Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Thai and Vietnamese swine prices have recently declined during the monsoon season, with additional pressure from ASF outbreaks reported in parts of Vietnam, the Philippines, and Cambodia, prompting accelerated selling and weighing on prices.</li><li>As a result, 3Q25E gross margins are expected to soften QoQ (despite a continued QoQ decline in feed raw material costs), following what is likely the peak margin in 2Q25E, driven by strong swine and broiler prices alongside easing input costs.</li><li>2Q25E profit is expected to have grown both YoY and QoQ, with earnings announcements scheduled between August 8-14. </li></ul>

Thai and Vietnamese swine prices have recently declined during the monsoon season, with additional pressure from ASF outbreaks reported in parts of Vietnam, the Philippines, and Cambodia, prompting accelerated selling and weighing on prices.As a result, 3Q25E gross margins are expected to soften QoQ (despite a continued QoQ decline in feed raw material costs), following what is likely the peak margin in 2Q25E, driven by strong swine and broiler prices alongside easing input costs.2Q25E profit is expected to have grown both YoY and QoQ, with earnings announcements scheduled between August 8-14. 

Industry Update: Agribusiness and Food - AUGUST 7, 2025

<ul><li>The US tariff measure requiring Thailand to increase imports of certain agricultural products from the US (details and procedures are not yet available, but the approach is expected to be similar to the Thailand-Australia FTA, which sets import quotas and gradually reduces tariff rates) may include frozen swine products and animal feed ingredients such as corn and soybean meal.</li><li>We initially assess the net impact to be neutral for large integrated meat producers but negative for small- to mid-sized livestock farmers.</li><li>Overall, we expect a slightly positive impact on TFG (Neutral; FV=Bt5.10), a neutral impact on BTG (Neutral; FV=Bt17.50), a slightly negative impact on CPF (Neutral; FV=Bt21.50), and net positive impact for sole broiler producers like GFPT (Neutral; FV=Bt9.20).</li></ul>

The US tariff measure requiring Thailand to increase imports of certain agricultural products from the US (details and procedures are not yet available, but the approach is expected to be similar to the Thailand-Australia FTA, which sets import quotas and gradually reduces tariff rates) may include frozen swine products and animal feed ingredients such as corn and soybean meal.We initially assess the net impact to be neutral for large integrated meat producers but negative for small- to mid-sized livestock farmers.Overall, we expect a slightly positive impact on TFG (Neutral; FV=Bt5.10), a neutral impact on BTG (Neutral; FV=Bt17.50), a slightly negative impact on CPF (Neutral; FV=Bt21.50), and net positive impact for sole broiler producers like GFPT (Neutral; FV=Bt9.20).

Industry Update: US Tariffs on Thai Livestock - AUGUST 4, 2025

<ul><li>Exports in June grew by 15.5% YoY, supporting a 15.0% YoY expansion in 1H25.</li><li>We believe this momentum was not solely driven by pent-up demand, but also by trade diversion, which suggests the positive trend could continue into 2H25E.</li><li>We recommend speculative trading in laggard export-related and industrial estate stocks, namely CCET, CPF, STA, TU, HANA, STGT, BTG, and NER</li></ul>

Exports in June grew by 15.5% YoY, supporting a 15.0% YoY expansion in 1H25.We believe this momentum was not solely driven by pent-up demand, but also by trade diversion, which suggests the positive trend could continue into 2H25E.We recommend speculative trading in laggard export-related and industrial estate stocks, namely CCET, CPF, STA, TU, HANA, STGT, BTG, and NER

Economic Update – Exports & Imports -JULY 29, 2025

<ul><li>The SET Index today needs to rebound; otherwise, it risks falling further to 1,163 points over the coming week.</li><li>Today’s support levels are at 1,180/1,176 points, with the resistance at 1,200/1,205 points.</li><li>External factors are slightly positive, following the US announcement of new trade agreements with three Asian countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan). </li></ul>

The SET Index today needs to rebound; otherwise, it risks falling further to 1,163 points over the coming week.Today’s support levels are at 1,180/1,176 points, with the resistance at 1,200/1,205 points.External factors are slightly positive, following the US announcement of new trade agreements with three Asian countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan). 

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up today, with the resistance levels at 1,217/1,221 points and the support at 1,195/1,184 points.</li><li>External factors are viewed as slightly positive, as the likelihood of the US and China imposing sharply higher tariffs on each other has decreased.</li><li>However, risks remain from ongoing negotiations between the US and the EU, as well as the possibility of more targeted US tariff measures. </li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up today, with the resistance levels at 1,217/1,221 points and the support at 1,195/1,184 points.External factors are viewed as slightly positive, as the likelihood of the US and China imposing sharply higher tariffs on each other has decreased.However, risks remain from ongoing negotiations between the US and the EU, as well as the possibility of more targeted US tariff measures. 

Thailand

Charoen Pokphand Foods operates a vertically integrated agro-industrial and food business, encompassing animal feed production, commercial animal breeding, farm operations, and manufacturing of food and ready-to-eat products. The company's key products include animal feed, livestock (swine, broiler, layer, duck), aquaculture (shrimp, fish), and various processed meat and food items. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was founded in 1978.

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Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB)

Industry Update: Agribusiness and Food - AUGUST 7, 2025

Thai and Vietnamese swine prices have recently declined during the monsoon season, with additional pressure from ASF outbreaks reported in parts of...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update: US Tariffs on Thai Livestock - AUGUST 4, 2025

US tariffs on Thai livestock in case Thailand opens up imports of certain agricultural products from the US at a 0% tariff rate

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update – Exports & Imports -JULY 29, 2025

We recommend speculative trading in laggard export-related and industrial estate stocks, namely CCET, CPF, STA, TU, HANA, STGT, BTG, and NER

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - JULY 23, 2025

External factors are slightly positive, following the US announcement of new trade agreements with three Asian countries (Indonesia, the...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - JULY 22, 2025

The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up today, with the resistance levels at 1,217/1,221 points and the support at 1,195/1,184 points.

Krungthai XSpring

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