Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US base oils demand could get support from expectations of steady-to-higher prices following surge in crude oil prices.</li><li>Weakening supply-demand fundamentals previously put pressure on adjustment in base oils prices to reflect that dynamic.</li><li>Concern about exposure to lower prices incentivized buyers to limit their procurement plans.</li></ul>

US base oils demand could get support from expectations of steady-to-higher prices following surge in crude oil prices.Weakening supply-demand fundamentals previously put pressure on adjustment in base oils prices to reflect that dynamic.Concern about exposure to lower prices incentivized buyers to limit their procurement plans.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 06/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.6m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.4m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>The EIA reported a 109 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 108 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 5.4% above the five-year average but 8.6% below year-ago levels.</li>
<li>Shell targets 12 MMT of new LNG capacity by 2030, while TotalEnergies partners with Mistral AI to enhance its low-carbon, multi-energy strategy using artificial intelligence.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 06/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.6m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.4m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
The EIA reported a 109 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 108 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 5.4% above the five-year average but 8.6% below year-ago levels.
Shell targets 12 MMT of new LNG capacity by 2030, while TotalEnergies partners with Mistral AI to enhance its low-carbon, multi-energy strategy using artificial intelligence.


[ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade is US$17.4bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27537:1" rel="noopener">Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visa-inc-class-a-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8707:1" rel="noopener">Visa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/live-nation-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6893:1" rel="noopener">Live Nation Entertainment</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tko-group-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40463:1" rel="noopener">TKO Group Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omnicom-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15775:1" rel="noopener">Omnicom Group</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) in June but there are capping changes for the Select Sector indices and the Equal Weight Index.
The round-trip trade is US$17.4bn with a big chunk from the Equal Weight Index, Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US) and Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US). 
The largest flows are expected in Exxon Mobil, Alphabet, Chevron Corp, Visa, Blackstone, Live Nation Entertainment, Meta, Broadcom, TKO Group Holdings, Dell Technologies and Omnicom Group.


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

<ul><li>Global base oils prices mostly hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially in Europe and Asia.</li><li>Firm price differentials point to strong supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to supply more volumes for those markets.</li><li>Demand would need to hold firm to absorb any such pick-up in supplies.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices mostly hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially in Europe and Asia.Firm price differentials point to strong supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to supply more volumes for those markets.Demand would need to hold firm to absorb any such pick-up in supplies.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 June

<ul><li>US domestic Group I SN 500 price rises to premium to Group II N600 price in May 2025 for first time in more than four years.</li><li>In Middle East, CFR UAE Group I SN 500 price discount to Group II N500 shrinks to narrowest in more than seven months.</li><li>In Asia, FOB Asia Group I SN 500 price strengthens vs Group II N500 in May 2025 to firmest level in six months.</li></ul>

US domestic Group I SN 500 price rises to premium to Group II N600 price in May 2025 for first time in more than four years.In Middle East, CFR UAE Group I SN 500 price discount to Group II N500 shrinks to narrowest in more than seven months.In Asia, FOB Asia Group I SN 500 price strengthens vs Group II N500 in May 2025 to firmest level in six months.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 2 June

United States

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

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Chevron Corp (CVX US)

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June

US base oils demand could get support from expectations of steady-to-higher prices following surge in crude oil prices. Weakening supply-demand...

Base Oil News

[ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook

US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas storage levels are above 5-year average....

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices and Equal Weight Index will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.4bn. There are some stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 June

Global base oils prices mostly hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially in Europe and Asia. Firm price differentials point to...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 2 June

US domestic Group I SN 500 price rises to premium to Group II N600 price in May 2025 for first time in more than four years. In Middle East, CFR...

Base Oil News

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June

US base oils demand could get support from expectations of steady-to-higher prices following surge in crude oil prices. Weakening supply-demand...

Base Oil News

[ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook

​US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas storage levels are above 5-year average....

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: US$17bn Round-Trip Trade

Capping changes for the Select Sector indices and Equal Weight Index will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.4bn. There are some stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 June

Global base oils prices mostly hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially in Europe and Asia. Firm price differentials point to...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 2 June

US domestic Group I SN 500 price rises to premium to Group II N600 price in May 2025 for first time in more than four years. In Middle East, CFR...

Base Oil News

US crude inventories fell more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas storage levels are above 5-year average....