Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Argentina’s $20 Billion IMF Deal Could Calm Markets Ahead of Midterms</li>
<li>Pemex Monthly Report: February/Minerva Positioned to Benefit from China’s Shift in Protein Imports</li>
<li>Cemex: Stable Outlook Affirmed Despite Hybrid Reclassification Dragging Metrics/ YPF Launches “Vaca Muerta Institute” to Support Shale Growth</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s $20 Billion IMF Deal Could Calm Markets Ahead of Midterms
Pemex Monthly Report: February/Minerva Positioned to Benefit from China’s Shift in Protein Imports
Cemex: Stable Outlook Affirmed Despite Hybrid Reclassification Dragging Metrics/ YPF Launches “Vaca Muerta Institute” to Support Shale Growth


Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Although the environment was challenging (still bad weather conditions and higher comps), the Cement Industry's quarterly results were better than expected.</li><li>Higher costs were compensated by the companies' efficiencies and higher prices in local currencies, resulting in the sector's margin expansion.</li><li> Total revenues in 4Q24 decreased by 5% YoY, while total EBITDA dropped 3% YoY.</li></ul>

Although the environment was challenging (still bad weather conditions and higher comps), the Cement Industry's quarterly results were better than expected.Higher costs were compensated by the companies' efficiencies and higher prices in local currencies, resulting in the sector's margin expansion. Total revenues in 4Q24 decreased by 5% YoY, while total EBITDA dropped 3% YoY.

GCC* MM - Actinver Research - Cement 4Q24: A Year With Solid Margin Expansion (Quarterly Review)

<ul>
<li>Vista Energy - Mercado Libre - Telecom Argentina - Suzano - Cemex</li>
<li>The LatAm Aggregate Index expanded by 14 bps to 331 bps in the week ending Friday, February 28, 2025. </li>
<li>U.S. Treasuries saw significant declines. The 10-year yield fell 22 bps to 4.21%, while the 5-year yield declined 25 bps to 4.02%.</li>
</ul>


Vista Energy - Mercado Libre - Telecom Argentina - Suzano - Cemex
The LatAm Aggregate Index expanded by 14 bps to 331 bps in the week ending Friday, February 28, 2025. 
U.S. Treasuries saw significant declines. The 10-year yield fell 22 bps to 4.21%, while the 5-year yield declined 25 bps to 4.02%.


<ul>
<li>The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted modestly by 1 bps to 307 bps in the week ending Friday, February 14, 2025.</li>
<li>Argentina's inflation rate slowed to 2.2% in January, the lowest monthly figure in 4.5 years, according to INDEC.</li>
<li>We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted modestly by 1 bps to 307 bps in the week ending Friday, February 14, 2025.
Argentina's inflation rate slowed to 2.2% in January, the lowest monthly figure in 4.5 years, according to INDEC.
We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.


Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

<ul>
<li>We maintain our Market Perform recommendation on Cemex. Current spreads do not offer an attractive entry point, particularly given the potential risk of U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports.</li>
<li>We would keep the name on our watchlist for potential investment should this risk of U.S. tariffs subside.</li>
<li>Within Cemex’s capital structure, we prefer the CEMEX (BBB-/BBB-) 5.20% 2030 notes, which trade wider than the Mexican sovereign, the EM BBB index, and comparable peers.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our Market Perform recommendation on Cemex. Current spreads do not offer an attractive entry point, particularly given the potential risk of U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports.
We would keep the name on our watchlist for potential investment should this risk of U.S. tariffs subside.
Within Cemex’s capital structure, we prefer the CEMEX (BBB-/BBB-) 5.20% 2030 notes, which trade wider than the Mexican sovereign, the EM BBB index, and comparable peers.


Cemex 4Q24: A Solid EM Credit, But Tariff Overhang Limits Near-Term Potential

Mexico

Cemex SAB de CV is a building products company. The Company produces, distributes, and markets cement, ready-mix concrete, aggregates, and related building materials. Cemex operates throughout the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

Price Gauge
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Cemex SAB de CV (CEMEXCPO MM)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

Leandro Gubler

GCC* MM - Actinver Research - Cement 4Q24: A Year With Solid Margin Expansion (Quarterly Review)

Although the environment was challenging (still bad weather conditions and higher comps), the Cement Industry's quarterly results were better than...

Actinver

Weekly News & Views - Feb 28, 2025

The LatAm Aggregate Index expanded by 14 bps to 331 bps in the week ending Friday, February 28, 2025. Meanwhile, the broader Emerging Market Index...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

LatAm Aggregate Index slightly contracted, Argentina's inflation rate decreased to 2.2%, Suzano's bonds upgraded to Outperform.

Leandro Gubler

Cemex 4Q24: A Solid EM Credit, But Tariff Overhang Limits Near-Term Potential

Maintain Market Perform on Cemex. Watchlist for investment if tariff risk subsides. Prefer CEMEX 5.20% 2030 notes in capital structure.

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

Leandro Gubler

GCC* MM - Actinver Research - Cement 4Q24: A Year With Solid Margin Expansion (Quarterly Review)

Although the environment was challenging (still bad weather conditions and higher comps), the Cement Industry's quarterly results were better than...

Actinver

Weekly News & Views - Feb 28, 2025

The LatAm Aggregate Index expanded by 14 bps to 331 bps in the week ending Friday, February 28, 2025. Meanwhile, the broader Emerging Market Index...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views (Suzano, YPF, Vista, Cemex, Minerva).

​LatAm Aggregate Index slightly contracted, Argentina's inflation rate decreased to 2.2%, Suzano's bonds upgraded to Outperform.

Leandro Gubler

Cemex 4Q24: A Solid EM Credit, But Tariff Overhang Limits Near-Term Potential

​Maintain Market Perform on Cemex. Watchlist for investment if tariff risk subsides. Prefer CEMEX 5.20% 2030 notes in capital structure.

Leandro Gubler

Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

LatAm Aggregate Index slightly contracted, Argentina's inflation rate decreased to 2.2%, Suzano's bonds upgraded to Outperform.

Maintain Market Perform on Cemex. Watchlist for investment if tariff risk subsides. Prefer CEMEX 5.20% 2030 notes in capital structure.