Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our breaking growth model uncovers slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance.</li>
<li>These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, time horizons of three to twelve months, higher valuations due to historically strong growth and are often “market darlings”.  </li>
<li>The short response, when growth breaks, is based on a downward reassessment of future growth potential frequently aided by multiple compression that accelerates the decline.</li>
</ul>


Our breaking growth model uncovers slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance.
These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, time horizons of three to twelve months, higher valuations due to historically strong growth and are often “market darlings”.  
The short response, when growth breaks, is based on a downward reassessment of future growth potential frequently aided by multiple compression that accelerates the decline.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Novotech Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novotech-health-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33411:1" rel="noopener">Novotech Holdings (NVT HK)</a> is a global contract research organisation (CRO). Novotech is the third-largest Asia-Pacific-based CRO and the largest biotech-specialist CRO in the Asia-Pacific region, both in terms of revenue in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. The controlling shareholder is TPG and the other shareholders include GIC, Kaiser Foundation Hospitals and Sequoia Capital. Novotech has started pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $0.5-1.0 billion, according to press reports.</p></div><div>
<div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/novotech-health-ipo-initiation-on-demand-science" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57198" rel="noopener">Novotech Health IPO Initiation: On-Demand Science</a>, we noted that, unlike other H-listed CRO peers, Novotech gives investors an avenue to gain exposure to the broader Asia-Pacific CRO industry. We concluded that Novotech’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. </p></div>
<div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/novotech-health-ipo-a-solid-start-to-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57255" rel="noopener">Novotech Health IPO: A Solid Start to 2021</a>, we examined the PHIP which discloses the 1Q21 results along with additional disclosures and recent developments. Overall, we maintained our view that the fundamentals look attractive. </p></div></div>
</div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Novotech's potential valuation range. </p></div></div></div>

Novotech Holdings (NVT HK) is a global contract research organisation (CRO). Novotech is the third-largest Asia-Pacific-based CRO and the largest biotech-specialist CRO in the Asia-Pacific region, both in terms of revenue in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. The controlling shareholder is TPG and the other shareholders include GIC, Kaiser Foundation Hospitals and Sequoia Capital. Novotech has started pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $0.5-1.0 billion, according to press reports.
In Novotech Health IPO Initiation: On-Demand Science, we noted that, unlike other H-listed CRO peers, Novotech gives investors an avenue to gain exposure to the broader Asia-Pacific CRO industry. We concluded that Novotech’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. 
In Novotech Health IPO: A Solid Start to 2021, we examined the PHIP which discloses the 1Q21 results along with additional disclosures and recent developments. Overall, we maintained our view that the fundamentals look attractive. 
In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Novotech's potential valuation range. 

Novotech Health IPO: Valuation First-Look

Frontage Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27754" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27754:1">Frontage Holdings (1521 HK)</a> has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$2.55-3.20 per share to raise HK$1.27-1.60 billion ($160-200 million). Three cornerstone investors, Hillhouse Capital, Greenwoods Asset Management and OrbiMed Advisors, intend to purchase $90 million of the offering.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/frontage-holdings-ipo-preview-an-uncertain-transition" target="_blank">our IPO initiation note</a>, we cautioned that while the market backdrop is favourable, Frontage is a business in the middle of an uncertain transition. Overall, with the caveat that Frontage has yet to prove that it can reaccelerate organic revenue growth, we believe that the risk-reward profile is favourable at the low-end of IPO price range. </p></div>

Frontage Holdings (1521 HK) has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$2.55-3.20 per share to raise HK$1.27-1.60 billion ($160-200 million). Three cornerstone investors, Hillhouse Capital, Greenwoods Asset Management and OrbiMed Advisors, intend to purchase $90 million of the offering.In our IPO initiation note, we cautioned that while the market backdrop is favourable, Frontage is a business in the middle of an uncertain transition. Overall, with the caveat that Frontage has yet to prove that it can reaccelerate organic revenue growth, we believe that the risk-reward profile is favourable at the low-end of IPO price range. 

Frontage Holdings IPO: Risk-Reward Is Favourable at the Low-End of Price Range

Viva Biotech Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27850" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27850:1">Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK)</a> is a leading global contract research organisation (CRO). It has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,232 million ($157 million), at the mid-point of the IPO price range.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Overall, with the caveat that Viva's valuation is highly dependent on fair value gains (from its portfolio companies), we believe that Viva can just about justify the low-end of IPO price range</p></div>

Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK) is a leading global contract research organisation (CRO). It has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,232 million ($157 million), at the mid-point of the IPO price range.Overall, with the caveat that Viva's valuation is highly dependent on fair value gains (from its portfolio companies), we believe that Viva can just about justify the low-end of IPO price range

Viva Biotech IPO: Just About Supporting the Low-End IPO Price Range

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27795" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1">WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK)</a> is a leading global pharmaceutical R&amp;D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017. WuXi AppTec has launched its Hong Kong IPO to raise $954–1,064 million, implying a market cap of $9.6–10.7 billion.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>WuXi AppTec hopes to rebuild investor sentiment in large Hong Kong IPOs after a string of high profile IPO disasters. WuXi AppTec has a good but admittedly short track record through its A Share listing. Our analysis suggests that WuXi AppTec is overvalued at the proposed IPO price range. Consequently, we recommend sitting out the IPO and building a position on any post-IPO share price weakness.</p></div>

WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK) is a leading global pharmaceutical R&amp;D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017. WuXi AppTec has launched its Hong Kong IPO to raise $954–1,064 million, implying a market cap of $9.6–10.7 billion.  WuXi AppTec hopes to rebuild investor sentiment in large Hong Kong IPOs after a string of high profile IPO disasters. WuXi AppTec has a good but admittedly short track record through its A Share listing. Our analysis suggests that WuXi AppTec is overvalued at the proposed IPO price range. Consequently, we recommend sitting out the IPO and building a position on any post-IPO share price weakness.

WuXi AppTec IPO Valuation: Not Much Money Left on the Table

United States

Catalent, Inc. provides delivery technologies and development solutions for drugs, biologics and consumer health products. The Company's oral, injectable, and respiratory delivery technologies address the diversity of the pharmaceutical industry including small molecules, large molecule biologics and consumer health products.

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Catalent Inc (CTLT US)

Breaking Growth Short Candidates

Get a glimpse into our short idea generation process through our Breaking Growth model update. This week: Insulet, Generac, Catalent and Wingstop...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Novotech Health IPO: Valuation First-Look

Novotech is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $0.5-1.0 billion. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Novotech's...

Arun George

Frontage Holdings IPO: Risk-Reward Is Favourable at the Low-End of Price Range

Frontage Holdings (1521 HK) has launched its Hong Kong IPO at a price range of HK$2.55-3.20 per share to raise HK$1.27-1.60 billion ($160-200...

Arun George

Viva Biotech IPO: Just About Supporting the Low-End IPO Price Range

Viva Biotech Holdings (1873 HK) is a leading global contract research organisation (CRO). It has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of HK$1,232...

Arun George

WuXi AppTec IPO Valuation: Not Much Money Left on the Table

WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd. (WUXI HK) is a leading global pharmaceutical R&D outsourcing service provider and the largest in Asia by revenue in 2017....

Arun George

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