Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we are now seeing meaningful improvement within emerging markets (EEM-US) as the Hang Seng index displays bullish price and relative strength (RS) reversals.</li>
<li>Brent and WTI crude oil are hitting 8-year highs, base metals are bullishly inflecting, and critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes.</li>
<li>Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include Materials and Industrials/Manufacturing -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we are now seeing meaningful improvement within emerging markets (EEM-US) as the Hang Seng index displays bullish price and relative strength (RS) reversals.
Brent and WTI crude oil are hitting 8-year highs, base metals are bullishly inflecting, and critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes.
Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include Materials and Industrials/Manufacturing -- add exposure.


Sticking With Value; Buying Materials & Industrials

In this report we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to copper miners at current levels, highlighting the following actionable names: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX-US), Southern Copper (SCCO-US), OZ Minerals (OZL-AU), Antofagasta plc (ANTO-GB), KAZ Minerals (KAZ-GB), Aurubis AG (NDA-DE), Grupo Mexico (GMEXICOB-MX), Ivanhoe Mines (IVN-CA), First Quantum Minerals (FM-CA), Lundin Mining (LUN-CA), Hudbay Minerals (HBM-CA), Capstone Mining (CS-CA), Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ-US, TRQ-CA), Taseko Mines (TGB-US, TKO-CA), and MMG Ltd. (1208-HK).

In this report we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to copper miners at current levels, highlighting the following actionable names: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX-US), Southern Copper (SCCO-US), OZ Minerals (OZL-AU), Antofagasta plc (ANTO-GB), KAZ Minerals (KAZ-GB), Aurubis AG (NDA-DE), Grupo Mexico (GMEXICOB-MX), Ivanhoe Mines (IVN-CA), First Quantum Minerals (FM-CA), Lundin Mining (LUN-CA), Hudbay Minerals (HBM-CA), Capstone Mining (CS-CA), Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ-US, TRQ-CA), Taseko Mines (TGB-US, TKO-CA), and MMG Ltd. (1208-HK).

Copper Miners Breaking Out Around The Globe -- Buy

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In our prior insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-mine-by-mine-supply-challenges-for-everyone-update-as-copper-is-set-to-break-12k-usd-ton" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we highlighted grave global copper supply issues.</a>The latest copper supply casualty is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capstone-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25359:1" rel="noopener">Capstone Copper (CS CN)</a> with a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-02/capstone-chile-miners-strike-as-record-copper-lifts-expectations" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strike at the Mantoverde mine Chile</a>.</li>
<li>Shortly after copper broke the 12k USD/ton mark, we followed it up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-breaks-12k-usd-ton-move-to-13k-usd-ton-by-early-next-year" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:215539" rel="noopener">Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year</a> </li>
<li>Copper is now at 12.5k USD/ton, and we believe there is an alot of momentum building in the commodity, and breaking 13k USD/ton will likely happen soon.</li>
</ul>


In our prior insight, we highlighted grave global copper supply issues.The latest copper supply casualty is Capstone Copper (CS CN) with a strike at the Mantoverde mine Chile.
Shortly after copper broke the 12k USD/ton mark, we followed it up with Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year 
Copper is now at 12.5k USD/ton, and we believe there is an alot of momentum building in the commodity, and breaking 13k USD/ton will likely happen soon.


Copper: Steady Path to 13k USD/Ton, With Capstone (CS CN) Being The Latest Supply Casualty

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ)</a>, an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amman-mineral-internasional-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:103755" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range of IDR1,650-1,775 per share is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ), an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.
We previously discussed the IPO in Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range of IDR1,650-1,775 per share is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.


Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>’s A$28.25 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$27.37-30.47. </li>
<li>Copper prices and peers’ share prices have risen since the deal announcement. The IFA address perky copper prices by using reasonable long-term copper prices to value the assets.</li>
<li>This is done with no hint of a competing bid. At last close price and for the 2 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.9% and 6.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The IE considers BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)’s A$28.25 offer for OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$27.37-30.47. 
Copper prices and peers’ share prices have risen since the deal announcement. The IFA address perky copper prices by using reasonable long-term copper prices to value the assets.
This is done with no hint of a competing bid. At last close price and for the 2 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.9% and 6.1%, respectively.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April

Canada

Capstone Copper Corp. operates as a mining company. The Company focuses on exploration and production of copper and silver metals. Capstone Copper offers its services in Canada, the United States, Mexico, and Chile.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Capstone Copper (CS CN)

Sticking With Value; Buying Materials & Industrials

Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include...

Vermilion Research

Copper Miners Breaking Out Around The Globe -- Buy

In this report we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to copper miners at current levels, highlighting the following...

Vermilion Research

Copper: Steady Path to 13k USD/Ton, With Capstone (CS CN) Being The Latest Supply Casualty

A strike at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine (CS CN) has curtailed roughly 70% of output, adding to supply risk as copper prices continue to trend...

Sameer Taneja

Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights

Amman has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April

Despite perky copper prices, this is a done deal with no hint of a competing bid. At the last close price and for the 2 May payment, the annualised...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)