Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. </li>
<li>Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.</li>
<li>There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.</li>
</ul>


Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.


Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated short interest was USD7.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Lg Energy Solution, Celltrion, Ecoprobm, Hanmi Semicon, Posco Chemical.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated short interest was USD7.6bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Lg Energy Solution, Celltrion, Ecoprobm, Hanmi Semicon, Posco Chemical.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Lg Energy Solution, Celltrion, Ecoprobm, Hanmi Semicon

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The biosimilar market is forecast to grow three to four times faster than the generic drug market over the next five years.</li>
<li>However, we believe that this high growth will not necessarily imply good profitability, given the early stage of the biosimilar market, complications and competition.</li>
<li>We also believe that the company’s guidance is too optimistic resulting in an expensive multiple. We prefer some room for error.  </li>
</ul>


The biosimilar market is forecast to grow three to four times faster than the generic drug market over the next five years.
However, we believe that this high growth will not necessarily imply good profitability, given the early stage of the biosimilar market, complications and competition.
We also believe that the company’s guidance is too optimistic resulting in an expensive multiple. We prefer some room for error.  


Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)– Is the Sell-Side’s Bullishness Justified?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Celltrion Inc announced that its proposed merger with Celltrion Pharm has been cancelled due to disapproval of this deal among an overwhelming percentage of Celltrion Inc shareholders.</li>
<li>This cancellation of a merger between Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Pharm is likely to continue to have a positive impact on Celltrion Inc and negative impact on Celltrion Pharm.</li>
<li>The major reason is because Celltrion Pharm trades at high valuation multiples while Celltrion Inc trades at lower valuation multiples. Celltrion Pharm's P/B valuation is more than 3x Celltrion Inc's.</li>
</ul>


Celltrion Inc announced that its proposed merger with Celltrion Pharm has been cancelled due to disapproval of this deal among an overwhelming percentage of Celltrion Inc shareholders.
This cancellation of a merger between Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Pharm is likely to continue to have a positive impact on Celltrion Inc and negative impact on Celltrion Pharm.
The major reason is because Celltrion Pharm trades at high valuation multiples while Celltrion Inc trades at lower valuation multiples. Celltrion Pharm's P/B valuation is more than 3x Celltrion Inc's.


Merger Between Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Pharm Is Cancelled

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> posted revenue of KRW875B in 2Q24, driven by balanced growth in both the existing core and new biosimilar products.</li>
<li>Operating profit ‘temporarily’ declined 60% YoY due to the ongoing impact of the merger. However, operating profit improved by a massive 371% sequentially.</li>
<li>Celltrion maintains its 2024 revenue target of KRW3.5T (+60% YoY). The improvement in sales and operating profit in the second half of the year is expected to become increasingly evident.</li>
</ul>



Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) posted revenue of KRW875B in 2Q24, driven by balanced growth in both the existing core and new biosimilar products.
Operating profit ‘temporarily’ declined 60% YoY due to the ongoing impact of the merger. However, operating profit improved by a massive 371% sequentially.
Celltrion maintains its 2024 revenue target of KRW3.5T (+60% YoY). The improvement in sales and operating profit in the second half of the year is expected to become increasingly evident.


Celltrion (068270 KS): 2Q24 Result- Biosimilar Sales Roar; Operating Profit Recovers Sequentially

South Korea

Celltrion Inc. produces and sells biosimilar products and also provides consignm ent processing service for other companies.  The Company's main product is Abata cept which is for arthritis treatment

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Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea commences from Monday. There will be a lot of interest in shorting stocks/sectors depending on how they have performed since...

Brian Freitas

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Lg Energy Solution, Celltrion, Ecoprobm, Hanmi Semicon

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Lg Energy Solution, Celltrion, Ecoprobm, Hanmi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM