Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ExxonMobil’s Q3 revenue is expected to rise 6.3% YoY and 3.7% QoQ but its EPS is anticipated to fall 11% YoY and 5.6% QoQ.</li>
<li>Management expects upstream earnings to decline by USD 0.6-1 billion due to falling crude oil prices. Earnings from the energy products segment are also projected to drop significantly.</li>
<li>Exxon expects production in 2024 to be around 4.3 Moebd, with 1.2 Moebd coming from the Permian. The total capex for the year is estimated at USD 28 billion.</li>
</ul>


ExxonMobil’s Q3 revenue is expected to rise 6.3% YoY and 3.7% QoQ but its EPS is anticipated to fall 11% YoY and 5.6% QoQ.
Management expects upstream earnings to decline by USD 0.6-1 billion due to falling crude oil prices. Earnings from the energy products segment are also projected to drop significantly.
Exxon expects production in 2024 to be around 4.3 Moebd, with 1.2 Moebd coming from the Permian. The total capex for the year is estimated at USD 28 billion.


[Earnings Preview] Exxon's Q3 Profit Faces Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Tight Refining Margins

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 27/Sep, US crude inventories rose by 3.9m barrels, contrasting expectations of a 1.5m barrel drawdown. Gasoline stockpiles also unexpectedly grew.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 55 Bcf for the week ending 27/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 59 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger have all experienced target price downgrades, while Exxon Mobil received an upward revision to its target price. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded Occidental to Neutral.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 27/Sep, US crude inventories rose by 3.9m barrels, contrasting expectations of a 1.5m barrel drawdown. Gasoline stockpiles also unexpectedly grew.
US natural gas inventories rose 55 Bcf for the week ending 27/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 59 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger have all experienced target price downgrades, while Exxon Mobil received an upward revision to its target price. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded Occidental to Neutral.


[ETP 2024/40] WTI Prices Surge as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise; Nat-Gas Rallies on Output Cuts

<ul>
<li>Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.</li>
<li>The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.</li>
<li>Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.
The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.
Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.


[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 20/Sep, US crude inventories declined by 4.5m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 1.3m barrel drawdown. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also decreased more than analyst estimates.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rise 47 Bcf for the week ending 20/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 52 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 7.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>BP and Shell experienced rating downgrades and target price reductions, while TotalEnergies and Exxon Mobil saw upward revisions in their target prices.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 20/Sep, US crude inventories declined by 4.5m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 1.3m barrel drawdown. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also decreased more than analyst estimates.
US natural gas inventories rise 47 Bcf for the week ending 20/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 52 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 7.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.
BP and Shell experienced rating downgrades and target price reductions, while TotalEnergies and Exxon Mobil saw upward revisions in their target prices.


[ETP 2024/39] WTI Prices Slip as Supply Concerns Ease; Nat-Gas Soars on Strong Demand Expectations

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 13/Sep, US crude inventories dropped by 1.6m barrels, surpassing the expected 0.2m barrel decline. Gasoline stockpiles grew less than forecasted, while distillate inventories rose more.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rise 58 Bcf for the week ending 13/Sep, more than analyst expectations of a 53 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 8.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, and Exxon Mobil see target price cuts. DBS Bank initiated a Buy rating on Schlumberger and Halliburton.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 13/Sep, US crude inventories dropped by 1.6m barrels, surpassing the expected 0.2m barrel decline. Gasoline stockpiles grew less than forecasted, while distillate inventories rose more.
US natural gas inventories rise 58 Bcf for the week ending 13/Sep, more than analyst expectations of a 53 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 8.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, and Exxon Mobil see target price cuts. DBS Bank initiated a Buy rating on Schlumberger and Halliburton.


[ETP 2024/38] Oil Rises on Fed Rate Cut and Geopolitics; Nat-Gas Gains on Warmer Forecasts

United States

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

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Chevron Corp (CVX US)

[Earnings Preview] Exxon's Q3 Profit Faces Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Tight Refining Margins

Falling crude prices and tightening refining margins are expected to hit Q3 profits. Analysts predict a dip in EPS but see revenue growth. Exxon’s...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/40] WTI Prices Surge as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise; Nat-Gas Rallies on Output Cuts

WTI rose amid heightened supply concerns after Iran's missile attacks on Israel, yet long-term demand worries persist. US nat-gas reached a 16-week...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Chevron’s short-term outlook is gloomy due to weak oil prices and global oil demand amid regulatory complications with its Hess purchase. In Q3,...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/39] WTI Prices Slip as Supply Concerns Ease; Nat-Gas Soars on Strong Demand Expectations

WTI reversed gains as supply disruptions eased amid persistent demand worries. In contrast, nat-gas prices surged on expectations of strong demand...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/38] Oil Rises on Fed Rate Cut and Geopolitics; Nat-Gas Gains on Warmer Forecasts

Oil prices are rising as demand prospects improve. Natural gas prices recovered due to warmer weather forecasts. TotalEnergies received a target...

Mint Finance

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