Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US base oils demand likely to stay muted.</li><li>Expectations of sufficient supplies, downward-pressure on prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at year-end incentivize buyers to trim stocks.</li><li>Outright demand likely to stay weak even as recent fire at major blending plant triggers shift in consumption to other blenders, boosting their base oils requirements.</li></ul>

US base oils demand likely to stay muted.Expectations of sufficient supplies, downward-pressure on prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at year-end incentivize buyers to trim stocks.Outright demand likely to stay weak even as recent fire at major blending plant triggers shift in consumption to other blenders, boosting their base oils requirements.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 September

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trade-desk-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26467:1" rel="noopener">Trade Desk (TTD)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA (NVDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft (MSFT US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron (CVX)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in September. There are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index too.
The round-trip trade is US$19.6bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US). 
The largest flows are expected in AppLovin (APP), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Trade Desk (TTD), NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT US), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

<ul><li>Global base oils prices mostly fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Price-differentials fall more steeply in Europe and US than in Asia, pointing to weaker supply-demand fundamentals in those markets.</li><li>Even with lower differentials, global base oils margins hold at levels that incentivize refiners to maintain firm output.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices mostly fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.Price-differentials fall more steeply in Europe and US than in Asia, pointing to weaker supply-demand fundamentals in those markets.Even with lower differentials, global base oils margins hold at levels that incentivize refiners to maintain firm output.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 8 September

<ul><li>FOB Asia Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus US export prices so far in Q3 2025.</li><li>Asia’s firm prices make arbitrage to move surplus supplies to Americas hard to work.</li><li>Closed arbitrage complicates removal of surplus supplies, raising prospect of build-up of supplies in Asia-Pacific market.</li></ul>

FOB Asia Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus US export prices so far in Q3 2025.Asia’s firm prices make arbitrage to move surplus supplies to Americas hard to work.Closed arbitrage complicates removal of surplus supplies, raising prospect of build-up of supplies in Asia-Pacific market.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 8 September

<ul><li>US base oils export-price premium to VGO falls close to lowest level this year.</li><li>Price-premiums fall to bottom of relatively narrow range since late last year.</li><li>Narrow price-range over extended period suggested that any pressure from surplus supply remained manageable during that period.</li></ul>

US base oils export-price premium to VGO falls close to lowest level this year.Price-premiums fall to bottom of relatively narrow range since late last year.Narrow price-range over extended period suggested that any pressure from surplus supply remained manageable during that period.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 8 September

United States

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

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Chevron Corp (CVX US)

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 September

US base oils demand likely to stay muted. Expectations of sufficient supplies, downward-pressure on prices and seasonal slowdown in consumption at...

Base Oil News

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance: Changes to Drive US$19.6bn Flow

Constituent changes to the S&P500 Index and capping changes result in a round-trip trade of US$19.6bn. AppLovin, Robinhood and Emcor will have more...

Brian Freitas

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 8 September

Global base oils prices mostly fall versus feedstock/competing fuel prices. Price-differentials fall more steeply in Europe and US than in Asia,...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 8 September

FOB Asia Group II base oils prices hold unusually firm versus US export prices so far in Q3 2025. Asia’s firm prices make arbitrage to move...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 8 September

US base oils export-price premium to VGO falls close to lowest level this year. Price-premiums fall to bottom of relatively narrow range since...

Base Oil News

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