Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.</li><li>To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is ending the week and starting the month somewhat on the defensive versus most major currencies although the DXY itself is little changed on the day.</li><li>FX is consolidating yesterday’s broad dollar gains which stalled right on the DXY’s 200-day MA (103.59). US Treasury yields are flat on the day while stocks are trading positively.</li><li>Despite yesterday’s recovery in the USD, headwinds—lower yields specifically but seasonal trends in December and broadly bearish technicals—all suggest more USD softness ahead in the next few weeks and perhaps beyond. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is ending the week and starting the month somewhat on the defensive versus most major currencies although the DXY itself is little changed on the day.FX is consolidating yesterday’s broad dollar gains which stalled right on the DXY’s 200-day MA (103.59). US Treasury yields are flat on the day while stocks are trading positively.Despite yesterday’s recovery in the USD, headwinds—lower yields specifically but seasonal trends in December and broadly bearish technicals—all suggest more USD softness ahead in the next few weeks and perhaps beyond. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Fed Comments

<ul><li>Comments from Fed hawk Waller that he was encouraged by what policymakers had learned recently pressured US yields and the USD yesterday.</li><li>Additional comments on how quickly—hypothetically—rates could fall saw front-end yields rally.</li><li>Waller’s colleague Bowman was a bit more measured in her remarks but markets sense that the Fed cycle is done and focus is shifting to the timing of rate cuts. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Comments from Fed hawk Waller that he was encouraged by what policymakers had learned recently pressured US yields and the USD yesterday.Additional comments on how quickly—hypothetically—rates could fall saw front-end yields rally.Waller’s colleague Bowman was a bit more measured in her remarks but markets sense that the Fed cycle is done and focus is shifting to the timing of rate cuts. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Edges Off Low but Headwinds Remain

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is narrowly mixed against the major currencies in calm trade.</li><li>Global stocks are mostly lower on the session while major bond markets are slightly softer, driving 10Y bond yields a tick or so higher.</li><li>US 10Y bond yields fell some 10bps yesterday, adding to pressure on the USD broadly. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is narrowly mixed against the major currencies in calm trade.Global stocks are mostly lower on the session while major bond markets are slightly softer, driving 10Y bond yields a tick or so higher.US 10Y bond yields fell some 10bps yesterday, adding to pressure on the USD broadly. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily – USD Mixed but Lower Yields Weigh

<ul><li>The holiday-delayed CFTC data were worth the wait. The overall change in positioning reflected in this week’s data was significant.</li><li>Aggregate USD longs held by NonCommercial (speculative) traders were slashed in half ahead of the Thanksgiving break; overall speculative USD longs dropped USD5.4bn in the week to USD5.1bn.</li><li>In addition, data showed Real Money (institutional accounts) boosting net USD shorts by around USD7bn while Leveraged (hedge) Funds raised their aggregate USD longs by around USD500mn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The holiday-delayed CFTC data were worth the wait. The overall change in positioning reflected in this week’s data was significant.Aggregate USD longs held by NonCommercial (speculative) traders were slashed in half ahead of the Thanksgiving break; overall speculative USD longs dropped USD5.4bn in the week to USD5.1bn.In addition, data showed Real Money (institutional accounts) boosting net USD shorts by around USD7bn while Leveraged (hedge) Funds raised their aggregate USD longs by around USD500mn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report – Traders Slash USD Longs

Switzerland

The Swiss franc is the official currency of Switzerland.

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CHF (USDCHF CURNCY)

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Fed Comments

The USD is ending the week and starting the month somewhat on the defensive versus most major currencies although the DXY itself is little changed...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Edges Off Low but Headwinds Remain

Comments from Fed hawk Waller that he was encouraged by what policymakers had learned recently pressured US yields and the USD yesterday.

Scotiabank

FX Daily – USD Mixed but Lower Yields Weigh

lobal stocks are mostly lower on the session while major bond markets are slightly softer, driving 10Y bond yields a tick or so higher.

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report – Traders Slash USD Longs

The holiday-delayed CFTC data were worth the wait. The overall change in positioning reflected in this week’s data was significant.

Scotiabank

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)