Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4, respectively--confirming the widespread patterns visible in the charts of each Sector’s constituents: bottoms and bases.We have highlighted these evolving set-ups over the past year, identifying: improving internals in energy (Aug. 12), then labeling it as a bottom the following week; also, reiterating copper nearly twelve months ago from today, recommending fertilizers (Dec. 13), and reiterating metals &amp; mining stocks (Dec. 18).Given the improving relative strength trends coupled with constructive patterns, we are upgrading both sectors to overweight from market weight.

Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4, respectively--confirming the widespread patterns visible in the charts of each Sector’s constituents: bottoms and bases.We have highlighted these evolving set-ups over the past year, identifying: improving internals in energy (Aug. 12), then labeling it as a bottom the following week; also, reiterating copper nearly twelve months ago from today, recommending fertilizers (Dec. 13), and reiterating metals &amp; mining stocks (Dec. 18).Given the improving relative strength trends coupled with constructive patterns, we are upgrading both sectors to overweight from market weight.

Upgrading U.S. Energy & Materials Sectors to Overweight

Potash Corp Of Saskatchewan / Technical Analysis

Breakouts in global fertilizer/potash stocks -- buy<ul><li>Breakouts from multi-year base and bottom patterns are the norm in North American names, including: AGU, CF, IPI, and POT. All four are buys.</li><li>Abroad, in Europe and EM, pullback opportunities are visible in OCI NV (OCI-NL), Incitec Pivot Ltd (IPL-AU), Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM), and Yara Int’l (YAR-NO), Here, too, all four are buys.</li><li>For ETF investors, the Global X Fertilizers/Potash ETF (SOIL) is this theme’s closest pure-play. The names highlighted above account for a 35.8% weighting.</li></ul>

Breakouts in global fertilizer/potash stocks -- buyBreakouts from multi-year base and bottom patterns are the norm in North American names, including: AGU, CF, IPI, and POT. All four are buys.Abroad, in Europe and EM, pullback opportunities are visible in OCI NV (OCI-NL), Incitec Pivot Ltd (IPL-AU), Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM), and Yara Int’l (YAR-NO), Here, too, all four are buys.For ETF investors, the Global X Fertilizers/Potash ETF (SOIL) is this theme’s closest pure-play. The names highlighted above account for a 35.8% weighting.

Global Fertilizer/Potash Stocks Are Breaking Out. Buy.

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As more macro funds shut their doors in despair, global rate and FX volatility has revived as the BoE turned hawkish - 2-yr gilt yields have soared 4x in three months, driving a short squeeze in sterling.</li>
<li>The Fed has reaffirmed the beginning of its balance sheet rundown and up to 100bps on rates by end 2018 – like the ‘surprise’ oil rally over the past month, a USD one may be imminent.</li>
<li>As in the UK, US trend GDP and productivity growth has slowed, and monetary policy can do very little to boost it…</li>
</ul>


As more macro funds shut their doors in despair, global rate and FX volatility has revived as the BoE turned hawkish - 2-yr gilt yields have soared 4x in three months, driving a short squeeze in sterling.
The Fed has reaffirmed the beginning of its balance sheet rundown and up to 100bps on rates by end 2018 – like the ‘surprise’ oil rally over the past month, a USD one may be imminent.
As in the UK, US trend GDP and productivity growth has slowed, and monetary policy can do very little to boost it…


Macro Funds Lose Faith, Precision Farming Revolution Looms

Asia-Focused Industry Research, Speeda Research

Speeda

Asia-Focused Industry Research

Speeda Research

Speeda Research analysts cover China, Japan, India and SEA on the latest trends and topics. We have analysts of diverse nationalities who are able to access information in their respective local languages to provide customers with comprehensive reports. With access to private company data in these regions, Speeda Research is also able to provide insights into niche sectors which are not usually covered by other parties. We are also able to undertake ad hoc company and industry research reports.

<h2>What are the Alternative Taxes and Tariffs Under Consideration and the Objective and the Nature of Each Option?</h2>In the US, the Trump Administration is considering a variety of options to contain the increasing trade deficit, particularly with regard to one the US’ trading partners, Mexico. In 2015, the United States had a USD67bn trade deficit with Mexico in automobiles and auto parts. USD50.5bn in vehicles were shipped to the US from Mexico in 2015. Total exports in auto parts for OEMs and the…

What are the Alternative Taxes and Tariffs Under Consideration and the Objective and the Nature of Each Option?In the US, the Trump Administration is considering a variety of options to contain the increasing trade deficit, particularly with regard to one the US’ trading partners, Mexico. In 2015, the United States had a USD67bn trade deficit with Mexico in automobiles and auto parts. USD50.5bn in vehicles were shipped to the US from Mexico in 2015. Total exports in auto parts for OEMs and the…

Trump Tax Impact on US-Mexico Auto Industry Could Have Greatest Impact on Mazda/Mitsubishi

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

The market is expecting US tariffs on Chinese steel exports wrongly believing Chinese are major steel   exporters to the US.Steel exports to US from China are low at about 2.9mt in November. If the US adds more steel tariffs, it will have little impact to the steel market or prices but it will possibly cause a retaliation by the Chinese.China only exports 26% of Global Steel Exports, far lower than the 50% of their total global steel production. Most of Chinese steel exports go to other Asian…

The market is expecting US tariffs on Chinese steel exports wrongly believing Chinese are major steel   exporters to the US.Steel exports to US from China are low at about 2.9mt in November. If the US adds more steel tariffs, it will have little impact to the steel market or prices but it will possibly cause a retaliation by the Chinese.China only exports 26% of Global Steel Exports, far lower than the 50% of their total global steel production. Most of Chinese steel exports go to other Asian…

Market Is Wrong on US Tariffs for Chinese Steel

United States

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and distributes nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products globally. The Company's principal products in the nitrogen segment are ammonia, urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, ammonium nitrate, diesel exhaust fluid and aqua ammonia. The principal products in the phosphate segment are diammonium phosphate and  monoammonium phosphate.

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Cf Industries Holdings (CF US)

Upgrading U.S. Energy & Materials Sectors to Overweight

Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4,...

Vermilion Research

Global Fertilizer/Potash Stocks Are Breaking Out. Buy.

Breakouts in global fertilizer/potash stocks -- buy Breakouts from multi-year base and bottom patterns are the norm in North American names,...

Vermilion Research

Macro Funds Lose Faith, Precision Farming Revolution Looms

As more macro funds shut their doors in despair, global rate and FX volatility has revived as the BoE turned hawkish - 2-yr gilt yields have...

Sean Maher

Trump Tax Impact on US-Mexico Auto Industry Could Have Greatest Impact on Mazda/Mitsubishi

What are the Alternative Taxes and Tariffs Under Consideration and the Objective and the Nature of Each Option?In the US, the Trump Administration...

Speeda Research

Market Is Wrong on US Tariffs for Chinese Steel

The market is expecting US tariffs on Chinese steel exports wrongly believing Chinese are major steel exporters to the US.Steel exports to US...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

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