Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. CBG’s 2Q22 net profit was at Bt742m (-23%YoY,+13%QoQ),the highest level in the past four-quarters, in-line with BB consensus estimated </li>
<li>2Q22 earnings hit four-quarter high GPM narrowing YoY and high base of revenue from Myanmar (-22%YoY) dragged 2Q22 earnings. The 1H22 result accounted for 46% of our 2022E.</li>
<li>The 2Q22 revenue rose to all-time-high of Bt5.2bn (+5%YoY, +10%QoQ), thanks to 1) a recovery in Cambodia sales (+7%YoY),2) an increase in sales of Carabao Dang energy drinks in Thailand</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. CBG’s 2Q22 net profit was at Bt742m (-23%YoY,+13%QoQ),the highest level in the past four-quarters, in-line with BB consensus estimated 
2Q22 earnings hit four-quarter high GPM narrowing YoY and high base of revenue from Myanmar (-22%YoY) dragged 2Q22 earnings. The 1H22 result accounted for 46% of our 2022E.
The 2Q22 revenue rose to all-time-high of Bt5.2bn (+5%YoY, +10%QoQ), thanks to 1) a recovery in Cambodia sales (+7%YoY),2) an increase in sales of Carabao Dang energy drinks in Thailand


CBG : 2Q22 Earnings Hit Four-Quarter High

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. We expect the company to report 2Q22 net profit at Bt859m, the highest level in the past four-quarter</li>
<li>Expect strong earnings recover QoQ in 2Q22 We expect CBG to post 2Q22 net profit of Bt859m (-11%YoY, +30%QoQ),driven by an all-time-high revenue at Bt5.7bn (+14%YoY,+19%QoQ) with expanded gross profit</li>
<li>Bright earnings outlook in 2H22 We expect the company’s earnings to improved YoY in 2H22 driven by solid sales in CLMVand China,a surged in energy drinks sales volume in Thailand</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. We expect the company to report 2Q22 net profit at Bt859m, the highest level in the past four-quarter
Expect strong earnings recover QoQ in 2Q22 We expect CBG to post 2Q22 net profit of Bt859m (-11%YoY, +30%QoQ),driven by an all-time-high revenue at Bt5.7bn (+14%YoY,+19%QoQ) with expanded gross profit
Bright earnings outlook in 2H22 We expect the company’s earnings to improved YoY in 2H22 driven by solid sales in CLMVand China,a surged in energy drinks sales volume in Thailand


CBG : Expect 2Q22 Earnings to Hit Four-Quarter High

<ul>
<li>The medium to long-term outlook looks promising,thanks to high demand for energy drinks across Asia-Pacific owing to trend of urbanization and rising disposable income. Meanwhile, 2H22 earnings are confirmed recovery </li>
<li>
<strong> More room to expand in Asia-Pacific</strong> Mordor Intelligence projected the Asia-Pacific energy drinks market value, which is the CBG key market focus to increase 8.46%CAGR in 2022-2027</li>
<li>China market (4% of total revenue in 2021) is one of the CBG’s key market given the largest size of energy drinks market in Asia-Pacific with plenty of opportunity </li>
</ul>


The medium to long-term outlook looks promising,thanks to high demand for energy drinks across Asia-Pacific owing to trend of urbanization and rising disposable income. Meanwhile, 2H22 earnings are confirmed recovery 

 More room to expand in Asia-Pacific Mordor Intelligence projected the Asia-Pacific energy drinks market value, which is the CBG key market focus to increase 8.46%CAGR in 2022-2027
China market (4% of total revenue in 2021) is one of the CBG’s key market given the largest size of energy drinks market in Asia-Pacific with plenty of opportunity 


<ul>
<li>Last week analyst meeting came out with a positive tone regarding2022-25 earnings outlook.We reiterate our BUY rating for CBG and roll over target price to Bt125 (Previous TP is Bt115)</li>
<li>We expect GPM to bottomed out in 1Q22 caused by 1) higher revenue contribution from branded own segment (higher than average blended GPM), 2) wholesale price adjustment by 1%-3%</li>
<li>We expect CBG to show a strong performance in 2022-25 supported by recovery sales in Cambodia, solid revenue in Myanmar, breaking into the Chinese market successfully, growth opportunities in Vietnam</li>
</ul>


Last week analyst meeting came out with a positive tone regarding2022-25 earnings outlook.We reiterate our BUY rating for CBG and roll over target price to Bt125 (Previous TP is Bt115)
We expect GPM to bottomed out in 1Q22 caused by 1) higher revenue contribution from branded own segment (higher than average blended GPM), 2) wholesale price adjustment by 1%-3%
We expect CBG to show a strong performance in 2022-25 supported by recovery sales in Cambodia, solid revenue in Myanmar, breaking into the Chinese market successfully, growth opportunities in Vietnam


<ul>
<li>We upgrade our recommendation for CBG from HOLD to BUY with a new target price of Bt115 (-9% from previous TP), derived from 35xPE’22E, the average of the Thai energy </li>
<li>We forecast 2022E earnings to recover to Bt3.3bn (+16%YoY) supported by (1) recovering sales in CLMV market, (2) Solid liquor’s distribution revenue growth, and (3) new product launches in Thailand.</li>
<li>Expect earnings to bounce back to roughly Bt800m in 2Q22,while we believe gross profit margin had already bottomed in 4Q21and expecting it to recover in 1Q22,supported by higher sales contribution </li>
</ul>


We upgrade our recommendation for CBG from HOLD to BUY with a new target price of Bt115 (-9% from previous TP), derived from 35xPE’22E, the average of the Thai energy 
We forecast 2022E earnings to recover to Bt3.3bn (+16%YoY) supported by (1) recovering sales in CLMV market, (2) Solid liquor’s distribution revenue growth, and (3) new product launches in Thailand.
Expect earnings to bounce back to roughly Bt800m in 2Q22,while we believe gross profit margin had already bottomed in 4Q21and expecting it to recover in 1Q22,supported by higher sales contribution 


CBG: Expect Earnings to Recover YoY Supported by New Product Launches

Thailand

Carabao Group Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based holding company primarily investing in subsidiaries that produce, market, sell, and distribute energy drinks and other beverages both domestically and internationally. Their product range includes carbonated and non-carbonated energy drinks, vitamin C drinks, coffee products, and drinking water under brands like Carabao, Carabao Sport, and Woody C+ Lock. The company also manufactures and distributes packaging products such as bottles, glass products, and aluminum cans. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was established in 2001.

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Carabao Group (CBG TB)

CBG : 2Q22 Earnings Hit Four-Quarter High

Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. CBG’s 2Q22 net profit was at Bt742m (-23%YoY, +13%QoQ), the highest level in the...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CBG : Expect 2Q22 Earnings to Hit Four-Quarter High

Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. We expect the company to report 2Q22 net profit at Bt859m, the highest level in...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CBG : Promising Growth Outlook

The medium to long-term outlook looks promising, thanks to high demand for energy drinks across Asia-Pacific owing to trend of urbanization and...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CBG: Time to Reload

Last week analyst meeting came out with a positive tone regarding 2022-25 earnings outlook. We reiterate our BUY rating for CBG and roll over...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CBG: Expect Earnings to Recover YoY Supported by New Product Launches

We upgrade our recommendation for CBG from HOLD to BUY with a new target price of Bt115 (-9% from previous TP), derived from 35xPE’22E, the average...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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