Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Growth in commercial real estate to be subdued in 2024 due to weak demand, especially for office spaces.</li>
<li>Concerns over CRE loan defaults grow stronger as the industry faces a liquidity crunch.</li>
<li>Delinquency rates of commercial real estate loans rise for five consecutive quarters till Q32023.</li>
</ul>


Growth in commercial real estate to be subdued in 2024 due to weak demand, especially for office spaces.
Concerns over CRE loan defaults grow stronger as the industry faces a liquidity crunch.
Delinquency rates of commercial real estate loans rise for five consecutive quarters till Q32023.


Rough Road Ahead for US Commercial Real Estate but Industrial CRE Is Rooted to Outperform Others

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Office leasing in Beijing plunged 21% in the first quarter from the fourth, according to real estate service provider CBRE Group Inc., signaling businesses’ reluctance to expand in a shaky post-pandemic economy.</li><li>The data reflect newly leased areas in prime office buildings. The number of deals signed to expand office space rental in Grade A office buildings in Beijing dropped 6% during the first three months from the last three months of 2022.</li><li>The average expansion area of office rental decreased from 1,700 square meters to 1,400 square meters on a quarter-to-quarter basis, data from CBRE showed.</li></ul>

Office leasing in Beijing plunged 21% in the first quarter from the fourth, according to real estate service provider CBRE Group Inc., signaling businesses’ reluctance to expand in a shaky post-pandemic economy.The data reflect newly leased areas in prime office buildings. The number of deals signed to expand office space rental in Grade A office buildings in Beijing dropped 6% during the first three months from the last three months of 2022.The average expansion area of office rental decreased from 1,700 square meters to 1,400 square meters on a quarter-to-quarter basis, data from CBRE showed.

Newly Leased Space in Beijing Prime Office Buildings Plunges 21%

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Legal /In Depth: Giving China’s death row inmates a second chance</li><li>China-New Zealand /: China-New Zealand ties will continue to ‘grow and mature,’ island nation’s top diplomat says</li><li>Stocks /: China’s newest stock exchange fails to recapture early momentum</li></ul>

Legal /In Depth: Giving China’s death row inmates a second chanceChina-New Zealand /: China-New Zealand ties will continue to ‘grow and mature,’ island nation’s top diplomat saysStocks /: China’s newest stock exchange fails to recapture early momentum

CX Daily: Giving China’s Death Row Inmates a Second Chance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.</li>
<li>These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.</li>
<li>This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.</li>
</ul>


Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.
These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.
This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.


Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

<p>While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.</p>

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

United States

CBRE Group, Inc. provides real estate services. The Company offers property management, valuation, real estate investment, and advisory services. CBRE Group operates offices, data centers, multi-family, hotels, gaming, and retail sectors. CBRE Group serves customers globally.

CBRE Group (CBRE US)

Rough Road Ahead for US Commercial Real Estate but Industrial CRE Is Rooted to Outperform Others

US CRE shows bleak prospects for 2024 due to structural demand decline for office space. CRE loan delinquency on the rise for five sequential...

Mint Finance

Newly Leased Space in Beijing Prime Office Buildings Plunges 21%

Office leasing in Beijing plunged 21% in the first quarter from the fourth, according to real estate service provider CBRE Group Inc., signaling...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: Giving China’s Death Row Inmates a Second Chance

Legal /In Depth: Giving China’s death row inmates a second chance China-New Zealand /: China-New Zealand ties will continue to ‘grow and mature,’...

Caixin Global

Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

Risk-off signals are abating which is an encouraging sign. Charts Highlighted: IWM, IWC, JETS, BAM, CBRE, INVH, JLL, HHC, JOE, MMI, APTS, CTO, AMT,...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

While the S&P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to...

Vermilion Research