Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

It's time for the S&amp;P500 Index Rebalance. Friday night on 3 Sep ahead of the long weekend we got the <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20210903-1443045/1443045_sept2021-546-shuf-rebal.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. This quarter we have 3 Additions...<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/match-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25903:1" rel="noopener">Match Group Inc (MTCH US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ceridian-hcm-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brown-brown-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19532:1" rel="noopener">Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US)</a> </li>
</ul>Combined, the three ADDITIONS had US$6.4bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.6bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have OP of $1.97bn in the next 12 months.and 3 Deletions... <ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perrigo-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:869:1" rel="noopener">Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unum-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2521:1" rel="noopener">Unum Group (UNM US)</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-oilwell-varco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3046:1" rel="noopener">National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)</a></li>
</ul>Combined, the three DELETIONS had US$21.97bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.1bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have $2.13bn of OP in the next 12 months.<div class="content-highlight">
With 3+x the revenue and a combined OP forecast 8% higher than the ADDITIONS in the next 12 months, these three DELETIONS have a combined market cap of US$16bn as of Friday's close against the combined market cap of the ADDITIONS which are at US$75bn.
That may not make much sense but most major indices are like that - they buy what goes up, after it has gone up, and they sell what underperforms, after it has underperformed. 
</div>While these names are not really a surprise, they may prove interesting.Much more analysis below the fold.

It's time for the S&amp;P500 Index Rebalance. Friday night on 3 Sep ahead of the long weekend we got the announcement from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. This quarter we have 3 Additions...

Match Group Inc (MTCH US) 

Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US) 

Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US) 
Combined, the three ADDITIONS had US$6.4bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.6bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have OP of $1.97bn in the next 12 months.and 3 Deletions... 

Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US) 

Unum Group (UNM US) 
National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)
Combined, the three DELETIONS had US$21.97bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.1bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have $2.13bn of OP in the next 12 months.
With 3+x the revenue and a combined OP forecast 8% higher than the ADDITIONS in the next 12 months, these three DELETIONS have a combined market cap of US$16bn as of Friday's close against the combined market cap of the ADDITIONS which are at US$75bn.
That may not make much sense but most major indices are like that - they buy what goes up, after it has gone up, and they sell what underperforms, after it has underperformed. 
While these names are not really a surprise, they may prove interesting.Much more analysis below the fold. 

S&P500 September 2021 Rebalance:  3 OUT, 3 IN - The Deletions May Be More Interesting

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This is the Fourth and Final of the HRTech Sector series and we will be discussing Ceridian, ADP, Recruit and Visional performance over the last quarter.</li>
<li>The remarkable growth spurt experienced post-Covid seems to be slowing down and margins and revenues have mostly returned to pre-COVID levels.</li>
<li>With digitisation of workplace, the market is expected to see further advancement in categories such as employee experience, talent intelligence, contract workforce management, etc.</li>
</ul>


This is the Fourth and Final of the HRTech Sector series and we will be discussing Ceridian, ADP, Recruit and Visional performance over the last quarter.
The remarkable growth spurt experienced post-Covid seems to be slowing down and margins and revenues have mostly returned to pre-COVID levels.
With digitisation of workplace, the market is expected to see further advancement in categories such as employee experience, talent intelligence, contract workforce management, etc.


HRTech Sector Series: Market Continues to Evolve While Post Covid Growth Begins to Slow Down

<ul>
<li>This is the Third of HRTech sector series and the four companies that we have covered under this series have since reported earnings.</li>
<li>HRTech market has undergone rapid changes and 2023 will bring in more value to the recent transformation such as Hybrid work models and metaverse that the industry has witnessed.</li>
<li>Of the four companies, except for Recruit, other three continues to perform positively with Visional recording the highest growth among the four.</li>
</ul>


This is the Third of HRTech sector series and the four companies that we have covered under this series have since reported earnings.
HRTech market has undergone rapid changes and 2023 will bring in more value to the recent transformation such as Hybrid work models and metaverse that the industry has witnessed.
Of the four companies, except for Recruit, other three continues to perform positively with Visional recording the highest growth among the four.


HRTech Sector Series: Hybrid Work Models and Metaverse to See More Prominence in 2023

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The IE considers K1’s A$4.85 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elmo-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24342:1" rel="noopener">Elmo Software (ELO AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable as it is towards the high end of its valuation range of A$4.39-4.98.</li>
<li>K1 has received FIRB and US antitrust approval. The remaining key conditions are shareholders and court approval.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At the last close price and for the 23 February 2023 payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.9% and 10.9%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The IE considers K1’s A$4.85 offer for Elmo Software (ELO AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is towards the high end of its valuation range of A$4.39-4.98.
K1 has received FIRB and US antitrust approval. The remaining key conditions are shareholders and court approval.
This is a done deal. At the last close price and for the 23 February 2023 payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.9% and 10.9%, respectively.


Elmo Software (ELO AU)’s Scheme Meeting on 30 January

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elmo-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24342:1" rel="noopener">Elmo Software (ELO AU)</a> entered a scheme implementation deed (SID) with K1 at A$4.85 per share, a 100.4% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The key conditions are a shareholder and regulatory (FIRB &amp; US antitrust) approvals. The scheme meeting is likely in early 1Q23. </li>
<li>While not a knockout bid, it is attractive in the context of current conditions. Key shareholders will vote in favour. At the last close, the gross spread is 4.8%.</li>
</ul>



Elmo Software (ELO AU) entered a scheme implementation deed (SID) with K1 at A$4.85 per share, a 100.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
The key conditions are a shareholder and regulatory (FIRB &amp; US antitrust) approvals. The scheme meeting is likely in early 1Q23. 
While not a knockout bid, it is attractive in the context of current conditions. Key shareholders will vote in favour. At the last close, the gross spread is 4.8%.


Elmo Software Enters a SID with K1 at A$4.85

United States

Ceridian HCM Holding Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, develops human capital management software. Ceridian HCM Holding provides recruiting, staff monitoring, payroll processing, employee engagement, and human capital management technology services. Ceridian HCM Holding serves customers worldwide.

Ceridian HCM Holding (CDAY US)

S&P500 September 2021 Rebalance: 3 OUT, 3 IN - The Deletions May Be More Interesting

The S&P500 Quarterly Review is here. 3 in and 3 out. $14bn a side as of now. I expect the DELETIONS are more interesting though the headlines will...

Travis Lundy

HRTech Sector Series: Market Continues to Evolve While Post Covid Growth Begins to Slow Down

This is the Final of the HRTech sector series. With digitisation of workplaces, market is expected to see further advancement in categories such as...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

HRTech Sector Series: Hybrid Work Models and Metaverse to See More Prominence in 2023

This is the 3rd of HRTech sector series. The market in 2023 will witness more value coming from recent transformations such as Hybrid work models...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Elmo Software (ELO AU)’s Scheme Meeting on 30 January

This is a done deal. At the last close price and for the 23 February 2023 payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.9% and 10.9%, respectively.

Arun George

Elmo Software Enters a SID with K1 at A$4.85

While not a knockout bid, it is attractive in the context of current conditions. Key shareholders will vote in favour. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George