External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain our construction stance on the uranium price, given the strong demand from nuclear power but uncertain uranium supply arising from the commencement of new mines (for details please refer to our sector report “Tight uranium supply continues to support a multi-year upcycle”).</li><li>We revise up our 2026E-27E earnings forecast by 9-11%, after incorporating higher uranium spot price assumptions.</li><li>We revise up our NPV-based TP to HK$3.67 from HK$2.42. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We maintain our construction stance on the uranium price, given the strong demand from nuclear power but uncertain uranium supply arising from the commencement of new mines (for details please refer to our sector report “Tight uranium supply continues to support a multi-year upcycle”).We revise up our 2026E-27E earnings forecast by 9-11%, after incorporating higher uranium spot price assumptions.We revise up our NPV-based TP to HK$3.67 from HK$2.42. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CGN Mining (1164 HK) - Further Upside Driven by Higher Uranium Price

<ul><li>We forecast CGN Mining to report a net loss of ~RMB68mn in 1H25E, due to (1) a one-off negative margin of the uranium trading business, and (2) a decrease in the spot uranium price in 1H25 that may affect the margin of JVs (mining segment).</li><li>We therefore slash our 2025E earnings forecast by 47% to RMB260mn to reflect the potential weak 1H25E results.</li><li>That said, we regard the impact as one-off, and expect the margin of trading business to return to positive in 2H25E. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We forecast CGN Mining to report a net loss of ~RMB68mn in 1H25E, due to (1) a one-off negative margin of the uranium trading business, and (2) a decrease in the spot uranium price in 1H25 that may affect the margin of JVs (mining segment).We therefore slash our 2025E earnings forecast by 47% to RMB260mn to reflect the potential weak 1H25E results.That said, we regard the impact as one-off, and expect the margin of trading business to return to positive in 2H25E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CGN Mining (1164 HK) - Potential Loss in 1H25E but Recovery in 2H25E

<ul><li>CGN Mining released a new pricing mechanism for the off-take agreement (2026-28) with its parent company.</li><li>Under the new mechanism, the proportion of fixed pricing will be reduced to 30% from 40% currently.</li><li>Most importantly, the fixed price in 2026E is set at US$94.22/lb (with 4.1% increment per year in 2027E/28E), which is way higher than the US$61.78/lb in 2023 (with annual increment of 3.5% in 2024/25) under the current mechanism. Besides, the new pricing is also ~18% higher than the latest industry contract price published by Cameco (CCJ US, NR). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CGN Mining released a new pricing mechanism for the off-take agreement (2026-28) with its parent company.Under the new mechanism, the proportion of fixed pricing will be reduced to 30% from 40% currently.Most importantly, the fixed price in 2026E is set at US$94.22/lb (with 4.1% increment per year in 2027E/28E), which is way higher than the US$61.78/lb in 2023 (with annual increment of 3.5% in 2024/25) under the current mechanism. Besides, the new pricing is also ~18% higher than the latest industry contract price published by Cameco (CCJ US, NR). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CGN Mining (1164 HK) - New Pricing Formula for Off-Take Agreement a Big Surprise

<ul><li>We expect to see positive share price momentum in the near term driven by the uranium spot price recovery, as CGN Mining’s earnings are sensitive to the spot price.</li><li>The spot price, which is currently trading at ~US$70/lb, remains at a ~13% discount to the contract price (US$80/lb) for which the market is a lot more sizeable.</li><li>With easing concerns on the war of tariff, we see chances of an improving interest for procurement in the spot market. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect to see positive share price momentum in the near term driven by the uranium spot price recovery, as CGN Mining’s earnings are sensitive to the spot price.The spot price, which is currently trading at ~US$70/lb, remains at a ~13% discount to the contract price (US$80/lb) for which the market is a lot more sizeable.With easing concerns on the war of tariff, we see chances of an improving interest for procurement in the spot market. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CGN Mining (1164 HK) - Uranium Price Gap Likely to Further Narrow, a Key Catalyst for CGN Mining

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Our bottom-up industry analysis suggests that nuclear power demand in 2026- 30 will likely see upside surprise on the back of power plant’s resumption in the US, with structural AI-driven demand growth in the long run (post-2030).</li><li>On the supply side, however, we forecast existing uranium mines’ output to peak in 2027, while new mines contribution will increase from 4% in 2027 to 17% in 2030, making the overall supply vulnerable to potential delay in commencement.</li><li>The analysis implies that uranium pricing will be wellsupported by the tight supply that could last longer-than-expected, which reaffirms our positive stance on the uranium sector. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our bottom-up industry analysis suggests that nuclear power demand in 2026- 30 will likely see upside surprise on the back of power plant’s resumption in the US, with structural AI-driven demand growth in the long run (post-2030).On the supply side, however, we forecast existing uranium mines’ output to peak in 2027, while new mines contribution will increase from 4% in 2027 to 17% in 2030, making the overall supply vulnerable to potential delay in commencement.The analysis implies that uranium pricing will be wellsupported by the tight supply that could last longer-than-expected, which reaffirms our positive stance on the uranium sector. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Materials - Tight uranium supply continues to support a multi-year upcycle; Positive on CGN Mining

Hong Kong

CGN Mining Company Ltd., through subsidiaries, operates businesses related to nuclear energy.  The Company supplies nuclear fuel, produces nuclear energy, and constructs plants for renewable energy such as wind power, hydroelectric and solar energy.

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CGN Mining (1164 HK)