Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Two pair trade opportunities in the Indian financial sector persist, with price ratios exceeding two standard deviations from their historical means.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlight: Two pair trade opportunities in the Indian financial sector persist, with price ratios exceeding two standard deviations from their historical means.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Financial Pair Trades

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)</a> reached all-time highs on 26 September 2024 but have since declined.</li>
<li>Most stocks in the Bank Index have fallen below their 200 and 50 day moving average,. Volatilities have gone up, but trade cheap when compared to historical levels.</li>
<li>Opportunities present themselves either in stocks that stayed resilient during the downturn (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/federal-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11784:1" rel="noopener">Federal Bank (FB IN)),</a>or fell and gained in implied volatility. A long-short strategy might also be considered.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY) reached all-time highs on 26 September 2024 but have since declined.
Most stocks in the Bank Index have fallen below their 200 and 50 day moving average,. Volatilities have gone up, but trade cheap when compared to historical levels.
Opportunities present themselves either in stocks that stayed resilient during the downturn (Federal Bank (FB IN)),or fell and gained in implied volatility. A long-short strategy might also be considered.


EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There will be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are 27 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Some stocks will have passive flows from other index trackers at the same time while others are potential adds/close adds to global indices over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


There will be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are 27 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
Some stocks will have passive flows from other index trackers at the same time while others are potential adds/close adds to global indices over the next couple of months.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18110:1" rel="noopener">Indian Bank (INBK IN)'s </a>management has aggressively revised its full-year GNPA guidance down to below 2% from previous targets, driven by a best-in-class NNPA ratio of 0.16% in Q2 FY26.</li>
<li>The sharp reduction in credit costs, management's confident guidance is amplifying earnings, driving a high RoE of nearly 20%, and attracting substantial, yet still value-seeking, DII flows.</li>
<li>With asset quality structurally de-risked and the core business growing robustly through high-yielding RAM segments, Indian Bank presents a compelling re-rating candidate.</li>
</ul>



Indian Bank (INBK IN)'s management has aggressively revised its full-year GNPA guidance down to below 2% from previous targets, driven by a best-in-class NNPA ratio of 0.16% in Q2 FY26.
The sharp reduction in credit costs, management's confident guidance is amplifying earnings, driving a high RoE of nearly 20%, and attracting substantial, yet still value-seeking, DII flows.
With asset quality structurally de-risked and the core business growing robustly through high-yielding RAM segments, Indian Bank presents a compelling re-rating candidate.


Indian Bank: The Unrecognized Turnaround Story in PSU Banking

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (8 Dec)

India

Canara Bank Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities.

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Canara Bank (CBK IN)

Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Financial Pair Trades

A collection of relative value opportunities uncovered by a mean-reversion methodology, offering unique insights for potential gains in the Indian...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

The NSE Nifty Bank Index hit a record high in September 2024 but has since dropped. Option opportunities are found in resilient or volatile bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

There are 19 changes for the index in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are...

Brian Freitas

Indian Bank: The Unrecognized Turnaround Story in PSU Banking

Indian Bank's management revises full-year GNPA guidance below 2%, driving high RoE and attracting value-seeking DII flows, making it a compelling...

Nimish Maheshwari

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (8 Dec)

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Financial Pair Trades

A collection of relative value opportunities uncovered by a mean-reversion methodology, offering unique insights for potential gains in the Indian...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

The NSE Nifty Bank Index hit a record high in September 2024 but has since dropped. Option opportunities are found in resilient or volatile bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

There are 19 changes for the index in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are...

Brian Freitas

Indian Bank: The Unrecognized Turnaround Story in PSU Banking

​Indian Bank's management revises full-year GNPA guidance below 2%, driving high RoE and attracting value-seeking DII flows, making it a compelling...

Nimish Maheshwari

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (8 Dec)

​Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Indian Bank's management revises full-year GNPA guidance below 2%, driving high RoE and attracting value-seeking DII flows, making it a compelling...

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.