Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BHP launched a bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals (OZL AU)</a>. OZ has rejected it as being too low. BHP said the Offer provides certainty of funding growth. They are both right</li>
<li>This Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:112:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK)</a> is probably sufficient to get up. It has been declared final for that reason. Optically $6/share was a more reasonable level.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> announced another ¥100bn buyback over three years. However, the buyback is too small to pay back the Kim family inheritance tax obligations. </li>
</ul>


BHP launched a bid for OZ Minerals (OZL AU). OZ has rejected it as being too low. BHP said the Offer provides certainty of funding growth. They are both right
This Offer price for Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK) is probably sufficient to get up. It has been declared final for that reason. Optically $6/share was a more reasonable level.

Nexon (3659 JP) announced another ¥100bn buyback over three years. However, the buyback is too small to pay back the Kim family inheritance tax obligations. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Softbank, OZ Minerals, Lifestyle, Nexon, Magic Empire, Swire Pacific

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.


U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> has just started its 17th buyback in 15 years. Like the 16 before, this one is for ¥50bn. </li>
<li>The patterns/dynamics of the canon buybacks in the past are remarkable when compared to buybacks of other companies. </li>
<li>There are outperformance and under-performance patterns vs Peers, and it is worth taking note if you have a position to trade. </li>
</ul>



Canon Inc (7751 JP) has just started its 17th buyback in 15 years. Like the 16 before, this one is for ¥50bn. 
The patterns/dynamics of the canon buybacks in the past are remarkable when compared to buybacks of other companies. 
There are outperformance and under-performance patterns vs Peers, and it is worth taking note if you have a position to trade. 


Looking at Canon Buyback Dynamics History - Patterns Vs Peers Gives Execution Hints

<ul>
<li>Participate in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sjm-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:805:1" rel="noopener">SJM Holdings (880 HK)</a>'s Excess Application Auction, though one would need to bid for a fantastically large quantity of shares to get anything, because everyone else will</li>
<li>At a 11% gross spread to terms, and potential 4Q22 completion, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili(1230 HK)</a> IS A CLEAR BUY. The world is a bit risk averse and it shows up in spreads.</li>
<li>The 'headcount test' for Cayman-incorporated companies failed to move with the times and address the fact that the majority of shares of Hong Kong-listed companies were held by HKSCC Nominees.</li>
</ul>


Participate in SJM Holdings (880 HK)'s Excess Application Auction, though one would need to bid for a fantastically large quantity of shares to get anything, because everyone else will
At a 11% gross spread to terms, and potential 4Q22 completion, Yashili(1230 HK) IS A CLEAR BUY. The world is a bit risk averse and it shows up in spreads.
The 'headcount test' for Cayman-incorporated companies failed to move with the times and address the fact that the majority of shares of Hong Kong-listed companies were held by HKSCC Nominees.


Last Week In Event SPACE: SJM, Yashili, Cayman Headcount, ResApp, Honda Tsushin Kogyo

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> reported Q2 earnings early last week. Shares dropped 4% the next day but closed down only 1%. Now they are above the prior close. </li>
<li>They biked the dividend nicely (was ¥45/share last year, guided to ¥50 this year, but made ¥60/share instead. </li>
<li>And now they have announced another ¥50bn buyback on top of the one announced in May. Fourth time in 14 years a second tranche is announced in one year. </li>
</ul>



Canon Inc (7751 JP) reported Q2 earnings early last week. Shares dropped 4% the next day but closed down only 1%. Now they are above the prior close. 
They biked the dividend nicely (was ¥45/share last year, guided to ¥50 this year, but made ¥60/share instead. 
And now they have announced another ¥50bn buyback on top of the one announced in May. Fourth time in 14 years a second tranche is announced in one year. 


Canon (7751) - Second Buyback This Year - Last Happened in 2014

Japan

Canon Inc. is a professional and consumer imaging solutions company and patent-holder of digital imaging technologies. The Company's products include networked multifunction devices, digital and analog copiers, computer peripherals, facsimile machines, image filing systems, camcorders, cameras and lenses, semiconductor, and broadcast and medical equipment.

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Canon Inc (7751 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Softbank, OZ Minerals, Lifestyle, Nexon, Magic Empire, Swire Pacific

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

This is now the third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes with bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals,...

Vermilion Research

Looking at Canon Buyback Dynamics History - Patterns Vs Peers Gives Execution Hints

Canon has done 6 buybacks in the last 15 years. They all have particular terms and patterns in common and that can help guide execution.

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: SJM, Yashili, Cayman Headcount, ResApp, Honda Tsushin Kogyo

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Canon (7751) - Second Buyback This Year - Last Happened in 2014

Canon last week announced OK Q2 earnings, and higher FY22 guidance, raising it for the second quarter in a row. It also hiked its div guidance. Now...

Travis Lundy

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