Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A meaningful recovery is still pending; soft conditions across most industries remain, with weather headwinds and FX impacting some companies.</li>
<li>For yet another quarter, we forecast average margin contraction for our covered companies, a trend that seems to be lingering for the rest of the year.</li>
<li>In Consumer, we are mostly lowering our PTs, -2% on a median basis, as we expect continued consumer softness in both Mexico and the U.S.; FX is expected to be less of a factor YoY. </li>
</ul>


A meaningful recovery is still pending; soft conditions across most industries remain, with weather headwinds and FX impacting some companies.
For yet another quarter, we forecast average margin contraction for our covered companies, a trend that seems to be lingering for the rest of the year.
In Consumer, we are mostly lowering our PTs, -2% on a median basis, as we expect continued consumer softness in both Mexico and the U.S.; FX is expected to be less of a factor YoY. 


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 3Q25 Preview

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Giant Network Group Co Ltd / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>We remain overweight/continue to have a major focus on China (Shanghai Composite). It continues to offer the most attractive opportunities, with a significant number of today's recommendations coming from China.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121.
We remain overweight/continue to have a major focus on China (Shanghai Composite). It continues to offer the most attractive opportunities, with a significant number of today's recommendations coming from China.


Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

<ul>
<li>We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.</li>
<li>Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).</li>
<li>We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. </li>
</ul>


We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.
Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).
We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. 


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

<ul>
<li>Total revenues decreased by 5% to US$3.8 Bn, while EBITDA dropped 3% (or +3% on a like-to-like basis) to US$681 M, slightly above the consensus estimate of US$673 M and slightly below our US$692 M estimate.</li>
<li>On the other hand, the net profit of US$48 M compares positively to the US$441 M net loss in 4Q23, while in 2024, the company reached a US$939 M net profit, a record level for CEMEX.</li>
<li>CEMEX's EBITDA margin during the quarter was 17.9% (vs. 17.5% in 4Q23), implying a 0.4 pp.</li>
</ul>


Total revenues decreased by 5% to US$3.8 Bn, while EBITDA dropped 3% (or +3% on a like-to-like basis) to US$681 M, slightly above the consensus estimate of US$673 M and slightly below our US$692 M estimate.
On the other hand, the net profit of US$48 M compares positively to the US$441 M net loss in 4Q23, while in 2024, the company reached a US$939 M net profit, a record level for CEMEX.
CEMEX's EBITDA margin during the quarter was 17.9% (vs. 17.5% in 4Q23), implying a 0.4 pp.


Actinver Research - CEMEX: Reaching a record level in Net Income in 2024 (Quick View)

Mexico

Cemex SAB de CV is a building products company. The Company produces, distributes, and markets cement, ready-mix concrete, aggregates, and related building materials. Cemex operates throughout the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

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Cemex SAB de CV (CEMEXCPO MM)

Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 3Q25 Preview

A meaningful recovery is still pending; soft conditions across most industries remain, with weather headwinds and FX impacting some companies.

Actinver

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

Still Bullish. China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 Int'l Compass titled "China and Japan Breaking Out." It...

Vermilion Research

Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects...

Actinver

Actinver Research - CEMEX: Reaching a record level in Net Income in 2024 (Quick View)

Total revenues decreased by 5% to US$3.8 Bn, while EBITDA dropped 3% (or +3% on a like-to-like basis) to US$681 M, slightly above the consensus...

Actinver

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