Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.</p>

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

<p>The number of major country indexes showing major bullish inflections continues to grow. Broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index) also display a bullish reversal topside a 12.5-year downtrend. This type of evidence helps affirm our bullish outlook and suggests higher prices are ahead. Continue to add exposure on pullbacks.</p>

The number of major country indexes showing major bullish inflections continues to grow. Broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index) also display a bullish reversal topside a 12.5-year downtrend. This type of evidence helps affirm our bullish outlook and suggests higher prices are ahead. Continue to add exposure on pullbacks.

Long-Term Bullish Inflections For Hang Seng, DAX, MSCI EM, & Bloomberg Commodity Index

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1104/2020110400676.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it is at an advanced stage of negotiations with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellnex-telecom-sau" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21258:1" rel="noopener">Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM)</a> for the disposals of its telecommunications infrastructure assets in Europe.</p>
<p>Subject to the finalisation of definitive documentation, total proceeds on completion of the transactions are ~€10.0bn, including minority partners’ share. The headline transaction price mirrors that rumoured a week ago in the media, and accounts for ~24% of CKH's NAV.</p>
<p>The announcement follows the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1026/2020102600071.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">news</a> last week that CKH will reduce its exposure to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/husky-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22923:1" rel="noopener">Husky Energy (HSE CN)</a> in a deal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cenovus-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24253:1" rel="noopener">Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE CN)</a>.</p>
<p>CKH is trading cheap at a 46% discount to NAV <em>after this morning's ~8.9% share price gain</em>. The implied stub, net of all listed holdings, remains near the -2STD level, based on share prices since the reorganisation of Cheung Kong in <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2015/0603/ltn20150603277.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">June 2015</a>.</p>
<p>For those waiting for a catalyst to enhance/unlock shareholder value, this is it. </p>

CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) has announced it is at an advanced stage of negotiations with Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM) for the disposals of its telecommunications infrastructure assets in Europe.
Subject to the finalisation of definitive documentation, total proceeds on completion of the transactions are ~€10.0bn, including minority partners’ share. The headline transaction price mirrors that rumoured a week ago in the media, and accounts for ~24% of CKH's NAV.
The announcement follows the news last week that CKH will reduce its exposure to Husky Energy (HSE CN) in a deal with Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE CN).
CKH is trading cheap at a 46% discount to NAV after this morning's ~8.9% share price gain. The implied stub, net of all listed holdings, remains near the -2STD level, based on share prices since the reorganisation of Cheung Kong in June 2015.
For those waiting for a catalyst to enhance/unlock shareholder value, this is it. 

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kwg-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12601:1" rel="noopener"></a>Reportedly <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/las-vegas-sands-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:807:1" rel="noopener">Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)</a> is exploring the sale of its Las Vegas hotel-casinos, the result of which would concentrate its gaming portfolio in Macau and Singapore. <br><br><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellnex-telecom-sau" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21258:1" rel="noopener">Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM)</a> is understood to be in advanced talks to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>’s European wireless tower business.</div>
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<p>Preceding my comments on LVS and CK Hutch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed as a % - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Reportedly Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) is exploring the sale of its Las Vegas hotel-casinos, the result of which would concentrate its gaming portfolio in Macau and Singapore.   Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM) is understood to be in advanced talks to acquire CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)’s European wireless tower business.


Preceding my comments on LVS and CK Hutch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.




These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed as a % - of at least 20%.




StubWorld: Macau/Sing Focus As LVS To Ditch LV; CK Hutch In Tower Talks

Global energy equity and oil & gas macro analyst

Anish Kapadia

Akap Energy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Now that the U.S. has imposed tougher sanctions on Venezuela, we examine the potential impact on the oil market and the companies that will impacted, some positively and some negatively. The sanctions should have a positive impact on the oil price and in particular producers of heavier crude (e.g. Canadian/Colombian/Mexican producers) but a negative impact on the more complex refiners that use heavy crude on the US Gulf Coast. </p>

Now that the U.S. has imposed tougher sanctions on Venezuela, we examine the potential impact on the oil market and the companies that will impacted, some positively and some negatively. The sanctions should have a positive impact on the oil price and in particular producers of heavier crude (e.g. Canadian/Colombian/Mexican producers) but a negative impact on the more complex refiners that use heavy crude on the US Gulf Coast. 

Venezuelan Sanctions: What Is the Crude Market Impact and Which Stocks Are Affected

Canada

Cenovus Energy Inc. is an integrated oil company. The Company comprises natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids reserves. Cenovus Energy has established natural gas and crude oil production in Alberta and Saskatchewan as well as refineries in Illinois and Texas.

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Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE CN)

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

We are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Vermilion Research

Long-Term Bullish Inflections For Hang Seng, DAX, MSCI EM, & Bloomberg Commodity Index

The number of major country indexes showing major bullish inflections continues to grow. Broad commodities also breaking a 12.5-year downtrend....

Vermilion Research

CK Hutch: Here's Your Re-Rating Catalyst

CK Hutchison closes in on a Eur10bn tower sale to Spain's Cellnex, which would unlock 24% of NAV and 32% of the unlisted stub value.

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Macau/Sing Focus As LVS To Ditch LV; CK Hutch In Tower Talks

Reportedly Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) is exploring the sale of its Las Vegas hotel-casinos, the result of which would concentrate its gaming...

David Blennerhassett

Venezuelan Sanctions: What Is the Crude Market Impact and Which Stocks Are Affected

Now that the U.S. has imposed tougher sanctions on Venezuela, we examine the potential impact on the oil market and the companies that will...

Anish Kapadia

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