TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Comcast and Charter have had big pullbacks in the past month, leading to an attractive setup into earnings with valuations having compressed significantly over transitory weakness in broadband due to tough COVID comps and overstated competitive concerns. We'd be buyers of both. <div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Comcast and Charter have had big pullbacks in the past month, leading to an attractive setup into earnings with valuations having compressed significantly over transitory weakness in broadband due to tough COVID comps and overstated competitive concerns. We'd be buyers of both. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the September review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> that will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.There are 3 inclusion -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/match-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25903:1" rel="noopener">Match Group Inc (MTCH US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ceridian-hcm-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brown-brown-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19532:1" rel="noopener">Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US)</a>, while the exclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unum-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2521:1" rel="noopener">Unum Group (UNM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-oilwell-varco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3046:1" rel="noopener">National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perrigo-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:869:1" rel="noopener">Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US)</a>.There are inclusions/exclusions to the S&amp;P MidCap 400 and the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 as well.The stocks with the largest impact from passive buying are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/match-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25903:1" rel="noopener">Match Group Inc (MTCH US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tandem-diabetes-care-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20893:1" rel="noopener">Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brown-brown-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19532:1" rel="noopener">Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US)</a>, UniqureNV (QURE US) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ceridian-hcm-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US)</a>.The stocks with the largest impact from passive selling are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-insurance-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19222:1" rel="noopener">United Insurance Holdings (UIHC US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/team-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6811:1" rel="noopener">Team Inc (TISI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unum-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2521:1" rel="noopener">Unum Group (UNM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perrigo-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:869:1" rel="noopener">Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-oilwell-varco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3046:1" rel="noopener">National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)</a>.There are a lot of other stocks that will have a lot to buy/sell from passive funds due to changes in the number of shares and free float and due to funding flows.

On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the September review for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) that will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.There are 3 inclusion -  Match Group Inc (MTCH US), Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US) and Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US), while the exclusions are Unum Group (UNM US), National Oilwell Varco (NOV US) and Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US).There are inclusions/exclusions to the S&amp;P MidCap 400 and the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 as well.The stocks with the largest impact from passive buying are Match Group Inc (MTCH US), Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US), Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US), UniqureNV (QURE US) and Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US).The stocks with the largest impact from passive selling are United Insurance Holdings (UIHC US), Team Inc (TISI US), Unum Group (UNM US), Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV US).There are a lot of other stocks that will have a lot to buy/sell from passive funds due to changes in the number of shares and free float and due to funding flows.

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Swiping Right on Match

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Converge ICT Solutions Inc / Equity Capital Markets

Converge ICT (CICT) is looking to raise around US$600m in its Philippines listing.Converge ICT is the largest high-speed fixed broadband operator in the Philippines, by high-speed residential fixed broadband subscriptions. It also claims to be the fastest growing fixed broadband operator in both the residential and enterprise market.CICT’s revenue has grown at 69% CAGR over FY16-19, with growth being led by its residential business whose revenue has increased at 95% CAGR. Gross profit grew at 56% CAGR, EBITDA at 91% CAGR and Net profit at 60% CAGR. In other words, most of the revenue growth has flowed down to the bottom line. I have covered the company background, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuation in my earlier reports, links to which are below. In this note, I’ll talk about deal dynamics and recent updates from the prospectus.Links to my previous notes:<ul>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/converge-ict-pre-ipo-fast-growth-low-penetration-covid-resistant" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Converge ICT Pre-IPO - Fast growth, low penetration, COVID resistant</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/converge-ict-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-not-a-clear-cut-winner" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Converge ICT Pre-IPO - Peer comparison - Not a clear cut winner</a></li>
</ul><ul><li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/converge-ict-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Converge ICT Pre-IPO - Thoughts on valuation</a></li></ul>

Converge ICT (CICT) is looking to raise around US$600m in its Philippines listing.Converge ICT is the largest high-speed fixed broadband operator in the Philippines, by high-speed residential fixed broadband subscriptions. It also claims to be the fastest growing fixed broadband operator in both the residential and enterprise market.CICT’s revenue has grown at 69% CAGR over FY16-19, with growth being led by its residential business whose revenue has increased at 95% CAGR. Gross profit grew at 56% CAGR, EBITDA at 91% CAGR and Net profit at 60% CAGR. In other words, most of the revenue growth has flowed down to the bottom line. I have covered the company background, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuation in my earlier reports, links to which are below. In this note, I’ll talk about deal dynamics and recent updates from the prospectus.Links to my previous notes:
Converge ICT Pre-IPO - Fast growth, low penetration, COVID resistant
Converge ICT Pre-IPO - Peer comparison - Not a clear cut winner
Converge ICT Pre-IPO - Thoughts on valuation

Converge ICT IPO - More Customers, Lower ARPU

Converge ICT aims to raise around US$500+m in its Philippines listing.Converge ICT (CICT) is the largest high-speed fixed broadband operator in the Philippines, by high-speed residential fixed broadband subscriptions. It has a 54% market share as of Mar 2020, according to MPA. It also claims to be the fastest growing fixed broadband operator in both the residential and enterprise market.CICT owns and operates an end-to-end fiber network in the Philippines, with over 30,000 km of fiber as of Mar 2020. Its network covers 200 cities and municipalities across Luzon. As of Mar 2020, it reached approximately 4.1m homes.CICT’s revenue has grown at 69% CAGR over FY16-19, with growth being led by its residential business whose revenue has increased at 95% CAGR over the same time frame. Gross profit grew at 56% CAGR, EBITDA at 91% CAGR and Net profit at 60% CAGR. In other words, most of the revenue growth has flowed down to the bottom line. I have covered the company background and undertaken a peer comparison in my earlier reports, links to which are below. In this note, I’ll talk about earnings forecast and valuations.Links to my previous notes:<ul>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/converge-ict-pre-ipo-fast-growth-low-penetration-covid-resistant" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Converge ICT Pre-IPO - Fast growth, low penetration, COVID resistant</a></li>
<li dir="ltr"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/43808/Converge%20ICT%20Pre-IPO%20-%20Peer%20Comparison%20-%20Not%20a%20Clear%20Cut%20Winner" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Converge ICT Pre-IPO - Peer comparison - Not a clear cut winner</a></li>
</ul>

Converge ICT aims to raise around US$500+m in its Philippines listing.Converge ICT (CICT) is the largest high-speed fixed broadband operator in the Philippines, by high-speed residential fixed broadband subscriptions. It has a 54% market share as of Mar 2020, according to MPA. It also claims to be the fastest growing fixed broadband operator in both the residential and enterprise market.CICT owns and operates an end-to-end fiber network in the Philippines, with over 30,000 km of fiber as of Mar 2020. Its network covers 200 cities and municipalities across Luzon. As of Mar 2020, it reached approximately 4.1m homes.CICT’s revenue has grown at 69% CAGR over FY16-19, with growth being led by its residential business whose revenue has increased at 95% CAGR over the same time frame. Gross profit grew at 56% CAGR, EBITDA at 91% CAGR and Net profit at 60% CAGR. In other words, most of the revenue growth has flowed down to the bottom line. I have covered the company background and undertaken a peer comparison in my earlier reports, links to which are below. In this note, I’ll talk about earnings forecast and valuations.Links to my previous notes:
Converge ICT Pre-IPO - Fast growth, low penetration, COVID resistant
Converge ICT Pre-IPO - Peer comparison - Not a clear cut winner


Converge ICT Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow. ;)<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow. ;)Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Corona Virus Selloff Opportunities: Disney

United States

Charter Communications, Inc. operates as a cable telecommunications company. The Company offers cable broadcasting, internet, voice, and mass media services. Charter Communications serves customers in the United States.

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Charter Communications (CHTR US)

US Cable: Good Entry Point

Comcast and Charter have had big pullbacks in the past month, leading to an attractive setup with valuations having compressed due to tough COVID...

Aaron Gabin

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Swiping Right on Match

There are 3 changes to the S&P500 that will be implemented at the close on 17 Sep. There are changes to the S&P400 & S&P600 as well. There will be...

Brian Freitas

Converge ICT IPO - More Customers, Lower ARPU

Converge ICT (CICT) aims to raise around US$600m in its Philippines listing. Converge ICT is the largest high-speed fixed broadband operator in the...

Sumeet Singh

Converge ICT Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

Converge ICT aims to raise around US$500m in its Philippines listing. Converge ICT (CICT) is the largest high-speed fixed broadband operator in...

Sumeet Singh

TMT Corona Virus Selloff Opportunities: Disney

We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow....

Aaron Gabin

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