Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Uranium Price has fallen 7% over the past two months</li>
<li>Actively looking for uranium short positions</li>
<li>Provide summarised watch list</li>
<li>Wisdom from Samuel Longhorne Clemens</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27844" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17078" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17078:1">Berkeley Energy (BKY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25364" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25364:1">Cameco Corp (CCO CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27734" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27734:1">Kazatomprom Natsionalnaya At (KZAP KZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28004" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28004:1">Jangada Mines PLC (JAN LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28005" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28005:1">Europa Metals Ltd (EUZ LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10708" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10708:1">Buxton Resources (BUX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2564" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2564:1">Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18292" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18292:1">Myanmar Metals (MYL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13112" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13112:1">Archer Exploration (AXE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15927" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15927:1">Canyon Resources (CAY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4293" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4293:1">Catalyst Metals (CYL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14712" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1">Core Exploration (CXO AU)</a>, Exore Resources (ASX: ERX), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20213" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20213:1">Stavely Minerals (SVY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28007" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28007:1">Horizonte Minerals PLC (HZM LN)</a>, Bellevue Gold (ASX: BGL), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14443" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14443:1">Allegiance Coal (AHQ AU)</a>, First Au (ASX: FAU), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3189" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3189:1">Base Resources (BSE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19210" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19210:1">Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU)</a>  </li>
</ul>


Uranium Price has fallen 7% over the past two months
Actively looking for uranium short positions
Provide summarised watch list
Wisdom from Samuel Longhorne Clemens

Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN), Berkeley Energy (BKY AU), Cameco Corp (CCO CN), Kazatomprom Natsionalnaya At (KZAP KZ), Jangada Mines PLC (JAN LN), Europa Metals Ltd (EUZ LN), Buxton Resources (BUX AU), Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU), Myanmar Metals (MYL AU), Archer Exploration (AXE AU), Canyon Resources (CAY AU), Catalyst Metals (CYL AU), Core Exploration (CXO AU), Exore Resources (ASX: ERX), Stavely Minerals (SVY AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Horizonte Minerals PLC (HZM LN), Bellevue Gold (ASX: BGL), Allegiance Coal (AHQ AU), First Au (ASX: FAU), Base Resources (BSE AU), Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU)  


New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 22/03/19)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27844" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN)</a> is a pure play on the uranium price</li>
<li>Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 &amp; L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8
</li>
<li>Share price trading at ~2% discount to NPV</li>
<li>Despite recent production cuts, primary &amp; secondary supplies cover world demand</li>
<li>Est. surplus ~500ktU, representing six years of global primary production</li>
<li>Global nuclear generation peaked in 2006</li>
<li>Forecast world uranium demand to decline between 25% and 40% by 2050</li>
<li>
1-year Target Price £1.98-2.02 ps NPV4% assuming $24/lb U3O8
</li>
<li>
3-year Target Price £1.57-1.77 ps NPV4% assuming $21/lb U3O</li>
</ul>



Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN) is a pure play on the uranium price
Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 &amp; L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8

Share price trading at ~2% discount to NPV
Despite recent production cuts, primary &amp; secondary supplies cover world demand
Est. surplus ~500ktU, representing six years of global primary production
Global nuclear generation peaked in 2006
Forecast world uranium demand to decline between 25% and 40% by 2050

1-year Target Price £1.98-2.02 ps NPV4% assuming $24/lb U3O8


3-year Target Price £1.57-1.77 ps NPV4% assuming $21/lb U3O


Yellow Cake (YCA) - Great Idea, Wrong Time!

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

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Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

The Best Ideas list is a compilation of stock ideas sourced from Morningstar’s global equity research team. With more than 100 analysts covering nearly 1,500 companies, we’re able to provide a wide variety of what we believe are attractively priced securities looking across sectors, industries, and geographies. Best Ideas are nominated by analysts and approved by managers in addition to the normal due diligence processes that precede our published research and ratings.The list may include a broad mix of quality and risk characteristics to meet varying investor needs, including no-, narrow-, and wide-moat companies as well as the full spectrum of uncertainty ratings from low to very high. Most or all of the highlighted stocks will be trading at a discount to our estimate of intrinsic value, indicating improved odds of capital appreciation.

The Best Ideas list is a compilation of stock ideas sourced from Morningstar’s global equity research team. With more than 100 analysts covering nearly 1,500 companies, we’re able to provide a wide variety of what we believe are attractively priced securities looking across sectors, industries, and geographies. Best Ideas are nominated by analysts and approved by managers in addition to the normal due diligence processes that precede our published research and ratings.The list may include a broad mix of quality and risk characteristics to meet varying investor needs, including no-, narrow-, and wide-moat companies as well as the full spectrum of uncertainty ratings from low to very high. Most or all of the highlighted stocks will be trading at a discount to our estimate of intrinsic value, indicating improved odds of capital appreciation.

Canada

Cameco Corporation explores, develops, mines, refines, converts, and fabricates uranium. The Company offers uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors. Cameco operates worldwide.

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Cameco Corp (CCJ US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight...

Vermilion Research

New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 22/03/19)

Uranium Price has fallen 7% over the past two months Actively looking for uranium short positions Provide summarised watch list Wisdom from Samuel...

Boost Research

Yellow Cake (YCA) - Great Idea, Wrong Time!

Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN) is a pure play on the uranium price Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 & L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8 Share price trading...

Boost Research

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

Best Ideas List for January 2019

The Best Ideas list is a compilation of stock ideas sourced from Morningstar’s global equity research team. With more than 100 analysts covering...

Morningstar, Inc.

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