Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

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Calumet Specialty Products Par / Equity Bottom-Up

<div><ul><li>Montana Renewables is mid-turnaround—and when complete, SAF will account for roughly half of all output, already pre-contracted.</li><li>That inflection point is building toward a potential strategic partner deal and a possible spin-out of the platform.</li><li>What are the specific signposts to these moves and what does it mean for CLMT investors?</li></ul></div>

Montana Renewables is mid-turnaround—and when complete, SAF will account for roughly half of all output, already pre-contracted.That inflection point is building toward a potential strategic partner deal and a possible spin-out of the platform.What are the specific signposts to these moves and what does it mean for CLMT investors?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><ul><li>The liquid renewable fuels sector has entered 2H26 in the strongest position it has occupied in years. </li><li>Margins across renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and low-carbon ethanol are running near multi-year highs, balance sheets are healthier, and carbon credit revenue is maturing into a durable earnings stream that stands apart from physical fuel.</li><li>In this report, we walk through the five most resounding themes from companies’ interim results and recent WTR events, illustrated with company-level evidence and near-term catalysts with our thoughts on what we’re watching in the coming weeks for investors to follow.</li></ul></div>

The liquid renewable fuels sector has entered 2H26 in the strongest position it has occupied in years. Margins across renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and low-carbon ethanol are running near multi-year highs, balance sheets are healthier, and carbon credit revenue is maturing into a durable earnings stream that stands apart from physical fuel.In this report, we walk through the five most resounding themes from companies’ interim results and recent WTR events, illustrated with company-level evidence and near-term catalysts with our thoughts on what we’re watching in the coming weeks for investors to follow.

WTR Circular Carbon Focus Report : Five Key Themes Driving Liquid Renewable Fuels

<div><ul><li>The Circular Carbon and Environmental Solutions sector offers investors a structural, multi-decade opportunity set.</li><li>This is driven by tightening clean fuel mandates, domestic energy and resource security priorities, and mandatory environmental remediation.</li><li>After a 2024–25 period defined by oversupply, policy uncertainty, and capital discipline, the industry has surfaced in 2026 with a structurally improved setup. </li></ul></div>

The Circular Carbon and Environmental Solutions sector offers investors a structural, multi-decade opportunity set.This is driven by tightening clean fuel mandates, domestic energy and resource security priorities, and mandatory environmental remediation.After a 2024–25 period defined by oversupply, policy uncertainty, and capital discipline, the industry has surfaced in 2026 with a structurally improved setup. 

Primer: Energy Transition : Circular Carbon and Environmental Solutions - 17 June 2026

<div><ul><li>The US Energy Department signaled that the first five to 10 new nuclear reactors are likely to receive federal loans, reinforcing plans for 10 large reactors to start construction by 2030.</li><li>New data showed EV fastcharging networks are stabilizing, with higher reliability, balanced utilization, and prices holding near $0.53/kWh.</li><li>The DOE confirmed continued support for major carbonremoval hubs and reported that Graphite One’s Alaska graphite project remains on track for a September 2026 permitting decision, bolstering the domestic batterymineral supply chain</li></ul></div>

The US Energy Department signaled that the first five to 10 new nuclear reactors are likely to receive federal loans, reinforcing plans for 10 large reactors to start construction by 2030.New data showed EV fastcharging networks are stabilizing, with higher reliability, balanced utilization, and prices holding near $0.53/kWh.The DOE confirmed continued support for major carbonremoval hubs and reported that Graphite One’s Alaska graphite project remains on track for a September 2026 permitting decision, bolstering the domestic batterymineral supply chain

Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Focus on SAF Leaders - AGIG, CLMT, LODE, and SAFX

<ul><li>The alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) production pathway for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has the best potential to be a long-term scalable solution for decarbonizing the aviation industry.</li><li>Recent news that Airbus has delayed its hydrogen-powered aircraft initiative by up to a decade (Wall Street Journal) provides evidence that at least one leading alternative to SAF is losing ground.</li><li>Airbus has not changed its commitment to producing all aircraft capable of flying with up to 100% SAF by 2030. </li></ul>

The alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) production pathway for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has the best potential to be a long-term scalable solution for decarbonizing the aviation industry.Recent news that Airbus has delayed its hydrogen-powered aircraft initiative by up to a decade (Wall Street Journal) provides evidence that at least one leading alternative to SAF is losing ground.Airbus has not changed its commitment to producing all aircraft capable of flying with up to 100% SAF by 2030. 

Airbus Hydrogen Delay Broadens the Runway for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

United States

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. produces specialty hydrocarbon products for domestic and international customers.  The Company processes crude oil into a variety of customized lubricating oils, solvents, and waxes.  Calumet also processes crude oil into a variety of fuel and fuel-related products, including unleaded gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel.

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Calumet Specialty Products Par (CLMT US)

CLMT: WTR Symposium Series Podcast Recap

Montana Renewables is mid-turnaround—and when complete, SAF will account for roughly half of all output, already pre-contracted.

Water Tower Research

WTR Circular Carbon Focus Report : Five Key Themes Driving Liquid Renewable Fuels

Margins across renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and low-carbon ethanol are running near multi-year highs, balance...

Water Tower Research

Primer: Energy Transition : Circular Carbon and Environmental Solutions - 17 June 2026

After a 2024–25 period defined by oversupply, policy uncertainty, and capital discipline, the industry has surfaced in 2026 with a structurally...

Water Tower Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Focus on SAF Leaders - AGIG, CLMT, LODE, and SAFX

The US Energy Department signaled that the first five to 10 new nuclear reactors are likely to receive federal loans, reinforcing plans for 10...

Water Tower Research

Airbus Hydrogen Delay Broadens the Runway for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

The alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) production pathway for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has the best potential to be a long-term scalable solution for...

Water Tower Research

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