Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We have revised up our core profit forecasts over the next three years by an average of 11% per year, with a 45% increase for 2025E to Bt28.9bn, reflecting a higher gross profit margin (GPM) assumption.</li><li>This is based on the better-than- expected GPM in 1Q25 and continued strong momentum in 2Q25E, supported by rising swine prices in Vietnam, the Philippines, Cambodia, and Thailand, as well as lower raw material costs.</li><li>Valuation metrics: We have upgraded our current fundamental view from overvalued to neutral, while maintaining a neutral view on the long-term growth prospects and technical outlook.</li></ul>

We have revised up our core profit forecasts over the next three years by an average of 11% per year, with a 45% increase for 2025E to Bt28.9bn, reflecting a higher gross profit margin (GPM) assumption.This is based on the better-than- expected GPM in 1Q25 and continued strong momentum in 2Q25E, supported by rising swine prices in Vietnam, the Philippines, Cambodia, and Thailand, as well as lower raw material costs.Valuation metrics: We have upgraded our current fundamental view from overvalued to neutral, while maintaining a neutral view on the long-term growth prospects and technical outlook.

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 2025E Core Profit Forecast Raised by 45% Due to Higher-Than-Expected GPM

<ul><li>1Q25 core profit surged 23-fold YoY and rose 31% QoQ, supported by higher swine prices in Vietnam, the Philippines, Cambodia, and Thailand, along with lower raw material costs.</li><li>These resulted in YoY and QoQ improvement in the gross profit margin (GPM), which also exceeded expectations.</li><li>Based on the valuation metrics, the fundamental view has been revised to overvalued (previously neutral), while we maintain a neutral outlook on the long-term growth potential and upgrade the tactical view to neutral (previously limited upside risk). </li></ul>

1Q25 core profit surged 23-fold YoY and rose 31% QoQ, supported by higher swine prices in Vietnam, the Philippines, Cambodia, and Thailand, along with lower raw material costs.These resulted in YoY and QoQ improvement in the gross profit margin (GPM), which also exceeded expectations.Based on the valuation metrics, the fundamental view has been revised to overvalued (previously neutral), while we maintain a neutral outlook on the long-term growth potential and upgrade the tactical view to neutral (previously limited upside risk). 

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 1Q25 Earnings Grew YoY and QoQ...

<ul><li>CPF Investment Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of CPF) acquired 6.02bn shares in C.P. Pokphand Co., Ltd. (CPP), equivalent to 23.8% of the total sold shares, for a total value of USD1.1bn, from ITOCHU Corporation.</li><li>The transaction aims to enhance management flexibility. (Source: SET)</li><li>The funding source will be entirely from borrowings (100%).</li></ul>

CPF Investment Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of CPF) acquired 6.02bn shares in C.P. Pokphand Co., Ltd. (CPP), equivalent to 23.8% of the total sold shares, for a total value of USD1.1bn, from ITOCHU Corporation.The transaction aims to enhance management flexibility. (Source: SET)The funding source will be entirely from borrowings (100%).

CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS Plc. - Increased Shareholding in CPP by 23.8% to 100%

<ul><li>1Q25E core profit is expected to have grown by 473% YoY and 58% QoQ, supported by rising swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam.</li><li>Although swine prices in China remain weak, the business is still expected to remain profitable, while lower raw material costs should have helped improve margins both YoY and QoQ.</li><li>The valuation metrics reflect a neutral view on the current fundamentals, with an average long-term growth outlook and very limited upside risk from a tactical perspective.</li></ul>

1Q25E core profit is expected to have grown by 473% YoY and 58% QoQ, supported by rising swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam.Although swine prices in China remain weak, the business is still expected to remain profitable, while lower raw material costs should have helped improve margins both YoY and QoQ.The valuation metrics reflect a neutral view on the current fundamentals, with an average long-term growth outlook and very limited upside risk from a tactical perspective.

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 1Q25E Core Profit Growth Projected at +473% YoY and +58% QoQ

<ul><li>4Q24 and 2024 core profit grew by 333% and 237% YoY, respectively.</li><li>The resulted exceeded expectations due to a better- than-expected margin improvement, driven by higher swine prices and lower raw material costs.</li><li>The 1Q25E expects profit is expected to increase YoY and QoQ.</li></ul>

4Q24 and 2024 core profit grew by 333% and 237% YoY, respectively.The resulted exceeded expectations due to a better- than-expected margin improvement, driven by higher swine prices and lower raw material costs.The 1Q25E expects profit is expected to increase YoY and QoQ.

Charoen Pokphand Foods - Upbeat 4Q24 and 2024 Core Profit; 1Q25E to Grow Further

Thailand

Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited produces a wide range of food products. The Company's products include chicken, pork, shrimp, fish, eggs. and duck.

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Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF-R TB)

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 2025E Core Profit Forecast Raised by 45% Due to Higher-Than-Expected GPM

We reiterate our Neutral rating with a new fair value of Bt25.50 based on the earnings yield method, with a required return of 13.1% (previously...

Krungthai XSpring

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 1Q25 Earnings Grew YoY and QoQ...

1Q25 core profit surged 23-fold YoY and rose 31% QoQ, supported by higher swine prices in Vietnam, the Philippines, Cambodia, and Thailand, along...

Krungthai XSpring

CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS Plc. - Increased Shareholding in CPP by 23.8% to 100%

CPF Investment Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of CPF) acquired 6.02bn shares in C.P. Pokphand Co., Ltd. (CPP), equivalent to 23.8% of the total...

Krungthai XSpring

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 1Q25E Core Profit Growth Projected at +473% YoY and +58% QoQ

The valuation metrics reflect a neutral view on the current fundamentals, with an average long-term growth outlook and very limited upside risk...

Krungthai XSpring

Charoen Pokphand Foods - Upbeat 4Q24 and 2024 Core Profit; 1Q25E to Grow Further

The resulted exceeded expectations due to a better- than-expected margin improvement, driven by higher swine prices and lower raw material costs.

Krungthai XSpring

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