Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weekly balance sheets at US banks show a strong economy, and likely far better 3Q25 results for banks</li>
<li>Credit growth continues to accelerate, now at 4.67% YoY, weekly CP data is very strong, at +26% YoY</li>
<li>Credit metrics appear very strong, with LLR growing at almost nothing, at 1.36% YoY and less than 2% YoY for all weeks so far in this quarter</li>
</ul>


Weekly balance sheets at US banks show a strong economy, and likely far better 3Q25 results for banks
Credit growth continues to accelerate, now at 4.67% YoY, weekly CP data is very strong, at +26% YoY
Credit metrics appear very strong, with LLR growing at almost nothing, at 1.36% YoY and less than 2% YoY for all weeks so far in this quarter


US Banks - Weekly Loans Accelerate to 4.67% YoY, LLR at Only +1.36% YoY, CP +26% YoY

<ul>
<li>SYF quarterly credit metrics is a sign of well improving consumer credit metrics</li>
<li>Credit costs are moving lower, in all quarters from June 2024 to June 2025</li>
<li>Total LLR coverage of loans remains high, NCO are shrinking: all is +ve</li>
</ul>


SYF quarterly credit metrics is a sign of well improving consumer credit metrics
Credit costs are moving lower, in all quarters from June 2024 to June 2025
Total LLR coverage of loans remains high, NCO are shrinking: all is +ve


Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

<ul>
<li>Large US banks show very strong loan acceleration weekly, not only due to small banks and their base effect</li>
<li>Credit metrics appear exceptional with almost no LLR growth at US banks, which is different to total banks system</li>
<li>Different to all banks and to smaller banks, US Large banks show still negative YoY growth in CRE loans - but with a lessor narrowing recently. </li>
</ul>


Large US banks show very strong loan acceleration weekly, not only due to small banks and their base effect
Credit metrics appear exceptional with almost no LLR growth at US banks, which is different to total banks system
Different to all banks and to smaller banks, US Large banks show still negative YoY growth in CRE loans - but with a lessor narrowing recently. 


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets for Large Banks, Highly Positive with Only 0.58% YoY LLR

<ul>
<li>We have new weekly data of US banks from Fed H8 data series, which is a strong showing</li>
<li>Growth rates keep rising, now up for 7 weeks consecutively, for loans YoY % ch</li>
<li>US banks added USD76.8bn during first 7 weeks of 3Q25 and including the last week of 2Q25. Same figures last year was down USD1.4bn</li>
</ul>


We have new weekly data of US banks from Fed H8 data series, which is a strong showing
Growth rates keep rising, now up for 7 weeks consecutively, for loans YoY % ch
US banks added USD76.8bn during first 7 weeks of 3Q25 and including the last week of 2Q25. Same figures last year was down USD1.4bn


US Banks - Accelerating Weekly YoY Loan Growth at +$77bn into 3Q25 Vs Minus $1bn into 3Q24

<ul>
<li>US banks' high-frequency data (HFD) released from the Fed shows the 6th week in a row of higher than 4% YoY loan growth (and highest yet at 4.43%)</li>
<li>The change in loans during the first 6 weeks of 3Q25 is +USD85bn compared with +USD1bn in the same period last year</li>
<li>C&amp;I loan growth has seen strong delta over past 52 weeks and LLR growth remains subdued, suggesting good credit metrics</li>
</ul>


US banks' high-frequency data (HFD) released from the Fed shows the 6th week in a row of higher than 4% YoY loan growth (and highest yet at 4.43%)
The change in loans during the first 6 weeks of 3Q25 is +USD85bn compared with +USD1bn in the same period last year
C&amp;I loan growth has seen strong delta over past 52 weeks and LLR growth remains subdued, suggesting good credit metrics


US Banks - At 6 Weeks into 3Q25, +USD85bn Loans, Vs +USD1bn at 6 Weeks into 2Q24

United States

Capital One Financial Corporation is a diversified bank. The Bank, through its subsidiaries, offers a broad spectrum of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial clients both domestically and internationally.  Capital One has bank locations in Connecticut, Louisiana, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.

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Capital One Financial (COF US)

US Banks - Weekly Loans Accelerate to 4.67% YoY, LLR at Only +1.36% YoY, CP +26% YoY

Weekly balance sheets for US banks show accelerating 4.67% loan growth, and weekly CP data is very strong at +26% YoY. Credit metrics appear...

Daniel Tabbush

Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

SYF shows a narrowing of credit costs from 2Q24 to 2Q25, and it shows high LLR/loans over this time still, with declining net charge-offs. Suggests...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets for Large Banks, Highly Positive with Only 0.58% YoY LLR

Weekly HFD at large US banks is highly positive, showing almost no growth in LLR, and accelerating growth in loans. CRE loan growth remains negative.

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Accelerating Weekly YoY Loan Growth at +$77bn into 3Q25 Vs Minus $1bn into 3Q24

Fed released its weekly update of US bank balance sheets, with accelerating loan growth. Credit costs appear to be still benign, from low LLR growth.

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - At 6 Weeks into 3Q25, +USD85bn Loans, Vs +USD1bn at 6 Weeks into 2Q24

US banks' HFD shows strong and accelerating loan growth. The change in loans during the 6 weeks into 3Q25 is $85bn vs $1bn in 3Q24. C&I is strong,...

Daniel Tabbush

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