India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Since 2021, coffee prices have surged up to 300%, driven by supply disruptions in major producers like Brazil and Vietnam. Recent price corrections provides relief still volatility remains high. </li>
<li>The price fluctuations directly affect Indian coffee processors, with increased working capital requirements and lower PAT margin. Stabilizing prices can improve profitability and working capital cycles. </li>
<li>
FMCG giants like Nestle and Tata Consumer Products faced margin pressures due to volatile coffee prices. While recent declines provide relief, continued price uncertainty requires adaptive strategies for cost management.</li>
</ul>


Since 2021, coffee prices have surged up to 300%, driven by supply disruptions in major producers like Brazil and Vietnam. Recent price corrections provides relief still volatility remains high. 
The price fluctuations directly affect Indian coffee processors, with increased working capital requirements and lower PAT margin. Stabilizing prices can improve profitability and working capital cycles. 

FMCG giants like Nestle and Tata Consumer Products faced margin pressures due to volatile coffee prices. While recent declines provide relief, continued price uncertainty requires adaptive strategies for cost management.


Thematic Report on the Coffee Price Rollercoaster: Implications for India’s FMCG & Processing Sector

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The company reported solid revenue growth of ~22% YoY in Q2FY25, reaching Rs 738 Cr, driven by volume growth of ~10% and higher realizations from premium coffee.</li><li>EBITDA grew by ~25% YoY, with EBITDA margins improving by 48bps YoY to 18.6%, supported by a favourable product mix (higher value contracts), premium brand collaborations, and smaller SKUs. </li><li>The management remains optimistic about coffee prices stabilizing at current levels, with a potential for softening if favourable harvests materialize in Vietnam and Brazil.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The company reported solid revenue growth of ~22% YoY in Q2FY25, reaching Rs 738 Cr, driven by volume growth of ~10% and higher realizations from premium coffee.EBITDA grew by ~25% YoY, with EBITDA margins improving by 48bps YoY to 18.6%, supported by a favourable product mix (higher value contracts), premium brand collaborations, and smaller SKUs. The management remains optimistic about coffee prices stabilizing at current levels, with a potential for softening if favourable harvests materialize in Vietnam and Brazil.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CCL Products Ltd - Growth Momentum Continues; Maintain BUY

<ul><li>FMCG companies under our coverage are expected to experience a recovery in volume growth.</li><li>Revenue growth will primarily be driven by volume growth in the low to mid-single digits, led by improved rural sentiments.</li><li>Rural growth is expected to outpace urban growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG companies under our coverage are expected to experience a recovery in volume growth.Revenue growth will primarily be driven by volume growth in the low to mid-single digits, led by improved rural sentiments.Rural growth is expected to outpace urban growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>CCL Products’ consolidated revenue for Q1FY25 was Rs 773 Cr, reflecting an 18% YoY growth, driven by approximately 15% volume growth.</li><li>Gross margins declined by 170 bps to 38.1%, impacted by hyperinflation in coffee prices.</li><li>EBITDA increased to Rs 130 Cr, a 22.5% YoY rise, while EBITDA margins improved to 16.8%, up 61 bps YoY, due to higher value contracts and smaller pack sizes (SKUs). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CCL Products’ consolidated revenue for Q1FY25 was Rs 773 Cr, reflecting an 18% YoY growth, driven by approximately 15% volume growth.Gross margins declined by 170 bps to 38.1%, impacted by hyperinflation in coffee prices.EBITDA increased to Rs 130 Cr, a 22.5% YoY rise, while EBITDA margins improved to 16.8%, up 61 bps YoY, due to higher value contracts and smaller pack sizes (SKUs). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CCL Products Ltd - Volume-Led Growth Continues; Maintain BUY

<ul><li>CCL Products’ consolidated revenue for Q4FY24 stood at Rs 727 Cr, reporting a growth of 40% YoY led by 8-10% volume growth in Q4 (14% volume growth in FY24).</li><li>The company’s gross margins declined by 907bps to 43%, led by hyperinflation in coffee prices. Its EBITDA stood at Rs 118 Cr, up by 4.5% YoY; however, EBITDA margins came in at 16.3% (miss), down by 548 bps YoY due to higher operating expenses.</li><li>The company’s Adj. PAT stood at Rs 65 Cr (miss), declining by 24% YoY.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CCL Products’ consolidated revenue for Q4FY24 stood at Rs 727 Cr, reporting a growth of 40% YoY led by 8-10% volume growth in Q4 (14% volume growth in FY24).The company’s gross margins declined by 907bps to 43%, led by hyperinflation in coffee prices. Its EBITDA stood at Rs 118 Cr, up by 4.5% YoY; however, EBITDA margins came in at 16.3% (miss), down by 548 bps YoY due to higher operating expenses.The company’s Adj. PAT stood at Rs 65 Cr (miss), declining by 24% YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CCL Products Ltd - High Double-Digit Volume Growth Outlook Continues

India

CCL Products India Ltd is a manufacturer and exporter of powdered and granulated coffee. The company exports instant coffee under different international and domestic brand names.

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CCL Products India (CCLP IN)

Thematic Report on the Coffee Price Rollercoaster: Implications for India’s FMCG & Processing Sector

Coffee prices have dropped 25% since last 3 months, impacting Indian processors and FMCG giants. Stabilizing prices crucial for profitability and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

CCL Products Ltd - Growth Momentum Continues; Maintain BUY

The company reported solid revenue growth of ~22% YoY in Q2FY25, reaching Rs 738 Cr, driven by volume growth of ~10% and higher realizations from...

Axis Direct

Q2FY25 Earnings Preview - FMCG & RETAIL

Revenue growth will primarily be driven by volume growth in the low to mid-single digits, led by improved rural sentiments. Rural growth is...

Axis Direct

CCL Products Ltd - Volume-Led Growth Continues; Maintain BUY

CCL Products’ consolidated revenue for Q1FY25 was Rs 773 Cr, reflecting an 18% YoY growth, driven by approximately 15% volume growth.

Axis Direct

CCL Products Ltd - High Double-Digit Volume Growth Outlook Continues

CCL Products’ consolidated revenue for Q4FY24 stood at Rs 727 Cr, reporting a growth of 40% YoY led by 8-10% volume growth in Q4 (14% volume growth...

Axis Direct

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Thematic Report on the Coffee Price Rollercoaster: Implications for India’s FMCG & Processing Sector

​Coffee prices have dropped 25% since last 3 months, impacting Indian processors and FMCG giants. Stabilizing prices crucial for profitability and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

CCL Products Ltd - Growth Momentum Continues; Maintain BUY

The company reported solid revenue growth of ~22% YoY in Q2FY25, reaching Rs 738 Cr, driven by volume growth of ~10% and higher realizations from...

Axis Direct

Q2FY25 Earnings Preview - FMCG & RETAIL

Revenue growth will primarily be driven by volume growth in the low to mid-single digits, led by improved rural sentiments. Rural growth is...

Axis Direct

CCL Products Ltd - Volume-Led Growth Continues; Maintain BUY

CCL Products’ consolidated revenue for Q1FY25 was Rs 773 Cr, reflecting an 18% YoY growth, driven by approximately 15% volume growth.

Axis Direct

CCL Products Ltd - High Double-Digit Volume Growth Outlook Continues

CCL Products’ consolidated revenue for Q4FY24 stood at Rs 727 Cr, reporting a growth of 40% YoY led by 8-10% volume growth in Q4 (14% volume growth...

Axis Direct

Coffee prices have dropped 25% since last 3 months, impacting Indian processors and FMCG giants. Stabilizing prices crucial for profitability and...