Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to gain, with the support at 1,660/1,652 points and the resistance at 1,680/1,690 points.</li><li>Technically, the index is likely to rebound after it was able to close above the support at 1,670 points and stayed above the 10-day moving average.</li><li>Tactically, investors are suggested to do trading buy in the short term at the aforementioned support, with the loss-stopping point at 1,652 points, focusing on laggard plays in the food, retail and ICT sectors that are at low risk of being sold for sector rotations.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to gain, with the support at 1,660/1,652 points and the resistance at 1,680/1,690 points.Technically, the index is likely to rebound after it was able to close above the support at 1,670 points and stayed above the 10-day moving average.Tactically, investors are suggested to do trading buy in the short term at the aforementioned support, with the loss-stopping point at 1,652 points, focusing on laggard plays in the food, retail and ICT sectors that are at low risk of being sold for sector rotations.

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>Earnings is expected to improve QoQ in 4Q22 and recover YoY in 2023 support by higher consumer purchasing power causing by adjustment of minimum daily wages, higher consumption from FIFA</li>
<li>Core business performance should be recover QoQ   Domestic sales (35% of total sales): Strong revenue growth momentum for domestic energy drinks to persist in 4Q22 and throughout 2023 supported </li>
<li>CLMV sales(30% of total sales)is expected to recover both YoY and QoQ in 4Q22 to Bt1.5bn or two-years average sales in CLMV,driven by a recovery in Cambodia sales after flood </li>
</ul>


Earnings is expected to improve QoQ in 4Q22 and recover YoY in 2023 support by higher consumer purchasing power causing by adjustment of minimum daily wages, higher consumption from FIFA
Core business performance should be recover QoQ   Domestic sales (35% of total sales): Strong revenue growth momentum for domestic energy drinks to persist in 4Q22 and throughout 2023 supported 
CLMV sales(30% of total sales)is expected to recover both YoY and QoQ in 4Q22 to Bt1.5bn or two-years average sales in CLMV,driven by a recovery in Cambodia sales after flood 


CBG : Key Positive Catalyst Should Depend on Sales Performance from Vietnam

<ul>
<li>Downgrade recommendation to HOLD from BUY with a lower target price of Bt105 (Previous TP: Bt120). Our new target price reflects 2023 earnings downward revision by 12% to factored</li>
<li>3Q22 earnings fell both YoY and QoQ  Its net profit came out at Bt475m (-21%YoY, -36%QoQ). After earnings revision,the 9M22 result accounted for 75% of full-year net profit in 2022.</li>
<li>Revenue remained solid at Bt4.7bn (+19%YoY, -11%QoQ) supported by 1) an increase in sales of Carabao dang energy drinks by 19%YoY in domestic market</li>
</ul>


Downgrade recommendation to HOLD from BUY with a lower target price of Bt105 (Previous TP: Bt120). Our new target price reflects 2023 earnings downward revision by 12% to factored
3Q22 earnings fell both YoY and QoQ  Its net profit came out at Bt475m (-21%YoY, -36%QoQ). After earnings revision,the 9M22 result accounted for 75% of full-year net profit in 2022.
Revenue remained solid at Bt4.7bn (+19%YoY, -11%QoQ) supported by 1) an increase in sales of Carabao dang energy drinks by 19%YoY in domestic market


CBG : Weak Margin Pressured on 3Q22 Results

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt120 (Previous TP: Bt125). We expect the company to report 3Q22 net profit at Bt615m (+2%YoY, -17%QoQ).</li>
<li>Expect weak CLMV sales to drag 3Q22 earnings   We expect 3Q22 net profit to be at Bt615m. Revenue in 3Q22 is expected at Bt4.7bn (+20%YoY, -10%QoQ)</li>
<li>Gross profit margin in 3Q22 is assumed to drop to 30.6% from 34.1% in 3Q21 and 30.8% in 2Q22. The YoY and QoQ</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt120 (Previous TP: Bt125). We expect the company to report 3Q22 net profit at Bt615m (+2%YoY, -17%QoQ).
Expect weak CLMV sales to drag 3Q22 earnings   We expect 3Q22 net profit to be at Bt615m. Revenue in 3Q22 is expected at Bt4.7bn (+20%YoY, -10%QoQ)
Gross profit margin in 3Q22 is assumed to drop to 30.6% from 34.1% in 3Q21 and 30.8% in 2Q22. The YoY and QoQ


CBG : Expect Weak CLMV Sales to Drag 3Q22 Earnings

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. Management targets its branded own products GPM in 2H22 should improve slightly to 38%-40% from 38% in 2Q22</li>
<li>Positive catalyst from 5-6 new products launch in 2022 2Q22 energy drinks sales in UK market surged to Bt46m(+45%YoY)driven by a launch of new flavor (Mango)in new packaging (PET bottle).</li>
<li>The positive news from last week analyst meeting is an introduction of “Kanzou X2”in August 2022,the premium energy drinks with health benefits(liver nourishment)at a retail price of Bt15 per bottle.</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. Management targets its branded own products GPM in 2H22 should improve slightly to 38%-40% from 38% in 2Q22
Positive catalyst from 5-6 new products launch in 2022 2Q22 energy drinks sales in UK market surged to Bt46m(+45%YoY)driven by a launch of new flavor (Mango)in new packaging (PET bottle).
The positive news from last week analyst meeting is an introduction of “Kanzou X2”in August 2022,the premium energy drinks with health benefits(liver nourishment)at a retail price of Bt15 per bottle.


Thailand

Carabao Group Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based holding company primarily investing in subsidiaries that produce, market, sell, and distribute energy drinks and other beverages both domestically and internationally. Their product range includes carbonated and non-carbonated energy drinks, vitamin C drinks, coffee products, and drinking water under brands like Carabao, Carabao Sport, and Woody C+ Lock. The company also manufactures and distributes packaging products such as bottles, glass products, and aluminum cans. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was established in 2001.

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Carabao Group (CBG TB)

Technical Analysis

The SET Index is expected to gain, with the support at 1,660/1,652 points and the resistance at 1,680/1,690 points. Technically, the index is...

Krungthai XSpring

CBG : Key Positive Catalyst Should Depend on Sales Performance from Vietnam

Earnings is expected to improve QoQ in 4Q22 and recover YoY in 2023 support by higher consumer purchasing power causing by adjustment of minimum...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CBG : Weak Margin Pressured on 3Q22 Results

Downgrade recommendation to HOLD from BUY with a lower target price of Bt105 (Previous TP: Bt120).Our new target price reflects 2023 earnings...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CBG : Expect Weak CLMV Sales to Drag 3Q22 Earnings

Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt120 (Previous TP: Bt125). We expect the company to report 3Q22 net profit at Bt615m...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CBG : Waiting for GPM Recovery

Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. Management targets its branded own products GPM in 2H22 should improve slightly...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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