make the best use of their existing store networks and could reach national coverage quite soon.
Diversification: Familymart, in particular, is tying with all manner of partners to try and come up with a hit hybrid format to find new growth.


While competition from drugstores and discount food retailers is a threat, convenience stores will continue to find new growth from e-commerce, hybrid stores and innovative products.


Seven Eleven, Familymart and Lawson Find New Growth Strategies in Tighter Market

INTRODUCTION - The second, and final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review for Summer 2018 will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters among larger and middle capitalisation companies in Japan based on their most recent quarterly results and forecasts. The data series covers over 160,000 quarterly results and 120,000 initial forecasts or forecasts revisions. The scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measure for each metric the rate, degree and consistency of change. Each score ranges from a maximum of +30 to a minimum of -30 for each period.SUMMARY TABLES - The tables below give the top and bottom ten companies by Results Score and the ten 'Most Optimistic' and ten 'Most Pessimistic companies based on the difference between their Results Scores and Revision Scores. RESULTS SCORE TOP 10<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/232/original/2018-08-21_11-07-40.png?1534817272" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61232"></figure>RESULTS SCORE BOTTOM 10<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/247/original/2018-08-21_11-48-00.png?1534819694" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61247"></figure>MOST OPTIMISTIC <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/341/original/2018-08-22_10-41-33.png?1534902426" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61341"></figure>MOST PESSIMISTIC<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/342/original/2018-08-22_10-44-42.png?1534902469" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61342"></figure><div class="content-caption">All tables &gt; Source: Japan Analytics</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">
Legend: ▲ and ▼ arrows indicate Score changes in the top and bottom ten per cent, respectively. The Relative Price Score measures the difference between the current relative price and the mean absolute deviation of relative prices since listing which allows for a comparison of all companies on the same absolute scale. We consider differences in the top or bottom percentiles of historical observations to be 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' and these states mark them "•" and "+", respectively.  Valuation 'QUADrants' group companies into the top and bottom 20% of TTM PER and PBR ranges and categorise companies that are outliers in both into four quadrants: "FP" = Fully Priced, "SP" = Speculative, "MT" = Mature and "DV" = Deep Value. 'NE' represents negative TTM Net Income. Forecasts older than 180 days are excluded. The Forecast Accuracy Score ('FAS') is a measure of a company’s forecast accuracy-very time and is derived from the cumulative deviations of the Revenue and Operating Income forecasts from the year-end results. 100 is a perfect score; there is no minimum score. The fewer and the more accurate the forecasts, the higher the score.  A score of over 70 indicates that the current forecast is likely to be achieved. Where there is insufficient data, or if the company has not made any forecasts in the last five years, the column entry will be blank. We would be cautious reading too much into the forecasts of the companies with low Forecast Accuracy.</div>LONG AND SHORT PORTFOLIOS - Also, we provide below long and shorts portfolios of companies where we see a significant divergence between the business performance and current share prices.

INTRODUCTION - The second, and final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review for Summer 2018 will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters among larger and middle capitalisation companies in Japan based on their most recent quarterly results and forecasts. The data series covers over 160,000 quarterly results and 120,000 initial forecasts or forecasts revisions. The scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measure for each metric the rate, degree and consistency of change. Each score ranges from a maximum of +30 to a minimum of -30 for each period.SUMMARY TABLES - The tables below give the top and bottom ten companies by Results Score and the ten 'Most Optimistic' and ten 'Most Pessimistic companies based on the difference between their Results Scores and Revision Scores. RESULTS SCORE TOP 10RESULTS SCORE BOTTOM 10MOST OPTIMISTIC MOST PESSIMISTICAll tables &gt; Source: Japan Analytics
Legend: ▲ and ▼ arrows indicate Score changes in the top and bottom ten per cent, respectively. The Relative Price Score measures the difference between the current relative price and the mean absolute deviation of relative prices since listing which allows for a comparison of all companies on the same absolute scale. We consider differences in the top or bottom percentiles of historical observations to be 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' and these states mark them "•" and "+", respectively.  Valuation 'QUADrants' group companies into the top and bottom 20% of TTM PER and PBR ranges and categorise companies that are outliers in both into four quadrants: "FP" = Fully Priced, "SP" = Speculative, "MT" = Mature and "DV" = Deep Value. 'NE' represents negative TTM Net Income. Forecasts older than 180 days are excluded. The Forecast Accuracy Score ('FAS') is a measure of a company’s forecast accuracy-very time and is derived from the cumulative deviations of the Revenue and Operating Income forecasts from the year-end results. 100 is a perfect score; there is no minimum score. The fewer and the more accurate the forecasts, the higher the score.  A score of over 70 indicates that the current forecast is likely to be achieved. Where there is insufficient data, or if the company has not made any forecasts in the last five years, the column entry will be blank. We would be cautious reading too much into the forecasts of the companies with low Forecast Accuracy.LONG AND SHORT PORTFOLIOS - Also, we provide below long and shorts portfolios of companies where we see a significant divergence between the business performance and current share prices.

Japan: Scoring Results & Revisions Summer 2018 - Top and Bottom Companies + Long & Short Portfolios

Japan

CALBEE, Inc. manufactures a wide range of snack foods using potato, wheat, and corn as a main ingredient. The company also manufactures bakery products and cereals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Calbee Inc (2229 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 6: Currency Risk

WHAT CURRENCY RISK? - It seems rather old-fashioned to raise the topic of currency risk in relation to potential stressors on Japanese listed...

Campbell Gunn

Calbee Inc: Falling Average Price Per Unit Causes Concern Among Investors

1H and 9MFY2019 earnings misses forced Calbee to revise its FY2019 estimates Increased costs, slower progress in international markets and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Seven Eleven, Familymart and Lawson Find New Growth Strategies in Tighter Market

The following is an in-depth review of the big three Japanese convenience store (CVS) players, Seven Eleven (Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)),...

Michael Causton

Japan: Scoring Results & Revisions Summer 2018 - Top and Bottom Companies + Long & Short Portfolios

INTRODUCTION - The second, and final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review for Summer 2018 will look at the leading and lagging...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 6: Currency Risk

WHAT CURRENCY RISK? - It seems rather old-fashioned to raise the topic of currency risk in relation to potential stressors on Japanese listed...

Campbell Gunn

Calbee Inc: Falling Average Price Per Unit Causes Concern Among Investors

1H and 9MFY2019 earnings misses forced Calbee to revise its FY2019 estimates Increased costs, slower progress in international markets and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Seven Eleven, Familymart and Lawson Find New Growth Strategies in Tighter Market

The following is an in-depth review of the big three Japanese convenience store (CVS) players, Seven Eleven (Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)),...

Michael Causton

Japan: Scoring Results & Revisions Summer 2018 - Top and Bottom Companies + Long & Short Portfolios

INTRODUCTION - The second, and final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review for Summer 2018 will look at the leading and lagging...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth