Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices decline 4.6% WoW, led by a weak outlook in steel, as lower-than-expected steel production continues to plague China (Dec production averaging 816 mnt annualized Vs 950 mnt). </li>
<li>Massive restock at ports continues, with over 160 million tons (45 days of consumption vs. historic average of 30 days). Inventory with mills is above average at over 25 days. </li>
<li>We only like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> in the iron ore space (read: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-q2fy26-concall-record-production-quarterly-49-ocf-yield-annualized" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:218256" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q2FY26 Concall: Record Production Quarterly, 49% OCF Yield Annualized</a> ).</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices decline 4.6% WoW, led by a weak outlook in steel, as lower-than-expected steel production continues to plague China (Dec production averaging 816 mnt annualized Vs 950 mnt). 
Massive restock at ports continues, with over 160 million tons (45 days of consumption vs. historic average of 30 days). Inventory with mills is above average at over 25 days. 
We only like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) in the iron ore space (read: Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q2FY26 Concall: Record Production Quarterly, 49% OCF Yield Annualized ).


Iron Ore: Hanging By A Thread At 100 USD/Ton, When Will Massive Restock At Ports Reverse?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 30th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD33.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Lotus Resources, National Australia Bank, BHP, Perseus Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 30th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD33.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Lotus Resources, National Australia Bank, BHP, Perseus Mining.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 30th): Northern Star Resources, Lotus Resources

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 12th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD29.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in JB Hi-Fi, National Australia Bank, Bluescope Steel, Scentre, Metcash.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 12th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD29.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in JB Hi-Fi, National Australia Bank, Bluescope Steel, Scentre, Metcash.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 12th): JB Hi-Fi, National Australia Bank, Bluescope Steel, Scentre

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 5th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD28.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, ALS, JB Hi-Fi, WiseTech Global, Woolworths.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 5th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD28.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, ALS, JB Hi-Fi, WiseTech Global, Woolworths.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 5th): Aristocrat Leisure, ALS, JB Hi-Fi, WiseTech Global, Woolworths

<ul>
<li>There were further updates on the Simandou iron ore mine, <a href="https://www.mining.com/web/iron-ore-shakeup-begins-as-simandous-first-boat-heads-for-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">which commenced operations</a><a href="https://www.mining.com/web/iron-ore-shakeup-begins-as-simandous-first-boat-heads-for-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> </a>last week, igniting bearish sentiment and taking iron ore prices down 3% WoW to 103 USD/ton.</li>
<li>Demand, though, for higher-grade material remains strong, resulting in a widening spread between 65 and 62 Fe to almost 16 USD/ton (from 12-13 USD/ton a week ago). </li>
<li>We favor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> for its high growth profile and potential to increase production from 1.5 million tons to around 10 million tons. </li>
</ul>


There were further updates on the Simandou iron ore mine, which commenced operations last week, igniting bearish sentiment and taking iron ore prices down 3% WoW to 103 USD/ton.
Demand, though, for higher-grade material remains strong, resulting in a widening spread between 65 and 62 Fe to almost 16 USD/ton (from 12-13 USD/ton a week ago). 
We favor Fenix Resources (FEX AU) for its high growth profile and potential to increase production from 1.5 million tons to around 10 million tons. 


Iron Ore 65-62 Spread Widens, Despite The Commencement of Simandou Shipments

Australia

champion Iron Limited is a exploration company. The Company acquires, explores and develops properties for iron ore deposits.

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Champion Iron (CIA AU)

Iron Ore: Hanging By A Thread At 100 USD/Ton, When Will Massive Restock At Ports Reverse?

Elevated port and mill inventories, along with soft apparent Chinese demand, weigh on iron ore. Nevertheless, we identify value in Fenix Resources...

Sameer Taneja

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 30th): Northern Star Resources, Lotus Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Lotus Resources, National...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 12th): JB Hi-Fi, National Australia Bank, Bluescope Steel, Scentre

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in JB Hi-Fi, National Australia Bank, Bluescope Steel,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 5th): Aristocrat Leisure, ALS, JB Hi-Fi, WiseTech Global, Woolworths

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, ALS, JB Hi-Fi, WiseTech Global,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Iron Ore 65-62 Spread Widens, Despite The Commencement of Simandou Shipments

Updates on Simandou iron ore ramp-up and other key drivers; we name Fenix Resources (FEX AU) our top sector pick and outline the investment case.

Sameer Taneja

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