Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.</li>
<li>Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.</li>
<li>General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.</li>
</ul>


Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.
Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.
General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.


Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> has received a further revised non-binding indicative proposal from EQT at A$22.50 per share, a 1.9% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$22.07 per share. </li>
<li>The Board will find it increasingly challenging to dismiss EQT, particularly as peers have materially de-rated since EQT’s first offer (1 July) and the 45.2% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>While the revised offer implies a discount to peer multiples, it is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. The Board will be under pressure to grant due diligence. </li>
</ul>



Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) has received a further revised non-binding indicative proposal from EQT at A$22.50 per share, a 1.9% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$22.07 per share. 
The Board will find it increasingly challenging to dismiss EQT, particularly as peers have materially de-rated since EQT’s first offer (1 July) and the 45.2% premium to the undisturbed price. 
While the revised offer implies a discount to peer multiples, it is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. The Board will be under pressure to grant due diligence. 


Perpetual (PPT AU): EQT’s Further Revised NBIO Amps the Pressure on the Board

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> has received a revised non-binding indicative proposal from EQT at A$22.07 per share, a 2.0% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$21.64 per share. </li>
<li>While the revised offer remains below the Board’s rumoured floor price of A$25.00, it is reasonable compared to historical ranges and is a 42.4% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>Given the low premium to the earlier rejected offer, the Board is highly likely to reject the revised offer. Nevertheless, the Board will be under pressure to engage.  </li>
</ul>



Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) has received a revised non-binding indicative proposal from EQT at A$22.07 per share, a 2.0% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$21.64 per share. 
While the revised offer remains below the Board’s rumoured floor price of A$25.00, it is reasonable compared to historical ranges and is a 42.4% premium to the undisturbed price. 
Given the low premium to the earlier rejected offer, the Board is highly likely to reject the revised offer. Nevertheless, the Board will be under pressure to engage.  


Perpetual (PPT AU): EQT Returns with a Revised NBIO at A$22.07

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 26th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD45.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Atlas Arteria, Aristocrat Leisure, Santos, AGL Energy, Computershare.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jun 26th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD45.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Atlas Arteria, Aristocrat Leisure, Santos, AGL Energy, Computershare.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 26th): Atlas Arteria, Aristocrat Leisure, Santos, AGL Energy

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clearview-wealth-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19733:1" rel="noopener">Clearview Wealth (CVW AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zurich-insurance-group-ag-6200ef7e-59a6-4d82-87df-6dfcaec68274" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27910:1" rel="noopener">Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN SW)</a>’s scheme offer of A$0.65 fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation range of A$0.625 to A$0.764.</li>
<li>The offer is arguably light, as the implied P/EV multiple is at a discount relative to precedent transactions and peers. </li>
<li>However, the scheme vote is low risk due to Crescent Capital’s support. At the last close and for a 20 August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.6%/9.6%. </li>
</ul>


The Clearview Wealth (CVW AU) IE considers Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN SW)’s scheme offer of A$0.65 fair and reasonable, as it falls within its valuation range of A$0.625 to A$0.764.
The offer is arguably light, as the implied P/EV multiple is at a discount relative to precedent transactions and peers. 
However, the scheme vote is low risk due to Crescent Capital’s support. At the last close and for a 20 August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.6%/9.6%. 


ClearView Wealth (CVW AU): Scheme Vote on 27 July

Australia

Challenger Limited is an investment management firm  The Company offers annuities and other retirement income products as well as manages assets for domestic and international clients.

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Challenger Ltd (CGF AU)

Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

New data is of concern for bank profit. Housing prices, business index, retail sales, suggest a worsening backdrop. Banks' credit costs in the most...

Daniel Tabbush

Perpetual (PPT AU): EQT’s Further Revised NBIO Amps the Pressure on the Board

The Board will find it increasingly challenging to dismiss EQT, particularly as peers have materially de-rated since EQT’s first offer (1 July) and...

Arun George

Perpetual (PPT AU): EQT Returns with a Revised NBIO at A$22.07

Given the low premium to the earlier rejected offer, the Board is highly likely to reject the revised offer. Nevertheless, the Board will be under...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 26th): Atlas Arteria, Aristocrat Leisure, Santos, AGL Energy

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Atlas Arteria, Aristocrat Leisure, Santos, AGL...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ClearView Wealth (CVW AU): Scheme Vote on 27 July

The offer is arguably light, as the implied P/EV multiple is at a discount relative to precedent transactions and peers. However, the scheme vote...

Arun George

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