Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

Concerns about deflation - the phenomenon of falling prices&nbsp;of goods and services - in the wake of the financial crisis, have provided the intellectual cornerstone for central banks around the world - led by the Federal Reserve - to embrace unconventional policy measures, notably forward guidance and large scale asset purchases or quantitative easing. A recently published study by the Bank of International Settlements takes aim at deflation aversion and shows that episodes of goods &amp; services deflation over the past 150 years have been associated with surprisingly small output losses, but asset price deflations &ndash; notably declining property prices &ndash; have led to significantly lower GDP growth. I show that a simple demand-supply framework can be used to discriminate between good and bad deflations, and argue that the synchronized policy easings by many of the world&rsquo;s central banks in January and February were designed to address the Great Disinflation associated with a persistent shortfall in aggregate demand globally. Even if the equilibrium global interest rate has declined &ndash; as argued by Ben Bernanke recently - monetary policy still has an important role to play in boosting the psychology of risk taking in the corporate and household sectors.

Concerns about deflation - the phenomenon of falling prices&nbsp;of goods and services - in the wake of the financial crisis, have provided the intellectual cornerstone for central banks around the world - led by the Federal Reserve - to embrace unconventional policy measures, notably forward guidance and large scale asset purchases or quantitative easing. A recently published study by the Bank of International Settlements takes aim at deflation aversion and shows that episodes of goods &amp; services deflation over the past 150 years have been associated with surprisingly small output losses, but asset price deflations &ndash; notably declining property prices &ndash; have led to significantly lower GDP growth. I show that a simple demand-supply framework can be used to discriminate between good and bad deflations, and argue that the synchronized policy easings by many of the world&rsquo;s central banks in January and February were designed to address the Great Disinflation associated with a persistent shortfall in aggregate demand globally. Even if the equilibrium global interest rate has declined &ndash; as argued by Ben Bernanke recently - monetary policy still has an important role to play in boosting the psychology of risk taking in the corporate and household sectors.

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ol><li>Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians&nbsp;who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in&nbsp;London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV.&nbsp;Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double&nbsp;digits over the next 7-10 years annually.</li><li>Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran&nbsp;deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access&nbsp;listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed</li><li>Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as&nbsp;spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the&nbsp;least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in&nbsp;exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will&nbsp;gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve.</li></ol>

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians&nbsp;who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in&nbsp;London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV.&nbsp;Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double&nbsp;digits over the next 7-10 years annually.Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran&nbsp;deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access&nbsp;listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removedBuy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as&nbsp;spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the&nbsp;least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in&nbsp;exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will&nbsp;gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve.

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

<ul><li>With CHF last at 0.9033, we are +5% (unlevered) on the cross since the Fri Jan 16th call where it closed at 0.8587. I continue to believe and feel this is a big trade for the year, I am a lot more relaxed now that we are on the other side of the ECB and Greek election and think we are north of 1.02-1.05 in the 2nd half of the year </li><li>The size of ECB QE is not priced in – There is massive European Equities Upside!&nbsp;The case here is simple, we’ve just come out of a greater than anticipated QE from the ECB, that is open ended and set to run until Sep 2016.&nbsp;Whilst the market was more likely thinking we’d get a Euros 500-700bn handle, we got over a trillion euros worth, with a lot fewer parameters or caps than would have been expected by those pesky conservative Bundesbankers – who keep wanting to turn off the taps (I know I know, how dare they). </li></ul>

With CHF last at 0.9033, we are +5% (unlevered) on the cross since the Fri Jan 16th call where it closed at 0.8587. I continue to believe and feel this is a big trade for the year, I am a lot more relaxed now that we are on the other side of the ECB and Greek election and think we are north of 1.02-1.05 in the 2nd half of the year The size of ECB QE is not priced in – There is massive European Equities Upside!&nbsp;The case here is simple, we’ve just come out of a greater than anticipated QE from the ECB, that is open ended and set to run until Sep 2016.&nbsp;Whilst the market was more likely thinking we’d get a Euros 500-700bn handle, we got over a trillion euros worth, with a lot fewer parameters or caps than would have been expected by those pesky conservative Bundesbankers – who keep wanting to turn off the taps (I know I know, how dare they). 

The size of ECB QE is not priced in – Massive European Equities Upside

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Financials Exchanges have hit record highs in Global fund ownership, with 58% of global funds invested and 49% ahead of the MSCI ACWI index.</li>
<li>CME Group and London Stock Exchange lead momentum, both reaching record ownership after strong inflows through 2023–2024.</li>
<li>Despite growth, ownership breadth remains shallow, with only a few stocks widely held, leaving room for further expansion in positioning.</li>
</ul>


Financials Exchanges have hit record highs in Global fund ownership, with 58% of global funds invested and 49% ahead of the MSCI ACWI index.
CME Group and London Stock Exchange lead momentum, both reaching record ownership after strong inflows through 2023–2024.
Despite growth, ownership breadth remains shallow, with only a few stocks widely held, leaving room for further expansion in positioning.


Global Financial Exchanges: A Sector on the Rise

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cme-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12353:1" rel="noopener">Cme Group Inc (CME US)</a> has approached <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cboe-global-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20189:1" rel="noopener">Cboe Global Markets (CBOE US)</a> with a view to making an all paper acquisition, according to the FT</li>
<li>If confirmed, a CME-CBOE tie up would, in our view, indicate that CME management’s rationale would be to “bulk up” on data revenues; also, the tie-up would benefit from the enlarged scale of two derivative exchanges, with broadly complimentary product offerings</li>
<li>Furthermore, we would expect longer term synergy benefits from reduced opex and capex</li>
<li>The reported CBOE acquisition price tag of USD16bn is a 20% premium to its current market value, which implies a take-out 2022E consensus PE multiple of 26x, which is at a slight discount to CME itself (26.9x)</li>
<li>We believe that the spotlight is now on CBOE, and its very attractive business mix with its premium EBITDA margin; we believe that the merger would be positive CBOE shareholders, and broadly neutral for CME shareholders</li>
<li>Risks to our positive view on CBOE based on a potential CME-CBOE merger include regulatory and anti-trust opposition to the merger, on the basis of monopolistic concerns; another key risk in the event of a merger, would be the failure to extract the expected cost savings and synergies outlined by management</li>
</ul>



Cme Group Inc (CME US) has approached Cboe Global Markets (CBOE US) with a view to making an all paper acquisition, according to the FT
If confirmed, a CME-CBOE tie up would, in our view, indicate that CME management’s rationale would be to “bulk up” on data revenues; also, the tie-up would benefit from the enlarged scale of two derivative exchanges, with broadly complimentary product offerings
Furthermore, we would expect longer term synergy benefits from reduced opex and capex
The reported CBOE acquisition price tag of USD16bn is a 20% premium to its current market value, which implies a take-out 2022E consensus PE multiple of 26x, which is at a slight discount to CME itself (26.9x)
We believe that the spotlight is now on CBOE, and its very attractive business mix with its premium EBITDA margin; we believe that the merger would be positive CBOE shareholders, and broadly neutral for CME shareholders
Risks to our positive view on CBOE based on a potential CME-CBOE merger include regulatory and anti-trust opposition to the merger, on the basis of monopolistic concerns; another key risk in the event of a merger, would be the failure to extract the expected cost savings and synergies outlined by management


United States

CBOE Global Markets, Inc. operates a marketplace for the trading of standardized, listed options on equity securities. The Company is recognized for its role in the trading of options on individual equities, market indexes and exchange-traded funds, their suite of products, their markets and their hybrid trading model.

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CBOE Global Markets (CBOE US)

Who's Afraid of Deflation?

Concerns about deflation - the phenomenon of falling prices of goods and services - in the wake of the financial crisis, have provided the...

Sam Ferraro

Islam, Terror, Politics and Oil - Part 2

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment...

Emad Mostaque

The size of ECB QE is not priced in – Massive European Equities Upside

With CHF last at 0.9033, we are +5% (unlevered) on the cross since the Fri Jan 16th call where it closed at 0.8587. I continue to believe and...

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Financial Exchanges: A Sector on the Rise

Financials Exchanges are at record exposure levels, led by CME and LSE. Momentum is strong, but breadth is shallow, with few stocks widely...

Steven Holden

CME & CBOE: Merger Musings

A potential merger of CME-CBOE would, based on the FT article terms, be positive for CBOE shareholders in the main; the attractions are...

Victor Galliano

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